{ "episodeId": "SLP274", "speakers": { "stephan": { "name": "Stephan Livera", "role": "host", "tag": "STEPHAN" }, "william_clemente_iii": { "name": "William Clemente III", "role": "guest", "tag": "WILLIAM" }, "guest_2": { "name": "Guest 2", "role": "guest", "tag": "GUEST" } }, "segments": [ { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "00:09", "start": 9.09, "text": "Hi, you're listening to Stephan Livera podcast, a show about Bitcoin. So Bitcoin seems to be consolidating in this range in the mid-fifty thousands to high-fifty thousands. Where are we? Are we in the middle of the cycle? Are we at the top? What does it really look like? William Clemente III joins me, and he's been doing a lot of work in terms of talking about on-chain analytics and trying to understand what's going on in the market. So in this one, we get into on-chain analytics. Is this time different? Are we entering a supercycle or not? As well as analyzing what the different Cohorts are doing, and a range of different metrics, as well as discussing what a market top would actually look like. But first, a message from the sponsors of the show." }, { "speaker": "william_clemente_iii", "time": "00:56", "start": 56.5, "text": "Greetings, Stephan Livera fans. This is Dread here, and I have some big news to share. Swan Bitcoins new private client services division is open for business. So last August, Michael Strategy's CEO Michael Seiler kicked off the trend of companies buying Bitcoin for their balance sheets. A flood of high-profile investors and companies have joined him, names like Paul Tudor Jones, BlackRock, Square, and Tesla. Swan Private exists to meet the massive international demand from thousands of companies, family offices, and high-net-worth investors from all around the globe. 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On the other hand, if you have bitcoins and you, you need some liquidity without selling, well, this is one of the ways you can collateralize your bitcoins so you can put that up into a two or three multi-signature escrow where HodlHodl holds one and the counterparty obviously holds the other key This is a peer-to-peer lending and borrowing platform. On this platform, you set your own terms and put up offers depending on how long you want to borrow or lend and the interest rate. Go to lend dot huddlehuddle dot com. Are you interested to get involved with Bitcoin mining? Combus is an online marketplace making it easier for everyone to mine Bitcoin. This is the anti-cloud mining option. Combus helps you buy your own ASIC and you can place it at, hosting at facilities around the world that Combus have done some of that due diligence for you. So for years we've heard that mining is only profitable if you're investing tons of money, but now anyone can tap into the economies of scale and access reasonably priced hardware and cheap industrial power rates for many. any of us, it would simply not be competitive to mine on our residential power rates. So if you're unsure about how to get started, Compos offers hardware and hosting bundles. You don't have to have advanced technical knowledge, you can quickly get started mining Bitcoin with hardware you own. Go to Composmining.io and start mining Bitcoin today. Well, welcome to the show." }, { "speaker": "guest_2", "time": "03:36", "start": 215.75, "text": "Hey Stefan, thanks for having me on, man. I'm, I'm a big fan of your show for sure." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "03:39", "start": 219.33, "text": "Thank you. I, I've been watching some of your work on Twitter and, what you've been saying in terms of Bitcoin on-chain analytics, and I thought, \"Ah, it's time to get this guy on the show. He's got a lot of interesting things to say.\" but, I know you're a young fella, so tell me a little bit about yourself and how you got into Bitcoin." }, { "speaker": "guest_2", "time": "03:58", "start": 237.64, "text": "Yeah, I got into finance at the beginning of last year when we had the big liquidity crisis. you know, everything, everything looked really cheap and I, I wanted to, you know, make a quick buck, and I had really no idea what I was doing though, so I decided, okay, I'm gonna listen to some different podcasts and stuff like that to try to just, you know, grok investing a little bit. And what really stuck with me was the, you know, the Warren Buffett free cash flow kind of investing, right? You know, I've read Intelligent Investor and a I listened to Preston Pish's pod, of course, and got into all the, you know, very basics of value investing, right? And what, you know, obviously when you start to look into it, you, you realize, oh my gosh, value investing is getting absolutely obliterated by momentum and, and growth strategies, especially over the, you know, since two thousand and eight. And so I was like, why is that happening? And what you really come to, all roads kind of lead to the fact that we have no sound money, and the, the money that Make economic calculation with, on these businesses is not sound. It's like you're trying to build a house with a ruler that's changing in size constantly. And so that kind of led me down the rabbit hole of, okay, so what, what could be the solution to this? 'Cause right now, you know, equities aren't really based off of, you know, their earnings and things like that. they are a little bit, but, but not to the extent that they should be. And it's basically just coming down to where the liquidity is sloshing around Where the liquidity is moving to. So, that kind of led me down to questioning, you know, what, what's, the definition of money, what makes our money important, and then that obviously led me to Bitcoin eventually. And at first, you know, I, I really understood the, the number go up technology and got into, I think like all of us, anybody who says they, they didn't get into Bitcoin for the number go up technology is kidding themselves, and they're trying to act like they're on some high horse, but at the end of the day The price is going up, but then you start to understand, you know, the, the humanitarian and the, the societal impacts of, of what sound money will really bring for society, right? Like, the, the incentive structure that's built around fiat, not only just inequality, right, which is a whole nother route we can like go down, but, you know, the fact that equi-- the equities are being pumped up by the QE, and if you don't own equities, then the, you know, you're, you're, getting This money printing and, and the wealth inequality gap is just getting wider and wider, but also just the incentive structure that's set up for society, you know, when you have like a super inflationary currency, you're incentivizing spend, spend, spend all the time and, you know, you have sprouting out of that like materialism and all these kinds of things, which in my opinion are very toxic for society and just in general, as Bitcoiners would like to put it, when they talk about time preferences, I think inflationary money, incentivizes Time preference throughout society, and so that's something that also, made me very passionate about Bitcoin because it's gonna incentivize this better framework for, for what, our, our society is built on, right? when you have money that you realize is gonna appreciate over the next five, ten years, you're gonna do other things in your life so that you can appreciate that spending power, right? Like just, you know, a personal example for me, I've started eating better, so the, Bitcoin, you know, it incentivizes It provides us a whole different framework for society where you are implementing a low time preference, where, you know, people are looking at, okay, how can I build a better future for myself over the next five, ten years? one personal example for me is, now obviously I understand where Bitcoin's going, I've been taking care of myself, eating better, things like that, trying to take care of my mind, read a little bit, stuff like that, you know? And I think when you kind of apply that, that thinking and that, that framework to, broader society That changes, the way that everybody acts in the world as a whole, and I think that's, that's super good for humanity." