{ "episodeId": "SLP312", "speakers": { "stephan": { "name": "Stephan Livera", "role": "host", "tag": "STEPHAN" }, "mark_moss": { "name": "Mark Moss", "role": "guest", "tag": "MARK" } }, "segments": [ { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "00:08", "start": 8.49, "text": "Hi, you're listening to Stephan Livera. Podcast, a show about Bitcoin. Today, for episode three hundred and twelve, Mark Moss, entrepreneur, investor, and host of the Mark Moss Show on YouTube and on iHeartRadio, joins me on the show, and we're talking about a range of things, starting with the energy crisis. We talk about what's causing this, why is it going on, as well as the cycles that are going on and how we are moving just through this period of immense change in our world today. So we talk about dealing with it and how to respond to this, as well as Obviously Bitcoin. This show is brought to you by Swan Bitcoin. Sign up with swanbitcoin dot com to accumulate Bitcoin with a, either a lump sum purchase or by setting up your automatic recurring buy, or as I like to call it, Bitcoin savings plan. Now, Swan Bitcoin is available internationally. You can sign up and wire in US dollars, or if you're in the US, you can obviously wire in, or you can set up an ACH pull and that automatically withdraws the fiat from your account, purchases Bitcoin, and withdraws it to your self-custody. And for For those high net worth investors or corporate entities or business entities looking to stack Bitcoin with some additional guidance and premium level support, there is Swan Private. So if you wanna sign up for that, go to swanprivate dot com and complete the form and someone from the team will be in touch with you. Lend at HoddleHoddle is a peer to peer Bitcoin backed lending platform so you can lend or borrow stablecoins globally and anonymously using Bitcoin as collateral. With Lend at HoddleHoddle, you no longer have to sell your Bitcoin to get some short term liquidity, you can actually Your Bitcoin and still control your collateral with one of three keys in escrow throughout the whole deal. Now, this is a peer-to-peer market, so you set your own terms in terms of the APR and so on and the length of time for that deal. HodlHodl are going through a major security upgrade and the lending platform will be back up from the 11th of October. There's improvements coming and sign up at lend.hodlholdl.com. Bitcoin mining has become a lot more popular this year, and so for those of you who are interested to get involved, compassmining Making it easy for everybody. You go to the website, you select an ASIC, and you can purchase it and have that shipped to a facility that has been vetted by the CompuS mining team. So you select that facility, and then you join a mining pool, and then after that, you start receiving Bitcoin, and you're just paying the hosting fees. Also, CompuS have launched CompuS at Home, so you can have mining equipment shipped to your home in the US, and they've even got a CompuS at Home mining guide. So CompuS is making mining accessible" }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "02:40", "start": 159.82, "text": "to Onto the show. Mark, welcome to the show. Yeah, thanks so much, Stefan. I'm, so excited to be here. Yeah, so Mark, you've been doing a lot of cool stuff. I think you're really good at sewing together these different macroeconomic themes, as well as talking about this idea of different cycles and what are we seeing and how that is playing out in our world, today. So, yeah, I, and I know you just recently posted about energy crisis as well, so maybe we should get into some of that. What's- What's, what's going on in these crazy global energy markets?" }, { "speaker": "mark_moss", "time": "03:15", "start": 194.72, "text": "Yeah, you know, I've always just kind of, I've just always kind of had this way where, I don't know, my mind puts like patterns together, and I've just kind of picked things up, and it's worked really good for me throughout my career, both investing and as an entrepreneur, seeing like things develop and trends, and so I've been really good at finding trends, jumping on trends, both for investing and for business, and so, yeah, I've kind of translated that to For anybody that's paying attention, but someone like me who's been studying these trends for, for almost two decades now, I, I mean, man, what I'm seeing is just unbelievable, and I'm surprised more people aren't, aren't waking up to this, and, and they will be. So specifically about the energy crisis, which is literally affecting the entire world right now, a lot of people think it's just happening over there, wherever there is. this morning, at the time of this recording, I should say, Bitcoin is on a tear, so we're stoked Earlier that natural gas had a move that made Bitcoin blush, a forty percent candle today. Yeah. And so prices are spiking all over the world, as a matter of fact, they're up like eight hundred percent throughout Europe. and the point that I made in this, tweet thread I just put out and, and, In the video that I did about it, is that this is all being done by policy. It's man-made. This is the-- I don't know if it's necessarily their intention, but it's the result of their intentions. And, I made this video which I, was actually following up for, from a video thirteen months ago where I said there was rolling blackouts happening in California, where I'm from, and, I said warning, what's happening in California is coming for the rest of the country, and it's coming for the rest of the world. And the way I was able to predict that thirteen months ago is because it was being done by policy." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "05:03", "start": 303.26, "text": "Yeah, that's a really good point, and I, I hundred percent agree with you there, because it's not like, say, hundreds of years ago, humanity was poor and we just didn't have energy. Now, it's like we have the technology, but it's by choice, rather choice of the politicians and of people who are pushing things in that direction, and they are, in essence, outlawing cheap and reliable energy, which is really sad to see." }, { "speaker": "mark_moss", "time": "05:27", "start": 327.33, "text": "Yeah, I mean, it's, it's unbelievable, and, and all this goes down to something, I know you're super, deep into, you know, the Austrian school, and really it's, it's all central planning, and that's the problem, right? These central planners think that they can make changes to a complex system, without thinking about the consequences of that. And so basically what they've done is that, you know, in order to save the world a hundred years from now, because, temperature might go up by one point five degrees Literally, people moved out to the desert where it's a hundred and twenty-five degrees in the summer. so I think adding one or two degrees could work, but in order to save the planet from there, they're literally putting lives at risk today. So throughout Europe right now, because the natural gas problem that they have, they're saying people could be freezing to death this winter. and so, the fact that they're literally shutting these down now, you know, I, I tried to not get into the science of it, and I certainly could if we wanted to Just pure policy, and I, I know a lot of people will say, \"Hey, Mark, stick to finance, stick to Bitcoin.\" But with, if you don't understand the policy, you can't understand what's happening, and so they've just decided to shut down our energy sources, both natural gas and coal, and even nuclear, to go to what, Alex Epstein calls \"unreliables,\" right? Because the wind or solar, wind doesn't blow all the time, solar doesn't, the sun doesn't shine all the time, and that's exactly what's happened What's really, really rich, I mean, it's just amazing, you can't write this any better, is a few weeks ago in the EU, the leaders got together as part of the UN, they're having a big meeting coming up here soon, but they got together in this pre-meeting, and they doubled down on their goals to really cut down on, on cheap abundant energy. And, what's so rich about that is PM of, UK, Boris Johnson, said, quote We are going to set the example, the UK will, they'll set the example. They wanna be the springboard for the rest of Europe. And what's so funny, or I, I don't know if it's funny or not if you live there, but what's ironic about that is the UK is the absolute worst, they're having the biggest problems in the world. And to frame it up a little bit, just like in California. So in California, they shut down natural gas, they shut down coal, they shut down two out of three nuclear reactors to move to, to renewables, wind and But even more, and this is, this, this, I don't get this piece, even more what they thought is that, well, what we'll do is we'll just get energy from our next door neighbor states, Nevada and, Arizona, whenever we need extra. So for us to have these mandates, we're gonna shut our energy down, but we'll just buy the same dirty energy from our next door neighbor, and somehow, I guess, that's okay. The problem is that when California needs it, so do the neighbors, and they don't have any left over In the UK, so they have, they have massive, reserves of natural gas, but, you know, climate, we're not gonna get out of the ground. and so let's just buy it from our neighbors Like, what's the difference? And so all of Europe has literally shut down all their natural gas, even though there's mass-- massive reserves of natural gas, in the Netherlands, they just shut down their natural gas, plants, which produce twenty percent of the natural gas for Europe. and now all of Europe is dependent on Russia for natural gas." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "08:55", "start": 535.08, "text": "It's crazy." }, { "speaker": "mark_moss", "time": "08:57", "start": 536.56, "text": "you know?" }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "08:57", "start": 537.28, "text": "Yeah." }, { "speaker": "mark_moss", "time": "08:58", "start": 538.08, "text": "Yeah. And it, it" }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "08:59", "start": 539.2, "text": "reminds me as well of, these kind of virtue signaling celebrities who will be all- About, oh, you should shut your emissions, but I will still fly all over the world, I will still have multiple mansions, that's what they will do, right? And they, they believe in this idea, and they-- some of the big corporations get behind it as well, so the likes of Apple and others who will say, \"Oh, look, we're, we're not doing the carbon stuff, we bought an offset, so somebody else is gonna do that, right? And someone else can do our dirty work.