{ "episodeId": "SLP266", "speakers": { "stephan": { "name": "Stephan Livera", "role": "host", "tag": "STEPHAN" }, "croesus_btc": { "name": "Croesus_BTC", "role": "guest", "tag": "CROESUS_BTC" }, "guest_2": { "name": "Guest 2", "role": "guest", "tag": "GUEST" } }, "segments": [ { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "00:09", "start": 9.45, "text": "Hi, you're listening to Stephan Livera podcast, a show about Bitcoin. Today, for episode two hundred and sixty-six, my guest is Croesus BTC. Croesus has written a number of interesting articles and has created some interesting content around Bitcoin and explaining it in simple ways. So today we talk about some of these ideas around why the yuppie elite don't like Bitcoin. Making simplified Bitcoin content, as well as staking your claim on your share of Bitcoin." }, { "speaker": "croesus_btc", "time": "00:40", "start": 40.31, "text": "Tweeting Stephan Livera fans. This is Dread here, and I have some big news to share. Swan Bitcoin's new private client services division is open for business. So last August, Michael Strategy's CEO, Michael Saylor, kicked off the trend of companies buying Bitcoin for their balance sheets. A flood of high-profile investors and companies have joined him, names like Paul Tudor Jones, BlackRock, Square, and Tesla. Swan Private exists to meet the massive international demand from thousands of companies, family offices, and high-net-worth investors from all around the globe. If you're thinking of buying between one hundred thousand and one hundred million US dollars worth of Bitcoin over the next year, visit swanbitcoin dot com slash private. That's swanbitcoin dot com slash private. Follow it Onboarding form, or email the CEO personally, cory at swanbitcoin dot com, that's c o r y at swanbitcoin dot com. Respect funds" }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "01:40", "start": 100.1, "text": "on one law. 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Compos is an online marketplace making it easier for everyone to mine Bitcoin and enhance the Bitcoin network's security. Compos helps you buy your own ASIC and secure hosting at great facilities around the world that they have vetted for you. So for years we've heard that mining's only profitable if you're investing tons of money, but now with CompuSt, you can tap into the economies of scale and access reasonably priced hardware and cheap industrial power rates. So if you're unsure about how to get started, CompuSt offers hardware and hosting bundles eliminating the need for advanced technical knowledge. Check out my recent episode with Whit Gibbs, episode two hundred fifty nine, and go visit them at CompuStMining dot io to start mining today. And now onto the show. Croesus, welcome to the show. Happy to be here. So, Croesus, I've been following some of your work, I'm a fan, I like, a bunch of your articles and content you've been making, like the one about the yuppie elite. You also had one about the speculative attack, or kind of like a continuation of Pierre Rochard's speculative attack i-idea, and also some of the images you've been doing, you've really helped in some ways clarify and simplify some of the material that, you know, I and many others have And easy to understand terms. So, let's hear a little bit about you. Obviously, I know you're under a pseudonym, so don't dox anything about yourself, but maybe just what was it that appealed to you about Bitcoin?" }, { "speaker": "guest_2", "time": "03:52", "start": 231.95, "text": "Yeah, so, so I, a little bit of a background about sort of how I stumbled into it all. I, I come from a business background. I, I got an MBA, the best business school in the world, that when I was there, some of the more technical people in my class were, were buzzing about Ethereum," }, { "speaker": "guest_2", "time": "04:12", "start": 251.8, "text": "was smart enough to realize that, that they were excited for some reason, and I didn't understand, and I should try to find out more. And so I stumbled down the Ethereum rabbit hole back in, in twenty sixteen. And the ethos that I was immersed in, was very much the Internet playbook, Internet investing, technology investing, the sort of, you know, venture capitalist mindset about trying to invest in innovation to have a diversified portfolio of, of up and coming- New project in an emerging technology space, sort of the, the Silicon Valley, you know, established wisdom after several decades of learning in technology investing, and so I was an altcoin for, for, from twenty sixteen until twenty nineteen, and, you know, that worked great, on the way up, and, and then I wrote it all the way back down, you know, the altcoins outperformed Bitcoin in twenty seventeen, and I thought I was a genius, I thought I was onto something, and then Massively underperformed Bitcoin in, in twenty eighteen and, and I was humbled. You know, Bitcoin humbles everyone, and I had to be, I had to be bludgeoned, to be disabused of my notion that this was like the Internet two point oh, that this, that this, asset class was something where a multi-coin, future w-would exist and you would be smart to diversify and invest in up-and-coming projects that had to get, I had to be disabused of that notion through a terrible, terrible, bear market. and then--" }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "05:49", "start": 348.73, "text": "So tell us a little bit about that, like what, what made you stop and rethink that idea? Yeah," }, { "speaker": "guest_2", "time": "05:54", "start": 354.23, "text": "I, I, I think that it really took like being so wrong that I was open to considering what the crazy Bitcoin maximalists were, were talking about. You know, every time that I would peek into, you know, this was-- I, I formed my opinions about Bitcoin maximalism in 2016. 2017 period, and it was so hardcore, you know, the, the, the people who were Bitcoin only were, pretty gruff characters, and, and pretty intense, and, and it, it didn't make sense because I was, I was coming from this worldview, this, this, business person worldview, this investing worldview, of, of technology is all about innovation and, and, having a diversified portfolio in innovation. And so it, it took, it took the market proving to me me that I was missing something so in fervently that I had to go look into, okay, fine, what is the Bitcoin maximalist point of view? What am I missing? And I, you know, finally read the Bitcoin standard and realized that I thought I had gone down the rabbit hole already. I thought that I was already enlightened about the importance of digital value in the future, but that was when I realized that there's sort of, there, there's two stages to going down the rabbit hole, if you, you know, if you wanna break it into two big- Big steps. One is, is being open to digital value as an important part of the future of assets, which I was already there. And anyone who's in Ethereum or any, or altcoins, they're, they're, they believe that they are, are already at that point. But I hadn't realized what Bitcoin was. You know, I hadn't figured out that, oh, this is much deeper than, technology innovation. This isn't even really about technology. This is about money, and this is, about- Scarcity and like the deepest level of, of society and human civilization being based on, you know, the scariest money, and, and the sort of Darwinian reality of money being in constant competition with other forms of money, and the scariest form wins over time. I hadn't-- that, that was so much deeper than what I had entertained as possible that it, you know, it, it took that bear market for me to, to open my eyes to that possibility and then go to that second level." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "08:13", "start": 492.88, "text": "Yeah, that's very cool because it's like when we're in this space and quote unquote space, there's all these people who look from the outside and they look at those of us in the Bitcoin, focused group or Bitcoin only camp, where they say, \"Oh, look, you guys are just tribal. Why can't you just get along with everyone else? And, you know, just let us all, you know, do...\" And, and then from our point of view, we're kind of like, \"Well, a lot of this stuff is basically scamming, and you guys A curry favor, or you wanna win them over, and you obviously catch more flies with honey, and you pretend to be all nice, and this is all this big collaborative industry, and, you know, it's kind of that-- I guess those are the different views. so for you, you read the Bitcoin Standard, and then what other material did you kind of go through? What was your process of thinking about it and then changing your mind?" }, { "speaker": "guest_2", "time": "09:03", "start": 543.12, "text": "Yeah, so I, I think it's a lot, it's a lot easier now, right? when I was starting in," }, { "speaker": "guest_2", "time": "09:12", "start": 551.5, "text": "Very thoughtful, like truly inc, incisive, explanation as to like what Bitcoin was doing, why it was doing it. You know, the stock to flow model was only created in, in twenty nineteen, and, and the Bitcoin standard was released in twenty eighteen. VJ's, the bullish case for Bitcoin was, was early twenty eighteen as well. so yeah, the, those, those resources were super helpful. And then, I have a, a fondness for Parker Lewis and, and Breidt Love, they're very different writing styles, I think hit on the, the business, Parker with the more classical, like business angle, and, and understanding money a little bit, more classically, and, and Breedlove with this like philosophy element that I think is necessary to understand the scale, the magnitude of what Bitcoin represents for humanity, going from, literally going from, for all of human history, we've only had physical forms of money. And we've been using physical forms of money for seventy-five thousand years, at least, that's what, the documented evidence of, of using shells in caves goes back seventy-five thousand years. And then now we're living in the digital revolution, and i-information has been digitized, that's the internet, but value hasn't been yet, and that's what we're starting to live through now, the, the complement to the internet revolution is the Bitcoin revolution. evolution. The scale of that, meaning like for all of human history we've been analog, physical, and right now in this window of time, in our lifetime, we are transitioning to digital value, meaning we're, we're hot swapping out the base layer of human civilization. During our lifetimes. that, I don't know, that philosophical element, I think, was one of the key pieces for me to, to make everything else click together. So, I think that largely came from Breedlove. Awesome." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "11:12", "start": 672.02, "text": "Yeah. And so basically, I really enjoyed one of your recent articles, this is going back a couple months now, but it was talking about why the yuppie elite dismiss Bitcoin. So I think that it's, it's kind of like, there's all this material out there, but now some of them- Maybe they haven't taken the time to actually read it or listen to it, but some of them have seen it and still don't see the point of Bitcoin. So maybe you wanna tell us a little, a little bit about who these people are, and then why is it that they can't see what we see?" }, { "speaker": "guest_2", "time": "11:44", "start": 703.92, "text": "Yeah. so, the, the, yeah, the, this, this has been, an ongoing phenomenon, I guess, in, in my personal life and my friend groups of I've gone down this rabbit hole and I've been telling everybody in my Life, what, you know, sharing my excitement and, and telling them they, they need to look into this, and different groups in my life have listened, but my MBA friends haven't, for the most part. And, and this kind of, this, this frustration, this fascination with why they hadn't, really kind of crystallized during, during the like early pandemic period when, I don't know about you, but like my friend groups were, we, we had like Like a Thursday night Zoom happy hour that we did every week for, you know, the first couple months when that was still exciting, and I, of course, wanted to talk about Bitcoin, and I was just like trying to nudge the conversation towards that, and, and they would always like mock me or, or like very openly dismiss it and change the topic whenever I tried to like poke them about, you know, you should really look into Bitcoin. And so that, that, I guess that, contrast between- meeting my MBA friends and other friend groups, really stuck out to me. And when I tried to think about like what was driving that, like what was the core reason why this friend group, these super smart people, were uninterested in, in this revolution in money, you know, despite being MBAs, that, that should be in the wheelhouse, but they were dismissive and, you know, borderline hostile to it. when I really thought about it, it seemed to me that the core reason was not how smart- smart they were, because they were clearly super smart, but instead how much trust they had in the system. so my MBA friends, all of us, jumped through a lot of hoops to get, you know, into a top MBA program, and we're all, you know, classic yuppies, work hard for, for companies, and, you know, put in sixty-hour workweeks and, and, and think that that's the, the way forward towards, you know, a brighter financial future is to put your head down, work hard, and, and get promotions and, Opportunities that way, and to have that sort of life path requires having a lot of trust, faith in the system, faith that if you're a good employee, a good foot soldier, you will be rewarded. And, and I think that's kind of the, the common-- one of the common values that, that all yuppies, you know, young urban professionals who are willing to, to live that kind of life, they all ha-share that perspective. And that's not necessarily true of everyone, some people don't trust the system, and in fact, libertarians- Anarchists, crypto anarchists, the, even Trump supporters tend not to trust the system as much or if at all, you know, and in fact, that's who we see adopting Bitcoin earlier, the earliest being, you know, the crypto anarchists, the people who, who were so paranoid and freaked out about the infringement of the state on their rights that they wanted a way out of the financial, the banking system and wanted to seize their privacy in the digital space. those are the people People who adopted Bitcoin first. And so if you put it on a two by two matrix, the classic consulting thing, you know, you have to forgive my consulting, you can, you can take the, the yuppie out of consulting, but he'll always make slides. So I put it on a two by two, and what came out is, you know, if you, if you graph on, on the y-axis, IQ, and on the x-axis, from left to right, tr- trust in the system. Bitcoiners are in the top left. The, they They have low trust in the system and are very smart, and yuppies are in the top right, high trust in the system and very smart. And, and those are, those are like, and that, like the, the core differences in worldview, I think, stem from that, from that fundamental base layer, disparity in, in how those two groups view the system and the world generally." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "15:53", "start": 952.71, "text": "Yeah, I love that way of thinking about it because fundamentally, the experience you had is very similar to what many Bitcoin people have had, because what many of us would have found, obviously the closer you are to somebody, like if they're a close family or a close friend, that they're more likely to hear you out. But typically, anyone who isn't close family or close friends often wouldn't really even pay the, pay you the time of day, or give you that attention, or give you a chance to actually explain why Bitcoin is important. And so for many of us, over the years, we've spent time trying to teach our family and friends, and in many cases- Just completely fail to have it actually resonate with them, to have the Bitcoin message resonate with that family or friend or work colleague, and, you know, they, they tend to just be stuck talking about other things. And so they, they will be constantly chasing other ideas or ways of preserving their wealth, so they will be looking at property or stocks or bonds or, you know, maybe even some other crazy ideas out there, but you just can't seem to get through to them on why Bitcoin actually fixes so many of the issues. Yeah, that," }, { "speaker": "guest_2", "time": "16:58", "start": 1018.27, "text": "that, I think you nailed an, another point there, that like, the, the more you know about business, the more you have to unlearn to, to entertain the potential merit of Bitcoin, because you're so bogged down with like, you know, pre-existing notions about what is the right or wrong way of, of building wealth and investing generally. And, and, and I, that's natural, but it's, it's ironic because people, the result of that is people- People who have dedicated their lives to, to business and investing, and we, we see this with venture capitalists now, trying to wade into crypto and, and make a name for themselves as experts. But yeah, the, the more you, you have spent, your life, you know, establishing a, a, a framework for what is true and not true and what's the right way to go about things, the, the less open you are to something that totally breaks this paradigm, and completely undoes everything You think you know about how money works in, you know, in this fiat system that is-- that has only existed for half a century, but, long enough that it's all we know, and, and Bitcoin stands so staunchly outside of that that it's, it's hard to wrap your head around it unless you're coming at it from a truly fresh and open mindset, and that I think I, I, I see more from my non-yuppie friends, people who are open to learning for the first time, you know, where's a good place to put my money? They, they're, they're totally open to Bitcoin's message, or more open to it, than somebody who h- already, you know, firmly believes that just investing in, in a diversified stock portfolio is the, the best thing you can possibly do with your money." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "18:45", "start": 1124.88, "text": "Yeah, and I think you make a really good point around the, I don't know the right word to put this, but people feel or they have already advanced up the hierarchy, so to speak, the normal kind of society hierarchy, and they feel feel that now Bitcoin is representing a challenge to some of that, right? If you're a, whatever, a senior person in some kind of banking organization or some organization that only does well in the fiat world, then it, you might at some level perceive Bitcoin as a threat against that. But I think it's also for other people, it's just a straight category error. So people are thinking of it, and so I've mentioned this often, is that they are thinking, \"Oh, it's just like a stock or a bond, and it should have a dividend payment or it should have an interest payment rented out and it pays me rent, and Bitcoin doesn't have any of that, so therefore Bitcoin must be a bad investment. How much of it, do you think is that category error aspect?" }, { "speaker": "guest_2", "time": "19:37", "start": 1177.22, "text": "Yeah, a, a ton of it. I, I, I wrote in, in, the Yuppy Elite article about, about how Bitcoin has this subtle camouflage, where, in, in subtle camouflage in, in many ways, where in, in, in one way, it, it has a lot of red flags when you first look into it, 'cause it sounds like a" }, { "speaker": "guest_2", "time": "19:58", "start": 1197.55, "text": "Bitcoin community has even embraced the, the joke of it, you know, of it being a Ponzi, because from the outside it, it shares the characteristics of, of a Ponzi, of people who get in early, make more money, but that's also, if you dig way deeper, it turns out that's what happens when an asset goes from being worth nothing, bootstrapping its or-- itself to being a, a store of value, like whoever was there first makes more money. so, you know, there are these red flags up front, and then People don't know how to think about it, 'cause it doesn't fit into any of the established asset classes that, that people are familiar with. It's, it's not a stock, it's not a bond, it's not, it's not quite money, really. It's something bigger than that, it's something more amorphous. It's, you know, it's not a commodity, but it is a commodity. it, it, it's its own brand new thing. It, it really is a, the first new asset class that, that society has seen This is the only time a, a new asset class truly, you know, like you could say venture capital didn't exist a half century ago, but, but that was just, just early stage equity. And so this is really like the first time a, a truly new asset class has ever existed. And that's why we're so bad at, at trying to assess what it is and, and define its nature and understand it. This has just never happened in history before. We've never-- 'cause we've never had a shift from physical to digital, and so we're all experiencing- This for the first time." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "21:29", "start": 1289.33, "text": "And in terms of Bitcoin being adopted, it's also an interesting aspect around monetary competition, because that's something we talk about and we try to explain that to people, but perhaps to an outsider, that might look like, \"Oh, you Bitcoin people, you are overly sure of yourselves. How can you be so sure that, you know, it's Bitcoin is gonna be the one? \" How do you sort of answer those kinds of questions or think about that?" }, { "speaker": "guest_2", "time": "21:57", "start": 1316.53, "text": "Yeah, I- It's so fascinating that if you're, if, unless you're down, down here deep in the rabbit hole with us, we sound crazy. you know, if you're an Ethereum fan, you know, in the first layer of the rabbit hole, who, who believes the digital value is, of course that's gonna be, important and yada yada. Bitcoiners sound crazy, to, to them even, and, and they're involved in crypto. And yeah, so to a, to a total normie, this whole idea is, is," }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "22:29", "start": 1348.57, "text": "Yeah, and what about this whole winner takes all idea?" }, { "speaker": "guest_2", "time": "22:31", "start": 1351.13, "text": "Yeah, so I guess w-when you, when you take the step, the, the final leap down to, you know, the, the true Bitcoin maximalist level of understanding in the rabbit hole, the essential thrust of that is to come to grips with Bitcoin's space in the monetary landscape and to understand that money is in competition constantly, this Darwinian element that you mentioned, and I think that That the Bitcoin Standard does such a good job of introducing this, walking you through monetary history. The first third of the book is just a walk through monetary history, and the reader is left to infer conclusions about the nature of money just through that historical, journey. For anybody who hasn't read that book yet, it's a must. And you come away from that and