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "08:10", "start": 490.27, "text": "Yeah, that's a really interesting way to put it, and it really reminds me as well, like when we're reading various economic articles and things, they can spell out how time preference really changes the way we act as people. And when we are operating in that very high time preference mindset, which in some ways fiat money drives that onto all of us, we're acting more like animals. We're actually thinking more and more just about basic- Instincts, it's just about survival. You become more like just an animal who's like, you know, if you go to safari and the safari guy is like teaching you, \"Oh, look, these guys are all about survival. For them, it's literally how do you get to the next, you know, how do you get your next meal, how do you, you know, survive, how do you not get eaten?\" as opposed to being able to think and plan for the long term, which is actually a very human thing, and that's something that is enabled by when" }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "09:02", "start": 542.16, "text": "we You came here for number go up technology, and then you started to go down the rabbit hole a little bit more. So as you got into the Bitcoin world, what was it that led you towards the whole on-chain analytics thing as opposed to something else? Like maybe you could have been a, you know, a privacy guy, or maybe you would have been, you know, a TA guy, or what made you into on-chain analytics?" }, { "speaker": "guest_2", "time": "09:24", "start": 563.7, "text": "Yeah, great question. So, you know, I, I think obviously, you know, I was just consuming like a whole bunch of podcasts and, yours, Preston's, Peter McCormack's, Poms, I'm, I'm sure I'm gonna miss a few, but I'm just naming some off the top of my head, but eventually, I, I forget, I think, I think it was actually on Peter McCormick's podcast, he interviewed Willie Wu, and I remember he did like this twenty twenty, yearly recap of like the year on chain, and the way he was talking about Bitcoin was just really fascinating to me, the fact that you can, you know, the way I like to think about on chain is if you could track, you know, in, in the world we have now, every time someone hands each other a five dollar bill or, you know, transacts, cash anywhere at any time, and you All of that on an open ledger, and then you can sort that data out and then make assumptions about, the behavior of different, groups of people based on how much money they have or how long they've been holding their money, like all these things. It's, it's really fascinating in the way that he can really, the way he described the fact that you're able to, you know, describe where, where we are in the cycle, the, the behavior of different entities and cohorts of, of, Bitcoin holders. It's just really, really interesting to me, and so I was like, I need to, I need to take a step further into this, this stuff is, this stuff is really interesting stuff. And, so I just, I went down the rabbit hole with that. I just, went on YouTube and obviously I typed in Willie Wu and just listened to like everything that he's list-- he's been on, like a lot of like the Tone V's, episodes that he's done on YouTube, those are kind of hidden gems in my opinion." }, { "speaker": "guest_2", "time": "11:07", "start": 666.79, "text": "for the Those are, those are ones that are pretty unique because, it, he, he screen shares like when he's doing the pods with Peter or I think he's done one with like Jimmy Song. You, you don't get to see what he's looking at, but in the episodes with Tone, he screen shares the whole time, so you can actually see all these charts that he's, he's looking at and really kind of pick his brain as to what he thinks really makes the market tick. And, so I started watching all those. an-another guy who's really smart" }, { "speaker": "guest_2", "time": "11:40", "start": 700.38, "text": "As well as, Morad, everybody knows Morad, he's kinda gone missing since, last March, but I'm sure he's out there somewhere, and, he, he's a really bright mind in the space, he, he knows a lot about, the, the different data aspects of Bitcoin. also, you know, of course, Rafael, I think he offers a really interesting perspective because there's people like Willie where they're interpreting the data, but Rafael has this really interesting perspective where he's actually on the back end typing in the data That, we're all reading. So he has this really interesting perspective where, okay, he'll say, \"Oh, maybe this is an outlier because of this.\" And he, he understands all these little movements in the data that maybe you or I wouldn't be able to explain. So he's somebody that I often ask a lot of questions to, 'cause he has a very deep understanding of the on-chain stuff. And then as well, Checkmate, Checkmate does the weekly reports for Glassnode. He's somebody I kinda like to keep in touch with because he's somebody" }, { "speaker": "guest_2", "time": "12:40", "start": 760.04, "text": "Great minds in the on-chain space, just looking at all the work that they've done, trying to soak up everything from them, pick their minds, you know, I like to think when, this is actually something I learned from Preston, you know, when, when you are trying to understand something, you, you kinda find the smartest minds in that, in that, discipline, right? And then not only do you try to follow what they're doing, but you try to pick apart their brains and say, like, what is driving their thinking? What kind of" }, { "speaker": "guest_2", "time": "13:10", "start": 790.06, "text": "Kind of get this very balanced perspective from different angles of people in that discipline. So that's what I've been trying to do with on-chain stuff. I, you know, I think it, it's really so early with all these metrics we have. the very first one was when Willy came out with NVT, and NVT is this very basic metric, Willy likes to describe it as the PE ratio of Bitcoin, and it's basically valuing Bitcoin based off of, the transactional volume on chain. It's literally a ratio of, the network value or the market cap to the transactional volume on chain. And so whenever we get to the end of the bull, the bull market, you have this huge run up in market cap, but the underlying investor activity on chain isn't going up, therefore it's overvalued compared to its, its organic transactional volume that, that's going on on the, on the blockchain. So that was the very first metric that was created by Willie. And then in two thousand eighteen, you had like the halal waves. Murad and, David put together the MVRV, Really good indicator. That indicator is, the market value to realized value. It, it's-- so the way you can think of this is like you're obviously taking the market cap, but then you're taking a ratio of that to realized cap, which is the price of all bitcoins based off of when they last moved. So, you know, let's say Roger Vayer bought a hundred thousand bitcoins at a dollar or something crazy like that, right? Let's say he never sold them, which I'm sure he's moved those coins, but let's say he, let's say he, he That would be, Bitcoin's just dipped a little bit, I