\" And it's the same kind of thing with the states, we're That's the thing with energy, you need it to be reliable, right? If some child is being born and you need an incubator or, you know, you need something to save someone's life, the energy must be reliable, it must be available. You can't just sort of play this game of, \"Oh, we're gonna move everything to wind and solar.\" But unfortunately, and this is all around the world, even in Australia, I'm not in Australia now myself, but even in Australia, this, they're, they're off with the fairies. They are saying, \"Yeah, seems insane that the people have come to accept all of this as well, because you must think, well, there would be all these people who are rioting in the streets because they can't get their air conditioning or heating when they need it. it just seems really weird to me. I wonder what, what do you think about that? Like, why are people going with this?" }, { "speaker": "mark_moss", "time": "10:24", "start": 623.52, "text": "let's, let's talk about why they're going with it. but before I do, I wanna talk about two points that you made while you were just talking. The first thing you talked about happening for different reasons. So for example, all throughout Eur-- well, they're all man-made, but, throughout Europe, they've transitioned, again, away from coal, away from natural gas, away from nuclear. and, apparently this year, this summer was a very, low year for wind. The wind was abnormally low this year, and, they didn't produce enough power this year. but over in, in the US and in Asia, it's a different problem. Over there, they rely on hydro- Power, and we had droughts this year. And so because there was droughts, they didn't produce enough power. And so what's interesting is they were affected for different reasons, natural reasons, but it shows the, the fact of these unreliables. You can't just, oh, we had a low wind year, I guess people died. Oh, I guess we had a drought here, no power this year. And so that's what they're literally doing. So like in, In China, for example, right now as we speak, they're literally starting to shut down their factories and starting to ration when they can run at different times because they don't have enough power. Well, the world is already at the breaking point on supply chain issues. Like we're already like barely hanging on, and now they're literally having to shut down production because they don't have enough energy. That's in China, in Europe is the same thing. So anyway, that just kind of shows these unrelables for different reasons, different parts of the world. There's one more thing that you And I want to talk about also real quickly. And you talked about, this kind of virtue signaling where, we might call it greenwashing, where, I can just produce as much as I want and I'll just buy some carbon credits, right? And I'll offset that, I'll virtue signal that, greenwash it. And what the government does is they think they can put policies in place that would affect or curb people's use. So like in America, smoking is bad for you, so, oh, I have a great idea, let's just add a bunch" }, { "speaker": "mark_moss", "time": "12:27", "start": 746.52, "text": "But they've done the same thing with carbon credits, where they say, \"Well, here's what we'll do, is we'll just charge companies to p-produce carbon, and that will just be enough in itself to get them to, you know, reduce that.\" but it, it hasn't, and, and here's where it adds to the problem. So the policy's already made the problem as bad as it is. But on top of it, in Europe, they have what's called cap and trade. So cap and trade is basically, keep producing as much carbon as you Because everyone is forced to buy it now, the demand has gone up, and so the, the prices have gone up, and at the same time, the governments have restricted The amount of carbon credits. So the demand has gone up, the supply has come down, so what happens? Well, of course, the cost goes sky high. Well, now the producers of the energy, the electricity companies, one, electricity companies need natural gas, which they can't get, it's up eight hundred percent, and now to even make it worse, they're being forced by governments to buy carbon credits, and it's pushed the prices up so high that throughout the UK, over a dozen energy companies have already gone bankrupt. Throughout Germany, all, all the companies are falling insolvent Right now. Yeah. And so if the policies weren't bad enough restricting it, now they're putting these cap and trade things on. I mean, it's just insanity." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "13:44", "start": 824.15, "text": "Well, actually, one point I wanted to touch on there as well is that it takes a big investment to do these big, like to make the, you know, coal and natural gas and basically any of these large industrial scale level energy, it takes a, a big investment and a lot of time. And so what happens over time is, you know, part of the, I guess the theory, if you believed in it, is created this kind of set of ground rules that people could trust and rely on. But what's happening now is effectively governments are out here rugpulling all these people who years ago made these investments into these big, whatever it was, coal or natural gas or other energy, reliable and cheap energy, and now because of the game is constantly, they're, they're all worried about getting rugpulled. And so in that sense, it makes it harder and harder for them to go and engage in a new project because they're like, \"Well, if I go and start this new coal project, I don't in five or ten years, and that, that may impact my payback period, I may not be profitable on this project, therefore, I'm just not gonna make that investment. And so then the population suffers because now they don't have access to cheap and reliable energy, which previously we took for granted. We just thought, oh, turn the light switch on and the lights come on. And we are really getting to that point. And actually, one other point I wanted to touch on with the whole virtue signaling aspect of it, there might be some rich people or celebrities who genuinely think, yeah, look, But the problem even there is it's an accessibility thing. So maybe a rich person can afford to pay this fancy offset and to do all this stuff, but for poor and middle class people, they can't necessarily afford it, and so that's a real problem." }, { "speaker": "mark_moss", "time": "15:19", "start": 919.17, "text": "Yeah, it's a massive problem, and, and, and a practical example of that is I'm in Puerto Rico, and Puerto Rico has massive power outage and shortage problems as well. a week ago on my side of the island, the power kept going out over and over and over. I mean, we literally were going like Over eight hundred thousand people on the island were affected by that. I had work to do, I needed to work, and so I literally got in my car, well, actually I hopped on a plane and flew to the other side of the island, and I posted up in the city for a week where there was plenty of electricity, and I got a hotel room, and I rented a little office down the street, and, you know, I had to leave my house, and that was kind of a pain in the butt, but like my life didn't suffer, because I had money Man, their food spoiling in the, in the refrigerator, and so, yeah, the poor people are adversely affected by this in, in a really, really big way. And so when they, when, you know, you keep hearing about these central planners talking about equality and, you know, income inequality and things like that, all their policies do is adversely affect the poor people, and so it's kind of i-i-ironic, I guess you could say." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "16:29", "start": 989.24, "text": "Yeah, yeah, and well, I guess that also brings it back to that point of, why are they And vote in the person who's saying, \"This is nonsense, let's just have reliable and cheap energy.\" What's, what's going on? What's your take on why that's happening?" }, { "speaker": "mark_moss", "time": "16:45", "start": 1004.65, "text": "Well, I mean, unfortunately, I think the answer is actually somewhat simple, and, and, and it all comes down to education. The people haven't, one, haven't been educated, two, they've purposely been taught not to think for themselves. we've seen this very evident, throughout this last year, literally meme- Follow" }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "17:02", "start": 1022.04, "text": "the science." }, { "speaker": "mark_moss", "time": "17:03", "start": 1022.68, "text": "Yeah, literally memes going around Do not do your own research. That's, they're literally telling people that, do not do your own research. And so, one, we've been trained through school to not think about it, not, not, not to question these things, and now, like I said, being told to not question them. And the reason why I would say that is because, you know, somebody that's been taught basics in elementary of, you know, supply and demand, for example, would understand these things, but when I, when I posted some stuff about what was happening A bit cultivated, but, a lot of the comments did say like, \"Well, the, the, the government needs to take over the power companies. We need more central planning.\" And so a lot of people think that these problems that we're having with shortages are caused by capitalism, they're being caused by, free markets, and they're being caused by greedy people, and then they think that the answer is more central government. but what they're failing to realize is it's the actual central government that's causing the problem. And again, like I said, if Just, I mean, my kids can understand this concept, it's so simple. Like, imagine if there was two power companies here in, in Puerto Rico, they would both be competing to offer me better product at a better price with better service, and so they would each be innovating to try to get cleaner energy in a way they could produce it more for less, and, they would make sure that my service never was interrupted, because if my service was in- interrupted, I would go to the competitor, right? And so they would compete and they would make things better, but when the government Governors take it over, and even worse, politicians take it over. And so, we saw this happen in Venezuela, which has, you know, more-- Venezuela has more oil than anywhere in the world, more than Saudi Arabia. But when they went-- became socialist, they pulled the people that knew how to run energy, pulled them out, and they put their brother-in-laws and their cronies in, and of course, they don't know anything about running energy. And so now today, they can't even get the oil out of the ground barely. and, and We saw AOC come over here a few months ago and hold this, conference, and she said, \"We need to shut down the diesel, the gas diesel generator plant.