from more reading about the history of money and, and money generally, shelling out by Zabos and other incredible- Resource. understanding that every individual has a, has a choice every single day about which, which money to store their hard-earned value in. where do you store your wealth? And invariably, people gravitate towards whichever form of money is hardest to produce more of. For all of human history, that has meant gold. So whenever a civilization that, that used an alternative to gold came into contact with a civilization that used gold, it was easier for the civiliz- Civilization that used gold as their money to create more of the money of their new adversary than vice versa. So if a civilization valued glass beads, which is one of the examples that Breedlove talks about, it's easy to make more glass beads, it's really easy, if you have the technology. And so it's easy to, to float, like, to just create a bunch of new glass beads and then use those newly produced beads to purchase the assets that are owned by That civilization that values glass beads, until they figure out that glass beads can no longer be trusted, and the thing that, that we should be relying on in storing our wealth in is, is the thing that this new civilization relies on, which is gold. So that story played out through all of human history, and I sort of like to think about it as like a, like a, a sports tournament bracket, you know, of all these different competitors going head to head, and gold eventually Eventually emerged the champion, and that's on one side of the bracket here, but now we've got a new competitor coming in from the digital space, and it's Bitcoin, and it has superior monetary properties because unlike gold, which has two percent new supply being created every year, Bitcoin has a terminal hard cap supply, so it is infinitely harder to make more Bitcoin than it is to make more gold, and gold has been historically the champion, in the, in the physical realm. So So if we can extrapolate that lesson from monetary history, looking back at how this has played out, every time there's been competing money, in every civilization conflict before, what we can extrapolate is that the hardest money ends up winning because it's from an individual point of view, people learn that that's the thing to store their wealth in if they wanna keep their wealth, and, and that's the position that Bitcoin finds itself in as, as the one and only credible form of, of digital scarcity that's now going- Going to eat the lunch of every other form of store of value that has, has supply growth over time." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "26:04", "start": 1564.42, "text": "Yeah. And I think it's also interesting just to chat about the adoption, because as people come in, they might start more at, you know, what we might hypothetically or we might just say they're more like a toadipper, like they've just started, they're just dipping their toe, and then over time, they actually, you know, people tend to increase their investment. So, I, I know you did a thread a little while back on this also, where you were To categorize some of the different levels, so I, I know obviously the numbers that you brought up in that thread might be a little bit out of date now, but in terms of the high level framework, do you mind spelling that out?" }, { "speaker": "guest_2", "time": "26:39", "start": 1599.46, "text": "So yeah, you hear different numbers, batted around about how many people have adopted Bitcoin or, or cryptocurrencies generally, and they're all over the place. a common one you hear though is like a hundred and fifty million people, and, and that just felt really high to me. So, you know, as a former consultant, I I wanted to like run the numbers and, and see it for myself. And, and I think for any, any skeptical young professionals out there who are trying to assess the merits of Bitcoin, I encourage you guys to, to do the same of just run the numbers, run some simple numbers to see from all sorts of angles to take stock of, of how early it is, because it's hard to imagine that Bitcoin at fifty-eight thousand dollars per coin or whatever we're at is still really early, but when you run the numbers It, it, this, the, the scale of it comes into focus. So, so I wanted to, to figure out how many people have actually stored a meaningful amount of their wealth in Bitcoin form. And luckily, there's, you know, we have on-chain numbers. So you can see that there are, three million addresses with zero point one Bitcoin or more, in them. And of course, that's not one to one with, you know, each address is owned by one person and, and all that, so it's a little fuzzy, but, but- Let's use that broad number, and then let's account for how many people probably are keeping it on, exchanges too, and call that ten million. So ten million people have, have to date, stored six thousand dollars or more in, in Bitcoin format. ten million sounds like a lot, but that's a pretty small number if you're thinking globally. So how many people in the world have wealth to store? Two point two billion people in the world have, ten thousand dollars or more Of wealth. So if that's our, if that's what we think of as the potential adopters of a digital store of value, then ten million is only half a percent of that l-ar-- of that two point two billion group. So in terms of meaningful adoption of Bitcoin, we're only half a percent into the adoption curve. And, this is a, a framework that I think about a lot, and I, you know, I, I, it comes from previous, from the study of previous technology And how it was adopted, whether that's radio or television or, or the internet, but invariably we follow as humans a, a S curve when we adopt a technology, meaning that adoption of it is really slow at first and then starts to pick up as more and more of us try it and, you know, broadcast its benefits to our friends and family and the network effects pick up and it becomes more attractive to adopt that technology. so, you know, it, it, it ends up looking like an S of slow at first First, then really fast, and then tails off to a plateau. the, the rate of change of that, the derivative of, of that shape is the classic bell curve, right? Where on the left side we've got our innovators, people who are at the extreme edge of, you know, early adoption of a new technology, then your early adopters, then your, early majority, late majority, and, and laggards. And the first, I think it's like two percent, is typically considered the innovators. and we're only half a percent into our, our bell curve, so we're still in the first quarter of the first category of Bitcoin adoption, the, the, the, the freaks at the extreme edge who are, very forward-thinking and, quick to realize and adopt the benefits of a new technology. So when you run those numbers, it's really early still." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "30:22", "start": 1821.83, "text": "Back to the show in a moment. Lend at HodlHodl is a non-custodial Bitcoin backed- Lending platform so you can lend and borrow globally and anonymously. There's no KYC here. You don't have to leave your stablecoins lying around, you can lend them and earn attractive returns. 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They will ship you some hardware wallets, they'll answer your questions, and deposit a thousand dollars of Bitcoin in your vault. Use the code Laverre and you'll get a discount there An OTC desk for purchases fifty thousand dollars or higher directly into that new vault that you create. This is a great option if you've got a self-directed Bitcoin retirement account or you are a corporate looking to move to a Bitcoin corporate or business treasury. Unchained Capital have all sorts of content on their blog also, so go and check them out, unchained dot com for more info. Back to the show. People looking at it from the outside or when they're relatively new, they still look at it thinking, \"Oh, look how expensive it is, I missed out.