think it's down to fifty-four K now, so that'd be five point four billion dollars of, of market cap that's added. But let's say the coin's never moved since when he bought them at a dollar, then a hundred thousand is only added to realized cap. So you're taking a ratio of the market cap to that, and so you get, these overheated zones when, when the market cap is rising way above investor, underlying investor activity, where, where coins are actually- Moving and when investors are actually buying the coins. And then also you get these very distinct buy zones in the bear markets when, because if the market cap falls under the realized cap, you have capitulation by definition, so those are, those tend to be very, v-very, promising buy zones where you could take, you know, statistically, especially if you have under other indicators that are screaming that it's a, that it's a bottom, right? Yeah. you can take a statistically, a higher, risky, A more risky buy, excuse me. So, you know, maybe you don't go a hundred x long on BitMEX, but if all these indicators are screaming bottom, and the, the MVRV is one of those that I would include in that basket to look at, then, you know, you could take a two, three x leverage buy or something like that. Yeah, interesting." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "15:58", "start": 958.17, "text": "Yeah. So let, let me break some of that down a bit. I mean, because we've, we've thrown a lot out there, so just for some of the listeners who might be a Two episodes with him and some various episodes, but I think just a bit of background for listeners, if you're new to Bitcoin, think of it like every time you spend some Bitcoin, that's obviously visible on chain. And then the other thing that we can see is that we, we know, we can see when that, that quote-unquote coin or UTXO, unspent transaction output, it last moved. And so by looking at those metrics and combined with other things, we can sort of get a sense of where we are and get a sense of where the market is. and I think there's a few different, I guess, underlying objectives, and I'm curious what you think as well, but I guess high level, you could think of it like sometimes you wanna see what are the whales doing and what are the OGs doing, compared to what are the new people doing, because what the new people doing might be a little bit more erratic, there might be more, I guess, speculative or kind of in and out and gam- more gambler type, whereas typically the veterans are a bit more predictable in how they do this stuff, and then I And what we're trying to do is get a feel for where we are in the cycle, and I think the way I would, I guess, summarize it is not that you can call an exact top or an exact bottom, but you can just have a sense of relative risk. You can have a sense of, okay, we're getting sort of-- there's more of a risk that we're topping, or there's more of a risk here that-- or an opportunity here that we're kind of towards the bottom, and therefore now is a better time to be buying. Now, personally, I'm not a" }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "17:40", "start": 1060.02, "text": "About that, do you agree, disagree, have a slightly opinion, slightly different opinion?" }, { "speaker": "guest_2", "time": "17:44", "start": 1063.74, "text": "Yeah, I think, I think you're pretty spot on there. You know, like you said, I'm, I'm not a trader either, but I just think it's interesting to know where we are in the cycles, right? Just kind of understand where we are and, like you said, you know, the, the on-chain stuff isn't gonna give you an absolute top. Anybody that says that they can time the top is either drinking their own Kool-Aid or they're, they're kidding you Here, it's starting to look a little toppy, or you can say, okay, we're-- all these metrics are lining up saying we're near this capitulation bottom of, of the cycle, and it might be a good time to, you know, take some heavier buys here. And like you said, you know, you can track all the behavior of, of the long-term holders, which at the end of the day, really is the smart money in the space, because these are the people that have been through multiple cycles when we're talking about the people that have had their Because you can, like you said, we can track the age of the coin, so you can see coins, you know, that have been held in a wallet for under twenty-four hours, a day to a week, a week to a month, et cetera, et cetera, and you can see all the way out to these older holders that have held for three to five years, five to seven years, seven to ten years, ten plus years, right? And when you start to see these older holders, and you follow their behavior, that tends to be the smarter money" }, { "speaker": "guest_2", "time": "19:10", "start": 1150.06, "text": "See them accumulate very heavily, and you see, the new money kinda step out that speculatively hopped in during the end of, you know, ended the previous cycle, like at the very top of the bull cycle, they fomo'd in, and then on the way down, they, they freak out and, and they sell and capitulate, and then at the bottom, so, so to illustrate this, if anybody, has a Glassnode subscription, you can look at this, there's something called HODL Waves, which I know Glassnode isn't portion of supply that's held by different ages of the different cohorts. And so when we get to the top of the bull market, like Stefan was kind of getting at here, the, the smarter money at the end of the cycles, they start to sell off into strength, and so you start to see a larger portion of supply becoming held by these, these younger aged coins, and, and a.k.a., you know, the, for lack of a better word, the dumber money, the, the speculators, the people that are fomoing in, and then at the bottom See a larger portion of supply is held by these longer term holders, these, you know, five to seven year, age addresses, these ten plus year holders, they're add, they're adding to their positions heavily during the bottom of the bear because they understand, the cyclical nature of Bitcoin. So yeah, I think following, following that smart money and the behavior of those wallets is, one of the things that, that's very important when you're trying to time where we are in the, in the cycle and gauge that." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "20:38", "start": 1237.53, "text": "Yeah. Now, Will, one other point to One episode I did with Preston actually where we called it the final cycle, or there's also the conversation around supercycles, right? So whatever term you want to use, we could think of it like, is this time different, right? So historically, we have been through bear markets where there were eighty percent drawdowns from the top to the bottom, right? So twenty thirteen, kind of twenty fourteen, fifteen was the bear market for that, and then twenty eighteen, we went, you know, from that top of twenty thousand down to, call it, three or four thousand. So now the Different, that there won't be a big eighty percent or seventy percent drawdown this time, we might see only little pullbacks along the way. So in your mind, how are you thinking about that when you try to marry up that fundamental analysis question or just the, the shift in the narrative, the shift in the way the normal person is thinking versus some of the on-chain analytics? How do you mesh that together?" }, { "speaker": "guest_2", "time": "21:31", "start": 1290.89, "text": "Yeah, that's a fantastic question. you know, that there's been a lot of talk about the whole supercycle thing, everybody wants to know supercycle, is, is this That's definitely on the table, and you just have to monitor it over a day-to-day, week-to-week