\" And the reality is, even for me, I came in in twenty thirteen and I felt like I was late. So I think it's one of those things where whoever you speak to, whenever they joined, they always felt late. But if you really zoom out and look at the actual numbers here, it is just crazy how early we still are. and as you were saying, normally that first two and a half percent of the human population Is in that little classical bell curve thing you see, and we're not even there yet. We're not even finished that, so it may well be that, you know, there are maybe, who, who knows, right? I'm speculating, but there might be important contributors to Bitcoin who've not even started yet. You know, there might be someone who comes in in, in the next few years, who then becomes later, goes on to become an important contributor in the Bitcoin ecosystem. That is just how small we are right now." }, { "speaker": "guest_2", "time": "33:54", "start": 2034.14, "text": "Yeah. and that's a topic I think about a Here today, when I thought about, you know, what takes Bitcoin further through the adoption curve, through the bell curve, it's the viral propagation of its benefit propagated by early adopters to their network, and the way that's done is, is through communicating, through educating, through transmitting what people have learned or come to know about Bitcoin to people who, you know, have yet to adopt. And when I thought about that more, it's, that's, that's how human groups- Work, right? Like that's why the S curve is what it is, that's why the bell curve functions in that way. is that people who figure out that something is, is worth using, worth looking into, worth adopting, they, they tell more than one of their friends, right? And, and convince more than one of their friends about this, and, and in turn, those people do the same. So that's, that's a, you know, positive viral coefficient that spreads through a population. But along with that is this process of- Of, of coming to understand and synthesize why something makes sense, why something is a good idea to adopt, a new technology is a good idea to use, and that's like the educational element of synthesizing what it is that's special about this thing, what, what it is about this that will add value to somebody's life, and communicating that to people who have yet to, to look into it. And, and that's what, that's what we're doing, that's what, podcasts like yours are doing, and that's why I started, putting out Graphics and other, articles about Bitcoin is because, it's, it's in my self-interest to communicate the benefits of Bitcoin to others so that they realize it's in their self-interest to also adopt Bitcoin. And so I'm trying to do my part to, synthesize and, and like reduce the, the essence of Bitcoin down to a little bit more simplified and understandable data points or, or anecdotes. That can help the next slice in the bell curve get it, so that they can in turn do the same for, for the next slice after them." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "36:09", "start": 2168.99, "text": "Yeah, of course. And I think it's funny because in the recent years, we've started using a lot more of these short form memes, you know, number go up, Bitcoin fixes this, you know, orange coin good, and various things like that. And, I've also noticed you've got some good graphics as well. And so I guess those are your effort at simplifying some of the material. Real down for people, because the average person is going through life, they're storing money in, you know, US dollar or whatever their fiat money is, and they're not really thinking very hard about purchasing power, and purchasing power is actually what matters, isn't it?" }, { "speaker": "guest_2", "time": "36:44", "start": 2204.47, "text": "Yeah, the-- it's, it's so unfair that we go through life, with this idea of, of points on the board, you know, with, with dollars, but that, that measuring stick is constantly moving, it's constantly inflating. We printed twenty-six percent more dollars in twenty- 2020. And, and it's part of human psychology that we don't update our measuring stick so easily or, or naturally. So, yeah, I think a, a big part of the educational push that, that Bitcoiners can and should make is to really clarify in, in, in, in quite simple terms the difference between holding, holding one Bitcoin, which is a fixed percentage of a twenty-one million Bitcoin pie forever, versus holding fifty thousand- dollars, and that is a percentage today that will shrink very rapidly over time, and that means your purchasing power is shrinking very rapidly over time. And yeah, that, I think that's, I mean, it talk about, a product that, that has massive benefits, and just needs to have those benefits articulated to potential adopters. It's, it's a night and day difference in how people are choosing to store their value, and, you know, once you, once you To recognize the difference and under-- and get comfortable with the idea of holding Bitcoin in lieu of dollars, which you're familiar with, it, I can't even tell you how much better you sleep at night." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "38:12", "start": 2292.25, "text": "Yeah, and I noticed as well that for people as they go on their Bitcoin journey, towards the end of that, once they get sort of towards the orange, like, final orange pill level, is they start actually thinking about things in Bitcoin terms, or at least they are, at least doing that comparative every now and again. And thinking of things, okay, what's my net worth in Bitcoin or sat terms rather than thinking of it all in fiat terms. so is that something you've noticed as well in your discussions?" }, { "speaker": "guest_2", "time": "38:41", "start": 2320.65, "text": "Yeah, absolutely. you know, my, my measuring stick has switched, because I, I don't see the value of a measuring stick that's constantly moving, and, and what I value now, my, my unit of account is Bitcoin. And yeah, I think, I think it's that, that's another part of the like understanding money and, and The monetary history and the Darwinian nature of money is coming to, to understand the nature of how a money, gains its emergent monetary properties. it's not by being, a good medium of exchange, it's not by having the capacity for a lot of transactions per second, it's instead this, this arc that you're familiar with, but, of, of first it has to be valued by a small group of people as a collectible and then as- As more people value that collectible, it becomes, it starts to evolve into a store of value that can be relied upon to store value, you know, instead of just being a fun thing to own, it's now a store of value that you, that you fundamentally know other people also value, such that you can store your value in it, what's called a intersubjective value. It goes from being a collectible that has value to a few people to achieving intersubjective value, where you know a whole social group values it, and then And once it achieves that, then it can potentially be used in trade as a medium of exchange to finalize transactions. And then once people are using it in that way, once the whole society is using it in that way, it becomes the de facto measuring stick, the unit of account for a whole society. And, because of the, you know, the nature of, of the internet, we've already achieved that sort of small, small group of, of early adopters who have already gotten to that point point where they have established for themselves and for their internet community, a Bitcoin unit of account, Bitcoin standard. And, you know, as the propagation of Bitcoin's ben-benefits continues and the S-curve continues, that group will grow outwards. so it's, it's a beautiful thing to be watching in real time and, and something of, of such incredible, like, historical significance." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "40:54", "start": 2454.42, "text": "Yeah. And so for many people, when they start, when they're learning about Bitcoin, they have to think about Bitcoin versus other things. So they could, they could be buying stocks, property, bonds, holding it in cash, or even consuming. And I like one of the charts you did where you show each of them on a different trajectory, and so you can see, okay, Bitcoin is going up the most 'cause it's a scarce asset, it's increasing scarcity and early stage growth, because so basically it's just like the complete sweet spot, everything optimal. This is the thing to be holding, 'cause this thing is doing on average two hundred percent per year, then, you know, it's like a Trying to maximize the amount that you can hold, but then you compare that with, say, other things like, I don't know, equity or collectibles and art, how did you, think about, you know, making that chart and, what are you hoping to sort of convey for people?" }, { "speaker": "guest_2", "time": "41:45", "start": 2504.79, "text": "Yeah, and I'm glad you brought up that one 'cause I, I don't, I, candidly, I don't think I'll, I'll ever come up with a better chart than, than that. I think that might be as far as I can take" }, { "speaker": "guest_2", "time": "42:00", "start": 2520.3, "text": "On that. That chart is the summation of, of all of my accounting classes, everything I learned from accounting, and then everything I learned by going down the Bitcoin rabbit hole, you know, put into one chart, you know, of all the asset classes, you know, assets exist, exist in different classes with different characteristics, they, they have different DNA, and, and that's a, I put that, turned that, that s-slide, that chart into a, an article for Bitcoin Magazine, called Asset DNA. And talked about the speculative attack, expanding on Pierre Rochard's twenty fourteen article. And yeah, so different asset classes, appreciate or depreciate in value over time at different rates, whether that's because of, of depreciation of, of an asset like a car or land. Holding its value well or equities generating some yield, but there's never been in history an asset that has Bitcoin's, you know, core design, which stands in, in direct contrast with fiat design. Fiat, by definition, by its design, is i-intended to decay in value over time because of, it's an exponential decay function because they're printing a certain percentage more every year, and that decays the purchasing power of existing dollars. in contrast- Contrast to Bitcoin, which by its design has increasing scarcity. So to me, that, that is the essence of Bitcoin, and that has never existed in human history, an asset that has increasing scarcity. the only example I could really think of to help somebody try to, like, think about how this works or what this looks like is this is the phenomenon where when a famous painter dies, their, their work, goes up in value because the art world knows that that- That painter isn't gonna be making anymore. There's gonna be no more supply. So suddenly everything, that existing body of work becomes more valuable, just because of the, the reduction in new supply. And Bitcoin has that built into its monetary policy where every four years, it, it, it, you know, it doesn't, it's not a painter that fully dies and, you know, a hundred percent drop in new supply, but a fifty percent drop. So it has that same mechanic of, of guaranteed increasing scarcity every four Four years. So by definition, the, you know, the purchasing power of Bitcoin you hold today will increase in value because the supply and demand, balance will be thrown off and the price will have to drift upwards in order to reestablish equilibrium every single four years. So if you were to put that onto the chart of, of performance compared to all other forms of assets that we're familiar with, Bitcoin just is, you know, the, the highest performing asset over time. Now and into the future, because it has this characteristic that doesn't exist in any other asset class of increasing scarcity built into it. So, yeah, that's, that's, that chart was the summation of everything I learned about accounting and, and business, from a career in business and, and, going down the Bitcoin rabbit hole." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "45:06", "start": 2706.49, "text": "That's awesome. And, I think another interesting example, so obviously the painter example is a good one, and another good one listeners might be interested in is there are some, I think, historical episodes words where a central bank has gone kaput, and, the money that they previously made had then been used in that country. And I think this has happened, I bel- maybe it's in Iraq or some other countries where because of that central bank going down or that government going away, the actual money left behind had sort of on, like rel- in a relative sense, soared some value a little bit better because people knew they could trust that it wasn't gonna be inflated as much. So it's kind of a funny thing in that way. Obviously Bitcoin But, you know, obviously Bitcoin kills all of those, but just as a pedagogical example, just something to think about and help you understand the concept, that's, that's also there. And you've also spoken about the speculative attack, as, you know, my friend Pierre Rochard wrote about that in twenty fourteen, and I think your article that you wrote kind of took that forward a little bit, and I think you were also using this graph that we were talking about, or a form of it, to show, like, basically, this is, this is the play, this is What does it look like, and who can execute that kind of play?" }, { "speaker": "guest_2", "time": "46:21", "start": 2780.6, "text": "Yeah, yeah. So, so when I, when I made that chart of different asset classes, how they typically perform over time, on a logarithmic scale, and again, this is all like theoretical, highly simplified, I, I, you know, I'm not using raw data or anything, I'm sort of academically, theoretically putting down on paper how these mechanics work. Yeah, so when I created that slide, what, what jumped out to me was the diverging- Paths of Bitcoin going up into the right on a logarithmic scale and fiat going down into the right in terms of its purchasing power over time because they're printing more, constantly. And I realized that that kind of gets back to the core idea of, of Pierre's piece, Speculative Attack, the idea of which is that because, because Bitcoin is designed to increase in scarcity over time and as a result of that to increase in, in value over time and, and simultaneously The, the dollar's design is to decay, it's, it's decay by design, and, because of the, the reliable pr- printing into the future, the stated intent of central banks to keep printing and print more, you know that the purchasing power of a dollar today will drop over time. So Bitcoin's going up and the dollar's going down, and that gets back to this, this idea of the speculative attack of what if you could borrow dollars today and buy Bitcoin and wait? certain amount of time for this inherent divergence, this inborn, asset DNA difference to manifest, such that the, the value of the Bitcoin that you have purchased has vastly increased and you can then use a, a small portion of it to repay the dollar debt after enough