basis. You know, the way I look at it is the, some of the behavior on chain, definitely is different than previous cycles, but at the same time, I think, and I'll get back to it, but I think at, at the end of the cycle, it'll be interesting to see, will we still see, human greed kick in, which is just natural market behavior, and we start to see this huge blow-off top, which in my opinion will, behavior, but what I, what I mentioned about some of the metrics that are different, I think the biggest one that everybody knows of is the, the exchange depletion. I've, I've been posting a fair amount about that, and I know many others have as well. It's, it's, I think can be credited to a couple other things, a, a couple different things, excuse me. I think the first one is definitely just custody solutions, like people, and like the, the players that are stepping in now, the high net-worths and institutions that we can see They're not gonna mess around with just holding their coins on Coinbase exchange, they're gonna withdraw to some, I don't know, Fidelity custody or something like that. I had the privilege of speaking with somebody from Skybridge Capital and they have a huge Bitcoin fund in there. Like, yeah, we're not gonna play around with taking custody of our coins, we get them and send them right to Fidelity, right? And I'm sure they're not the only ones thinking that way. So there's definitely some of that there, and then also something not as prominent, but something that" }, { "speaker": "guest_2", "time": "23:10", "start": 1390.28, "text": "Contracts, for, you know, to do something like, you know, the, the cash and carry trade, right? You have to have spot Bitcoin to, to capture this, the, the spreads between the, the futures premium and the, and the spot, which we can get to back to that, 'cause I know that's like a whole nother conversation, but also Grayscale's playing, not as, not as lately 'cause they haven't had any recent purchases, but I think towards, you know, the end of last year, then they, they've definitely Billion dollars assets under management, I might be wrong, I might be understating that a little bit, but they definitely are a fair, playing a fair portion in there. So I think it's a combination of those things, but more importantly, I think this, this liquid supply or, or a liquid supply metric that Glassnode has is a, is an even more, accurate way to really understand what's going on because yes, when you look at the coins moving off exchanges, it's, it's illustrating this decrease in supply, obviously supply and demand, less supply Even if demand stays the same, price should theoretically go up. But obviously, you know, just because people withdraw coins from exchanges doesn't mean they can't send them right back on within a thirty minute period or whatever and just dump them. So I think when you look at the liquid supply metric, it's giving you a lot more, accurate picture of this narrative that people are buying coins and not selling them. So Glassnode's liquid supply metric is basically, they, they take different addresses and they group them in Into entities, so they forensically say, okay, this group of addresses looks like one person, this group of addresses looks like another person, and then they take the behavior of, of that entity. So they say, okay, this entity has moved, you know, they've taken in this amount of coins, but they've only moved out this amount of coins, and based off that percentage, they get moved into different cohorts. So there's highly liquid, which are like, you know, daily in and out traders, liquid, and then illiquid, which are people that statistically have a very Minimal likelihood of, of selling. And I think they use a hundred fifty five day threshold for that metric, I might be wrong, but it's either, I think that's the threshold, it might be for the long term holder net position metric, but it doesn't matter anyway. There's a certain threshold that Glassnode uses, and they say after this threshold is crossed, statistically, the likelihood of these coins being moved back out of the wallet goes down drastically. And the, the amount of supply that's moving to these illiquid, this illiquid co- Has been just continuing, just without any, sign of letting up since March of last year, which is very interesting because of course, the whole narrative of Bitcoin being an inflation hedge really kind of spewed up then. And so you're, you're just seeing these coins moving to these addresses that have no history of selling at like an unprecedented rate, especially when you compare it to previous bull markets. Obviously, in, in the bear markets, you see these spikes 'cause we talked about, you know, smart money's accumulating 'cause they know the bull market's coming in two years later or whatever, Seeing this liquidity depletion is just really kind of unprecedented, and I think that's, that paints the picture a lot better than just the, balances of from exchanges. And, and that's, I think to me the big thing that's, that's changing in the on-chain setup, that, that's gonna, gonna be interesting to see how it plays out throughout the year. Do those, do those entities all of a sudden decide that they're gonna change up their behavior towards the end of the year, or does that continue? But as of right now, it's looking like that's, that's Going down. I think, I think this market, the, the whole derivatives market, if you, if you want to, we can get into this, but I think that's something that's really, important and something that hasn't been around in previous cycles." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "26:53", "start": 1612.59, "text": "Back to the show in a moment. CoinKite dot com are the creators of my favorite Bitcoin hardware wallet, the Coldcard, and their new version four point one point zero brought in a new feature called Seed EXOR. So most of us understand now that metal seed backups are paramount as paper could burn, but then the challenge is how do we store clear text secrets as anyone with physical access could access that and gain control of the funds? Well, now with Seed EXOR, you can actually split your seed into multiple seed phrases, so you can think of it like a two of two or a three of three, where you actually need all of these pieces to be able to combine them. 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So go to ciphersafe dot io and use the code levera for a discount. Back to the show. Yeah, right. So there are certain changes about the market as well. So I guess one other point just on the whole illiquid supply, I guess it is also worthwhile remembering that this is one of those things where I have to catch myself as well every now and again, but it's, it's not that, okay, yes, there are new coins being mined into existence, but as we speak today, it's about eighteen point seven million out of the twenty-one million total that are already issued or mined into existence. And so really what we're talking about is the relative changes between that. So then the The amount of coins held on exchanges is going down. Yes, there are more people hodling, but it's also fair to say that as we start getting to really high highs, there'll be some old ho-holders from years ago who are like, \"Oh man, even if I just took a little bit off, I could buy a house or a car for my family or wh- whatever. \" or maybe they wanna buy their citadel or whatever it is, right? at some point on the margin, people will start taking some off the table. I mean, we can tell them" }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "30:07", "start": 1806.98, "text": "It doesn't matter to them because they're like, \"Hey, I might not live forever, \" and, you know, \"Well, I'm not gonna live forever, \" and I wanna be able to do this thing with my coins now. And so I would hypothesize then that really what we're gonna see is that, yes, we're seeing the coin, the coins on exchanges go down, but towards the end of this cycle, we're gonna see the reverse of that trend, and they'll see more people who are going back the other way because now they wanna, buy something" }, { "speaker": "guest_2", "time": "30:37", "start": 1836.96, "text": "You know, I think the whole, the whole narrative about the coins moving off exchanges at some point, people are gonna start freaking out 'cause we're pushing this narrative so hard when coins start to come back on exchanges, which will happen at the end of the cycle because it's just human nature, you know, if you bought Bitcoin ten years ago, you were thirty years old, and you're forty now, and your Bitcoin's worth whatever crazy amount, you can retire, never have to work again in your life, or buy, you know, your dream house or whatever, yeah, you're gonna take some Cycle right now, we're seeing, very limited selling from those holders. So like, to me, to me that's illustrating that they're expecting a lot more upside. And one way to look at this is, dormancy, which is this metric, it, it takes-- th-there's a, in, in on-chain metrics, there's this metric called, coin days destroyed, and, and dormancy is, is based off of this, and I'll explain how. coin days destroyed, you can think of this as if a coin is in a wallet for" }, { "speaker": "guest_2", "time": "31:37", "start": 1896.96, "text": "Coin is moved out of the wallet, well then ten coin days are destroyed. And so dormancy adjusts this for volume to give you, a little bit more, signal on, on the behavior of, of the older coins that are being sold. But you saw a peak in dormancy at the end of January, which I think is very interesting timing because you start to-- well, since then you've seen a steady downtrend in that, but I think the timing of that is interesting because that's right around when Tesla announced their buy, and whether that's just- You know, correlation without causation or was that, was that actually the catalyst for some of them to step back and say, \"Oh, hold on, maybe we're actually gonna get that institutional adoption this cycle.\" I think it's a very interesting question, but since, since the end of January, we did, see a huge drawdown in selling from those older holders, and I think that's just a testament to they know this cycle is still very far from overheated and still probably have a, still probably has a while to go. You saw the same thing with miners, like miners Ramped up selling around twenty-seven thousand to thirty-two thousand, which is to be expected, like when you see miners and these long-term holders selling after we break all-time highs, they've been waiting for this for a long time. They're, they're selling a little bit and then they're waiting for the next crazy run back up, and I think that's just a, another way to understand that we're in this consolidation and, and they're waiting for higher prices to start unloading again. But I, I absolutely agree with you that the end of the cycle, we're gonna see some of those Bags as well, because I know I would." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "33:10", "start": 1989.84, "text": "Yeah. and so I guess that's also the question then as well, because I, I think there are some people out there saying, \"Yeah, it's gonna be a super cycle, don't expect that it's gonna be a huge drawdown,\" whereas others in the camp, and I think, probably you and I are similar there, like I think we are going to see a big drawdown, not, again, not that we want to see this, just that, that, that is the likely outcome in my view" }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "33:37", "start": 2016.96, "text": "They're stacking sats every day, every week, and eventually, at some point, we're gonna reach a point where we overheat and the market overextends beyond the level of what those DCA army people can suck up. And so, I think that's probably the question that if you built up theoretically, if the DCA army built up so much, then maybe we would enter the supercycle. But I, I just, I guess what I'm saying is, I think it's unlikely the DCA army grows that large, that, that we enter a supercycle this time around" }, { "speaker": "guest_2", "time": "34:07", "start": 2047.38, "text": "absolutely, and if we're gonna see a super cycle, it's gonna have to be something where, you know, we consolidate, we-- I mean, we shoot up, and then we consolidate for two months, like we have now, at between forty K, sixty K, we consolidate for a while, and then we move back up, and then we consolidate for a while, but that's just not how human behavior acts, with these market cycles. The higher we go, the more, the, the, the faster the, the price, movement accelerates" }, { "speaker": "guest_2", "time": "34:37", "start": 2077.02, "text": "It, it took us like, I, I wasn't around back then, but just looking at the price charts, you know, it took like a week and a half for price to double or something crazy like that. And so it, the, the price appreciation gets faster and faster and faster throughout the cycle until, you know, human greed obviously kicks in, people stop selling 'cause people are like, \"Oh my God, we're going to the moon! You know, this thing's going all the way!\" And then that's where things like, you know, the, the Nupl, N" }, { "speaker": "guest_2", "time": "35:07", "start": 2107.18, "text": "Because people stop selling, 'cause they think that this thing's gonna go up forever. That, that's very dangerous, because then people are just bidding, bidding, bidding the price up, and there's no underlying, investment activity that's going on up there. And also, like, one thing that I'm, I'm really using to distinguish this consolidation that we're in from any kind of bearish activity is on-chain volume. So when, when we get to the, the top of, of cycles, we see very minimal, distribution of vol- There's not a lot of, investor activity that's going on up there, it's just literally FOMO, people coming in and just bidding the price up, but where we are now, we're seeing this huge slice of, little sliver of volume. It's actually the largest sliver since six K to eleven K last year, and at the, the fifty-seven thousand five hundred level is actually the, the largest single bar of volume since eleven thousand. So, you know, every, every cycle, I, once again, like, obviously I wasn't around back then, but Looks like we build up this huge base of capital, like two to three times the previous all time high in, in this, the on chain volume, and that's what it looks like we're doing now, and so I would kinda suspect this to be the bear market floor in, in the next, when we have the next drawdown, that's the way I kinda see where we are now, but we're building up this huge base of capital where, you know, we might be consolidating for a few, a few more weeks, I mean, who knows, but when Support here and, and so many, or I'm sorry, so much capital that has inflow to these levels, I, I don't think we're gonna come back. I think it's gonna be like ten K. You know, we were sitting under ten K, everybody thought Bitcoin was stuck there forever, it was basically a stable coin at ninety-five hundred. And then all of a sudden, busted out of ten K and never came back. And I see the disconsolidation very similarly, also, similar to the, to the volume, realized cap. And we had touched on that earlier, realized cap has been going up dramatically over the last month or two, which is very bullish because you're seeing a lot of capital, once again, flowing in at these levels, new investors coming in to take positions at these levels. So I, yeah, in my opinion, we're just, we're just in this huge consolidation zone." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "37:22", "start": 2241.59, "text": "Yeah. And The other way to think about it also is that those players who are long term thinking will not want to sell anything below that level, because that's what they bought in at. It's like maybe the analogy would be like you come to a poker table and, you bought in with this amount, so you sort of feel like you don't wanna leave with anything less than that, because now you're losing." }, { "speaker": "guest_2", "time": "37:42", "start": 2262.02, "text": "Yeah, absolutely. And, you know, it's interesting you say that, because, there's a metric that actually measures that. It's called SOPR, S O P R," }, { "speaker": "guest_2", "time": "37:53", "start": 2273.19, "text": "Corrections that we've had so far this cycle, because like you said, people have a very low tendency to, especially, smart, you know, retail investors a lot of times panic sell, but big money that's stepping in, when you have, you know, taking like a million plus dollar position, those are, it's sufficient to say those are, intelligent investors, smart money that's coming in if you have that much capital to deploy. So these people aren't gonna sell at a loss, and, and so it's interesting when you see the market goes into a, Ag, like on aggregate, if, if every, if the market on average is selling at a loss, that's marked, that's what the SoP metric measures, and when that's happened, that's marked every bottom. So yeah, like you said, the more capital that flows in at these levels, it's building up a, a new floor for, for people that are, this is their new baseline, right? I mean, you may have bought in at whatever five, ten K, right? But the people that are buying in now, this is their baseline, and so you're Yeah, so and we're seeing a lot of that at these levels. Also stable coins coming in, I think over, over a third of stable coins have been printed above fifty K. I think we're actually approaching forty percent of all stable coins have been printed above fifty K. I think like seven billion dollars of stable coins have been printed in the last ten days. So, yeah, there's a lot. I mean, obviously some of that is going to altcoins, as, as much as we don't wanna believe that, I mean, it's the truth, but a substantial portion" }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "39:24", "start": 2364.23, "text": "Yeah, yeah. I'm also curious your view on, okay, so I guess sticking with the poker analogy, sometimes there are times where you make the right call but you still lose, right? So as an example, you'll-- or whatever, maybe you went all in with aces and the other guy still, he sucked out on you, right? I don't know, or, or maybe the other way around, maybe it's more like, are there instances where, you know, you might be looking at certain on-chain metrics and get led the wrong way because you might think it's a" }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "39:53", "start": 2393.19, "text": "The Aces example, but just for instance, for that example, how do you think about that or how do, how do, you know, on-chain analytics people think about that and trying to make sure, you know, I'm not getting the wrong signal here?" }, { "speaker": "guest_2", "time": "40:05", "start": 2404.65, "text": "Yeah, that, that's a really good point, and I think, you know, the way you kind of combat that is by looking at multiple metrics that are kind of describing the same thing. If you're, if you're just going off of one metric, and I'm glad you brought this up, if, you know, if you're going off of one metric, right? You can't base your whole assumption, 'cause at the end of the day, what we're basically doing is forensics, right? And that's what I think is kind of fun about it is you're looking at specific outcome, right? and so it's important not to just go off of one thing, and you wanna look for something called confluence, which is basically, you know, a, a similar story that's being told by, by multiple metrics that describe the, something similar. And, and yeah, that, that's very important because if you're just going off of one thing, a lot of times there's nuance to these metrics, and, there, there might be something that you missed of, oh, this is why this is acting this way, or there might be something fundamental Like one, one example would be like in twenty nineteen, when, and this isn't really on chain, but when, when price was pumping and everyone was very confused 'cause like, we haven't been in a normal bear market, but then if you understood fundamentally the, the plus token Ponzi, you know, that, that's a piece of information you need to understand to know why price action is acting that way. So you always need to know the, the fundamental drivers of, of what is, what's, driving the data points. You, you know, if, if you, if Knowing, you know, what fundamentally is causing the behavior that way, for example, like if you were looking at whales popping up and, you know, the, the liquid supply metric that I was talking about, if you didn't understand there was this macro backdrop where everyone's looking for an inflation hedge and you didn't know that corporations were coming in, you would be very confused about, the behavior of whales and, and the liquidity depletion, right? So i-it's important to understand the fundamentals as well and then look for that confluence across the multi- Indicators to understand the, the best possible picture, I think." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "42:08", "start": 2527.63, "text": "Yeah, that makes a lot of sense to me. So it's, it's essentially marrying up the fundamental analysis and looking at really what's going on qualitatively as well, and then also trying to look for multiple indicators that are pointing in the same direction. And so I guess it's similar like being a trader or whether you're a poker player, the idea is that you're not necessarily gonna get it right every single time, but the idea is that you're getting it right more often than not, or trying to tip the odds in" }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "42:34", "start": 2554.39, "text": "To be buying, or whatever, whatever sort of action you're taking in that. And over time, the market evolves, and so there might be new metrics involved. So as you were saying, even stable-- the growth in stable coins, or maybe, more and more people are playing in the derivative space. How do we think about that, and how does that change any of our, approach around on-chain analytics?" }, { "speaker": "guest_2", "time": "42:58", "start": 2577.74, "text": "Yeah, absolutely. You know, I said over, over the time, over the long term, the market's gonna evolve. It's gonna be harder to- Track on-chain movements when you start to have things like, Lightning come online, right? I'm sure the, the brilliant people over at Glassnode will figure out how to, how to, you know, compensate for that, but it's gonna be, it's gonna be different. You're gonna have to adjust and evolve to that. You brought up stable coins, like, that's something that wasn't around last cycle, and it's very important to look at the flow of stable coins 'cause you understand where, you know, capital's coming into the market. The derivatives market" }, { "speaker": "guest_2", "time": "43:34", "start": 2614.39, "text": "These crazy swings, like we just had this crazy nasty wick down to like fifty, fifty-three K or something like that, and I think in, in w-what that is, is it's just