time has elapsed. And enough time, roughly meaning like, you know, a halving cycle or more, so four years. And who can do that is anyone. Important caveat there. That, you know, it's not a guarantee, it's, it's just a theoretical calling attention to what appears to be the reality of the dollar versus Bitcoin. and anyone can do that if you are prepared to service the debt, you know, during the time that you have to wait for that disparity to, to appreciably manifest, or also in the event that you screw up, and you lose your keys, so the Bitcoin that you purchased is gone and you still have the debt and you have to repay that somehow. You need to be able to, to service that. But if you meet those conditions and you can find debt for a cheap enough rate, which many co-corporations can do right now, because they're basically giving away-- g-the Fed is giving away money at next to nothing because they're trying to, to stimulate everything. Because of that, MicroStrategy, for one, has already deployed this playbook of, I forget the exact numbers, but they took on, I actually don't remember the scale of it, but-" }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "49:17", "start": 2957.46, "text": "Billion dollars from one article." }, { "speaker": "guest_2", "time": "49:19", "start": 2959.16, "text": "Yeah, okay, that's what I thought. A billion dollars of debt, at, at a, at essentially zero percent interest rates. I don't remember how long, but enough to see at least one halving cycle, and they're already up like a hundred percent on that. We can call it a bet, but really it's an informed strategic move based on an understanding of the different nature of Bitcoin versus the dollar. And as more of the world and more corporations who have the balance sheets to support Taking on debt, as more of the world realizes that the, these assets have different natures, that their DNA points them in different directions in terms of their purchasing power over time, more people can and will execute the same playbook. And so I, I, I see MicroStrategy's play. You know, most people think it's crazy that, that, Michael Saylor has somehow lost his mind. You know, that he's, what could he possibly be thinking? He, or is he just betting the farm on Bitcoin in some, ill-informed gamble? But no, he's, he has already deduced himself, he has figured out this, divergent reality and has used the, the tools at his disposal to make the most of that. And I think more people will do the same as, as they come to understand Bitcoin and how it contrasts with the dollar better over time." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "50:39", "start": 3038.93, "text": "Of course. And so I guess in practice, though, there are differing abilities to execute on this particular strategy because- If you are a large public company, you can get credit far cheaper, or if you are a financial institution, you can get, you can get access to credit much cheaper, compared to, let's say, the retail pleb, you and me. But I think, nevertheless, there are still some things people can do. some people will even have home loans that they can redraw, some people will go take a personal loan. There are various strategies and options there, but I guess in terms of the cost of that capital, the- Is a pretty strong disparity there, because if you're a large, like, if you're a high net worth, you know, super high net worth guy who has connections and you can kind of find, you can get capital cheaper, then I guess you can access that kind of strategy a little bit cheaper. But, these are all things inside the, the fiat standard, right? So people can, get rewarded for playing the debt game well, because that's what a fiat standard rewards." }, { "speaker": "guest_2", "time": "51:41", "start": 3100.52, "text": "Right. Exactly. And, and that might be particularly true if we are approaching the, an end game The rate of printing accelerates and debt today diminishes a lot in, in its, real value versus the, the nominal rate that you, the, nominal amount of debt that you take on today." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "52:00", "start": 3119.75, "text": "Yeah, it seems really funny because in some ways, a lot of this stuff is just out there in the open, right? Like Bitcoin people, we've been talking about these strategies and these things for years and years and years, and they have now, like anyone who basically did these strategies, did very, very well, and yet it seems weird that, you know, the rest of the I'm only just now waking up to this, and I guess to some extent, I mean, I wonder what you think, but I guess the way I would think about it is that basically, even though the material is out there, there's podcasts, there's articles, there's books, there's all this stuff out there, but I think people don't execute on it because they are looking more at what their family and friends are doing, and it's not popular in those circles yet." }, { "speaker": "guest_2", "time": "52:40", "start": 3159.98, "text": "Right. Yeah. And we're, we're such social animals, and, and we're also so preoccupied with Like it's hard to, it's hard to learn about a brand new technology and the history of money and, you know, Austrian economics and on your nights and weekends when you've got a family, that's just not happening. but luckily the, you know, Bitcoin has this catalyst built into it every four years that forces people to pay attention to it, you know, this reduction of supply, of new supply, causing the price to drift upwards, causing people to, to, to come back To question whether or not they fully understood Bitcoin in the first place. And you're right that like people who have been executing this playbook of, of selling their, their assets to buy more Bitcoin or, or taking on debt to buy more Bitcoin have, for the most part, been proven right. Like, I remember last cycle there was a lot of like mainstream news for some reason picked up the story of the, the Bitcoin family. Yeah. from, I think they're, I think they're from the Netherlands. D-D-D-D Tahu two," }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "53:49", "start": 3229.12, "text": "I think." }, { "speaker": "guest_2", "time": "53:49", "start": 3229.36, "text": "Yeah, right. And they, they sold everything to live on the road so that they could have more Bitcoin. And mainstream media loved sort of lampooning them, like, like calling them into, you know, into focus and saying like, \"Wow, that's irresponsible.\" That was sort of the subtext of all of the media attention that they seemed to get. Fast forward a few years, and they were right." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "54:14", "start": 3253.86, "text": "And I think that's gonna be a similar story for a lot of people who are Buying Bitcoin now. And it's funny as well because, yeah, we're very social creatures and, I think to some extent, yeah, like, you know, people have jobs, they have families, they have other hobbies. But the funny thing is that I find is that there will be some people who, like, it seems like they're so close and yet so far, because they are looking for strategies to make money, but as soon as, you know, some Bitcoin person tries to teach them about it, no, no, they would rather be looking at stocks, what stonks they" }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "54:47", "start": 3287.48, "text": "They need to take, and so it's not, it's not for, you know, want of time and attention spent on trying to make money, it's just that they're focused on the wrong thing." }, { "speaker": "guest_2", "time": "54:56", "start": 3295.67, "text": "Yeah, yeah. And, and not open to, to entertaining just how wrong they've been, you know? Like, I, I think that's part of the humbling process that, part of getting to Bitcoin is, is, admitting to yourself that you've been wrong to, you know, 'cause everyone dismisses it at first, 'cause it sounds crazy. It's Monopoly money. Nobody pays attention to it at first, and then you dig your heels in, right? And, and you want that to be true because you don't want to have been wrong for ignoring it. yeah. And then- So coming- Yeah. So then, then you have to, to, to, to embrace Bitcoin to get there, to reap the benefits of Bitcoin, for your financial security, your, your peace of mind, about your money, your wealth. To reap those benefits, you have to get past that, that big barrier, that blockade. Of, you know, admitting to yourself that you were wrong and recognizing that it's still really early. You know, if you de- if you divide, there's twenty-one million Bitcoin, if you divide that by how many people there are on the planet, that's zero point zero zero two five Bitcoin per person." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "56:06", "start": 3365.95, "text": "Yeah, we're talking something like two hundred and twenty or two hundred and thirty thousand sats per person if, if divided equally." }, { "speaker": "guest_2", "time": "56:12", "start": 3372.3, "text": "And, and that today is a hundred and fifty dollars. So even though it feels late Everyone feels late. Even the people in twenty eleven, twenty thirteen, they felt late. but when you look objectively at it, it's still so early that one person's share of the world's Bitcoin, if divided equally, costs a hundred and fifty dollars today. If you divide all the wealth in the world by the number of people in the world, it, that's forty-five thousand dollars of wealth per person, very unevenly distributed, but that's what it comes out to. So, you know, if we fully shift to a, a Bitcoin- Standard in the future, that's what you're talking about, but you can buy that today for a hundred and fifty dollars. That's how early it is. So if you, if you set up a DCA, a, a dollar cost averaging plan, if you're, you have a recurring buy every, every week or every month for a hundred and fifty dollars, every month you are st-stashing away one person's worth of wealth." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "57:09", "start": 3429.45, "text": "That's crazy when you think about it like that, hey? It's like, so it's all, it, like obviously we're oversimpl" }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "57:17", "start": 3437.48, "text": "Every month you're buying like forty-five thousand dollars worth of somebody's, you know?" }, { "speaker": "guest_2", "time": "57:23", "start": 3443.42, "text": "Yeah, that's right. Of, of land for, for a hundred and fifty dollars. when I, one of my other articles that, I wrote, \"The Bitcoin in the American West,\" to, when I was writing that, I, I researched what was it like for early settlers of Oregon. The Oregon Trail had this promise at the end of, of farmland for anyone who completes it. So in eighteen forty-three, and- Anyone who made it to Oregon, any couple, was, was granted free of charge six hundred and forty acres of farmland. That was the reward you got for, for being an early settler to, to Oregon. And, and of course, you know, that dropped rapidly over time, and now that, that amount of land is probably worth ten million dollars. It's, you know, that's, that's what happens when a, a frontier, a new land grab is going on, and you're at the very early stages of it, you get, you, you You have this opportunity to stake a larger claim before the rest of the world has showed up. And, and even though it doesn't feel like it, because, you know, the prices of, of a whole Bitcoin is in the fifty thousands, it's still that early. We're still half a percent into the global adoption curve. You can still buy a person's worth of Bitcoin for a hundred and fifty dollars." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "58:38", "start": 3518.13, "text": "Yeah, that's really crazy when you think about it. And the gold rush analogy certainly makes a lot of sense. I think this industry will have fortune Bitcoin's won and lost over this next, you know, call it ten, fifteen years. Do you have any, I guess, speculations on what you think that will look like?" }, { "speaker": "guest_2", "time": "58:57", "start": 3537.03, "text": "Yeah, it's, it, it is still the wild west, and, you know, the whole industry, I guess the truth of it is, is that since, since Bitcoin represents the, the swapping out, the upgrading of the base layer of human civilization, money, everything, is built on top of that in terms of trade. And wealth, it's all downstream of that foundational block. So this impacts banking, it impacts financial services, it impacts how we do transactions and trade, it impacts culture, it impacts everything. And fortunes will be made and lost in every single one of those industries, meaning every industry, based on the probably fairly rocky, transition that we are at the early stages of, in terms of this, this new- New financial system becoming part of the mainstream and eventually the preferred financial system over the, the traditional legacy one. so yeah, it, it scares me to consider the possibility that like I could be, you know, if I make a misstep, I could be one of the losers. So keep your keys safe, as safe as you can, because if you are here, if you're listening to this, you, you know the, the scale of what's happening and the opportunity for just holding Holding. so like, for example, if you, if you were considering putting your money on, an interest earning, your Bitcoin on an interest earning, third party platform, I personally think that there's something like a twenty percent chance that any one of those goes out of business overnight at some point in the next few years. and am I willing to, to risk, you know, a hundred x upside with Bitcoin by holding and securing my own keys for a couple percent? Of upside on a lending platform, with a twenty percent chance that I lose it all, absolutely not. So, you know, I think the, the thing to do from a, individual standpoint is recognize the importance of just holding and the scale of the opportunity ahead from just holding and keep those keys safe." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "01:01:07", "start": 3667.73, "text": "Fantastic. I think that's probably a good point to close out here. So, Croesus, where can listeners find you online?" }, { "speaker": "guest_2", "time": "01:01:13", "start": 3673.12, "text": "Yeah, I'm, I'm mostly on Twitter, at croesus underscore BTC, that's c o r o e s u s underscore b t c, and yeah, my DMs are open and, I have a pinned tweet with all of my educational content in there if you wanna go check out what I've put out in the past, it's all there." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "01:01:33", "start": 3693.97, "text": "Excellent, thanks for joining me. Thanks" }, { "speaker": "guest_2", "time": "01:01:35", "start": 3695.19, "text": "for" }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "01:01:35", "start": 3695.31, "text": "having" }, { "speaker": "guest_2", "time": "01:01:35", "start": 3695.53, "text": "me." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "01:01:36", "start": 3696.55, "text": "So what do you think about the yuppie elite? Is Croesus's intuition around trust in the system what you think? And of course, make sure you share the episode with your family and friends so they can learn about it also. I think this is a great one to share with them so they can start thinking about why they should be staking their claim on their share of Bitcoin. And get the show notes, stephanelivera dot com slash two six six for this episode. Thanks, and I'll see you in the citadels." } ] }