liquidations, right? the market gets overleveraged in one way, and then, in, in my opinion, a lot of times what this is, is a whale coming in and saying, \"Okay, there's a lot of leverage, everybody's got their, their liquidation price, where if, if the price goes down to this level, they have to sell, and then they get So I think these, a lot of these crazy price swings that you see on these shorter term pr-time frames are liquidations in both directions and, and to some extent whales kind of playing into that, knowing where those stop losses are and hunting them to try to, to move price to, to kind of go their favor in the trade. But anyway, yeah, I think it, it's very important to understand the derivatives because that plays a huge part in, like in, in the March crash, March crash of last year, a lot of the selling came from de-derivatives and not Spot. So if you're, if you're a long-term investor, if you, if you really like, if you could see that, then you'd say, okay, well, you know, if, if the fundamental long-term holders aren't selling much here, it's just derivatives, well, not, nothing has changed in the investment thesis, the smart money isn't selling off here, there's nothing to be concerned about long-term, right? But I think the derivatives, the derivatives plays a huge part in, in a lot of these nasty wicks and price rises. It goes both ways. We Drawdowns like we saw, like at the end of last month, where we went down like fifteen percent in an hour, and we saw billions and billions of dollars of liquidations, and that's what that was. It was just a cascade of liquidations. But it also goes the flip, the flip side to the upside, where, you know, if there's a bunch of shorts, all of a sudden, you know, the price goes above that threshold for the shorts, their, their stops get hit, they have to buy in, they get liquidated, and then it, it's on the, on the upside as well. So it's kind of a double-edged sword, but that makes for these really crazy, sudden moves in Bitcoin that, that we've been seeing lately, especially on these like shorter time frames." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "45:46", "start": 2746.1, "text": "Yeah, that's interesting. and especially the short squeeze stuff as well, because it really makes you wonder, who is actually going short? And now, okay, maybe there are some people who are-- Maybe they are just, for, for whatever some other position they're doing, that maybe they're not that net short, but they are, Moments and then, but who, who, who is, who are these people?" }, { "speaker": "guest_2", "time": "46:08", "start": 2767.75, "text": "Yeah, that's, that's a really good question. I guess, I guess some of it is just, you know, speculative traders, they're just doing like their TA or something and they think that the price pattern they drew is saying price is gonna go down. but, you know, a lot of, a lot of the short interest is actually coming from hedge funds, that are trying to do this, this, cash and carry trade, which is very interesting, where And so I, I don't know, I'm assuming that their, their liquidation price would be a lot, a lot lower than some of the speculative traders, especially the ones that are like going leveraged long. But, you know, if, if we have a, a big enough cascade of liquidations, they're getting thrown in there too, getting liquidated. But, yeah, we're definitely seeing, you see this huge increase in, the, the futures interest from, from these hedge funds, which is, which is very interesting. And then specifically like when you break that The futures interest from the hedge funds is mostly short, like, like not even close, like way dramatically short. So in my opinion, that's, that's showing that some of them are trying to capture this, this risk-free spread between the spot and the futures." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "47:18", "start": 2837.92, "text": "Yeah, yeah. So this is like, the whole, the, so Plan B as mentioned, there's a lot of people talking about the, you know, the contango trade, and essentially it, it really works for people who are fiat-denominated, right? So if you are Bitcoin-denominated Losing your bitcoins, but maybe if you, if you've already got, you know, your stack of bitcoins and you've got a small amount that you're doing on a fiat, you're, you're kind of treating that like a fiat-denominated thing. Or there are people who aren't hardcore orange-pilled bitcoiners yet, and they are still fiat-denominated, so they're trying to capture that, and because they're, you know, I think it's, it's-- we're living in this world where returns are really not that great in real terms, because," }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "48:02", "start": 2882.25, "text": "because Negative return or negative real return. So I guess there will be demand coming, but it's just people haven't all figured out how to execute that yet, or maybe they're not comfortable with the risks associated." }, { "speaker": "guest_2", "time": "48:16", "start": 2895.54, "text": "Yeah, absolutely. And, you know, I think the whole cash and carry thing is very bullish for Bitcoin for this reason. If you're gonna capture the spread, you have to buy underlying spot. You have to, to capture the spread, you have to go long spot and short the futures. So the wider that these spreads get, which is gonna increase as the volatility increases, and the volatility- The value of Bitcoin increases the, the further out into the cycle we go. So I suspect that as the cycle goes on, these spreads will probably get fatter and fatter. And the-- so to break it down, the contango is basically when, when the futures are trading at a premium to the spot, and the futures, every so often, you know, whatever every month or that they're going out, they're trading at a higher and higher price. And so you can capture, let's say the futures are trading at sixty thousand and the spot Bitcoin is fifty- Five thousand. For someone that's operating, and like you said, in a fiat denomination, this isn't for some hardcore bitcoiners, but, you know, this might be for a fixed income investment fund or something like that. And so they can capture that essentially risk-free, five thousand, dollar difference by shorting the futures, going long spot, and then holding those positions out until when the futures contract expires. And so, and so this is gonna be very interesting to see play out towards the end of the cycle, if, and, I mean, who knows if this will happen? My, my theory is that it will. Well, the futures, especially because they're being driven by, leverage. So like the, the exchanges with higher leverage, like Binance, FTX, the, the le- the, the difference between the spot and the futures on those exchanges, the futures premium is way higher versus something like CME. And, that's because of the- Leverage that those, that those exchanges offer. So when we get to the end of this cycle, there's gonna be more leverage positions being taken. Will these, will these spreads blow out to crazy stuff like fifty, sixty percent plus? I mean, it might go higher than that, who knows? But, the theory is if, if that happens, then there's gonna be a whole lot of interest to come in and capture that spread. And the way that that, that would, be able to support Bitcoin is because people are gonna have to buy more and more underlying- Spot Bitcoin like market, market buy Bitcoin to capture the spread. So that's just locking up more and more coins, which I think could be something where if we get to the end of the cycle, will that be something that causes like this huge next leg up? I don't know, but that's something that I think is, is very interesting to keep an eye on. I don't know how it's gonna play out, but it's, it's something fascinating because we've never seen the behavior of, these Katango yields in, in a full-blown bull market" }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "50:58", "start": 3058.06, "text": "Yeah. So, I guess in terms of the overall view where we are in the cycle from your perspective and from, it seems most of the on-chain analytics, people, we're still in the middle of the cycle. So if you had to kind of summarize, why do you think we're still in the middle of this cycle? Why is that?" }, { "speaker": "guest_2", "time": "51:14", "start": 3073.51, "text": "Yeah, great question. So, you know, I think the biggest thing is that the age of the coins that are being sold here are really young coins, and we're continually seeing, like we had mentioned in the beginning, you know, cohorts of Selling are, are continuing to scoop up these coins. Also, we're seeing, realized cap go up, which is, is resetting a lot of indicators like the MVRV. It's, it's showing that a lot of new capital is coming in at these levels. we also touched on the on-chain volume, which is the basically saying the same thing, and it really comes down to, yeah, there's, there's a lot of capital that are coming in, that is coming in at these levels. We're building up this huge base, in my opinion" }, { "speaker": "guest_2", "time": "51:58", "start": 3118.22, "text": "Where there's a lot of, you know, new market participants stepping in and this floor that, that we're building up, we had talked about, you know, the, the whole poker thing, people, you know, when the price levels that they step in at is their bottom that, that they're basing their gains off of, and the more capital that flows in at these levels, the more that floor is, is raising up to where we are now. So I think we're just in this huge midway consolidation." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "52:23", "start": 3143.42, "text": "Yeah, really interesting. And as you were saying earlier, it comes down to marrying Things, right? The fundamental analysis, there's a lot of people coming into Bitcoin, there's more and more businesses building services that allow other people to buy Bitcoin or connect up, for example, Nidec connecting up with banks to allow them to buy Bitcoin. So that's like a very strong fundamental thesis, this whole narrative of long-term store of value, lo-save your value, this is the thing to do it with, that narrative is coming. And then the confluence of all the various, the on-chain analytic factors that you were mentioning earlier, like MVRV, the cohorts, who's holding Selling, not that many, but there are some. And I guess also if you, do you have any thoughts on where you think, the top of the cycle would be? Do you have any guesses?" }, { "speaker": "guest_2", "time": "53:08", "start": 3188.39, "text": "Yeah, so I gotta be careful with what I throw out here. I, I would say, I would say three hundred K is, is a good solid round number. I'm also kind of piggybacking off of Willie and Plan B a little bit here, but also a lot of the metrics, the, the broader cycle metrics, if you just kind of look" }, { "speaker": "guest_2", "time": "53:28", "start": 3207.92, "text": "Previous cycles and you just kind of project out into the, the future, you know, what that would look like in terms of a top of this cycle, I think across like three or four different metrics, that's looking right around that three hundred K spot. So I think that, that's my number as well." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "53:42", "start": 3221.85, "text": "Yeah, interesting stuff. And so that might sound really crazy to people who are new to Bitcoin, because that is literally, we're talking five or six x from where we are today. But, Bitcoin can really move quickly, and so we will see a lot of people come It will be like that whole, it'll feel like that whole eternal September. There'll be every man and his dog will be hitting, you know, Bitcoin is up, being like, \"Hey man, how do I get this thing? How do I, what do I do with it?\" And then, you know, you're gonna have to try to teach them, but, that's just gonna be the way it is. also, last question. It's" }, { "speaker": "guest_2", "time": "54:13", "start": 3253.19, "text": "gonna get crazy, man." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "54:15", "start": 3254.73, "text": "Yeah, exactly. I'm, I'm ant- I'm anticipating the next few months" }, { "speaker": "guest_2", "time": "54:29", "start": 3268.64, "text": "Yeah, that's a, that's a really interesting question, something I think about a lot. You know, when we move into this kind of hyperbitcoinization world where Bitcoin becomes the, the dominant form of money and, and is the global, you know, medium of exchange and all these things that Bitcoiners unit of account in the future, I think that it'll be very useful to kind of track the behavior of the economy, right? Because everything's on this open ledger, you can track the behavior of all different economy or economic participants What they're doing with their money, and, and not, not in like a forensic way, right? There's like the whole chainalysis people where they're literally doing forensics on like who you are and, you know, where your money is going. Like, I'm not talking about stuff like that because I also am a big proponent of the whole freedom aspect of Bitcoin and privacy and all these things, but I'm talking more so you can track the behavior of, of the economy as a whole and, you know, just to kind of gauge where we are in things like economic cycles Understanding of the behavior of money in combination with, other macroeconomic factors, I think will give you an even more accurate picture of what's going on in terms of things like business cycles and stuff like that than ever." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "55:42", "start": 3341.91, "text": "Yeah. So, yeah, we'll just have to see what, what happens, but hey, so Will, really enjoyed chatting with you. Before we let you go, where can listeners find you online?" }, { "speaker": "guest_2", "time": "55:51", "start": 3350.62, "text": "Yeah. So, I'm on Twitter at, w clemente and then III, 'cause I'm the third, so I and then as well, I'm, I do a, weekly newsletter that I put out, on Monday, it's on, on my Substack, which is in my bio on my Twitter, and then on Friday it actually goes out on, Anthony Pompiliano Substack, and then on Saturday we do a weekly, you know, very short, like fifteen, twenty minute recap of, kind of the developments on chain. Yeah, I'm mostly on Twitter, I'm super active on Twitter, especially now that I'm home from school, I'm pretty Posts in different metrics and stuff, so that's probably the best way to get at me." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "56:31", "start": 3391.14, "text": "Excellent, thank you, Will, for joining me." }, { "speaker": "guest_2", "time": "56:33", "start": 3392.79, "text": "Thanks so much, Stefan. I had a really good time." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "56:35", "start": 3395.47, "text": "So I hope you found that one useful. As I've mentioned before, I'm not a trader myself, but I still find these discussions interesting just to understand where we are in the cycle, where we're at. and of course, follow Will. as for me, you can find this show notes at stephanelivera dot com slash two seven four, and usually I'll get a transcript up in a couple of days afterwards. Also, make sure you subscribe and share the show with your family and friends so that they are getting access to good quality Bitcoin information. Thanks for listening, and I will see you in the citadels." } ] }