\" Which produces twenty percent of the energy on the island. We need to shut that down. And she said, \"Uh, it's not gonna have-- I've talked to people, and they said it's gonna have no adverse effects on the amount of energy and the price that people pay.\" And like, really? So like, you can shut down twenty percent of the production in an island that already has massive problems, and that's not gonna have any effect. And so when you have politicians that have no understanding of how to run energy, neither do I. but the problem is you put them into positions to run these things, and, and central planning always fails." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "19:51", "start": 1190.62, "text": "Yeah, and you make a lot of great points there. And also, in many cases, it was earlier interventions that caused some of these problems. And you know what all else is funny is, depending on the political rhetoric, It varies on different countries, but sometimes people try to frame it like cap and trade is actually a free market thing, 'cause look, there's a price that you put on the carbon. But wait, it's actually a government-set price. It's, it's price fixing. The government has set a price and it's central planning. But people unfortunately haven't taken the time to do the learning on real economics and competence now isn't valued. It's almost like virtue signaling is more important than competence, which is a bad trend for society and the world to be going in, isn't it? And it's like, I think it ties into" }, { "speaker": "mark_moss", "time": "20:34", "start": 1234.21, "text": "the virtue signaling now is trust the experts." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "20:37", "start": 1237.29, "text": "Yeah." }, { "speaker": "mark_moss", "time": "20:38", "start": 1237.93, "text": "Right? That's the virtue. So it's like almost now virtuous to say, \"I'm just gonna default to the expert\" as opposed to me trying to learn anything about it, which is crazy." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "20:46", "start": 1245.84, "text": "Exactly. It's all about compliance, and I think even all the mask rules around, I mean, it, yeah. So that's one angle, and I think, you know, the cycles aspect that you've been talking about a lot as well, it, it sort of starts to make you" }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "21:02", "start": 1261.89, "text": "These things went down in history is that people, the, the environment around them was just so bad that they weren't able to push back and resist, and maybe we're coming into another time like that." }, { "speaker": "mark_moss", "time": "21:13", "start": 1272.88, "text": "Yeah, well, so, you know, I've been doing a lot of work and looking at historical cycles throughout, multiple different kind of areas. Just, you know, when you're looking at, especially like in financial markets, you're looking for like indicators, and indicators, hopefully they're leading indicators, which kind of tell you what may come next. So, you know, unsustainable debt levels, zero interest rates, things like that, and they kind of predict what comes next. but what happens is with indicators is you don't wanna look at just one, you wanna look" }, { "speaker": "mark_moss", "time": "21:41", "start": 1300.91, "text": "at work in different ways, so you have this, this two hundred and fifty year revolution cycle, which is, pretty amazing, and that's like a political, social, cultural thing, but then you have a, a technological revolution cycle that works on a fifty year, so a two fifty cycle, a fifty year cycle, and then you have like a financial revolution cycle that runs on like an eighty year cycle. And so they work on different timeframes and they're all happening at different times, but sometimes, occasionally, like right now, all three actually converge at the same time. And so, like, we're kind of at this point right now, and I think it's pretty evident to people. But, but if we look at just like kind of the political, social, cultural side, what's interesting is on an eighty-four year cycle, it's like a populist uprising or regime change cycle. So eighty-four years ago was the end of World War II. We had Mussolini, we had Hitler. we had FDR did the New Deal and changed America kind of to a socialist country. eighty four years before that was, Karl Marx wrote the Communist Manifesto, which led to the European s- Spring, which is the largest revolution in, in European history. so those are eighty four year cycles, but, three eighty four year cycles, three times eighty four equals two hundred and fifty two. So two hundred and fifty years, we have a revolution. And basically, as far back as you go through history, you see that," }, { "speaker": "mark_moss", "time": "23:04", "start": 1384.45, "text": "want to control them, and then they get a little bit of power, a little bit of control, and then that power grows, oppression grows, until the point it's too much to bear, and then revolution happens, and then freedom, and it just kind of repeats over and over. So two hundred and fifty years ago from right now was the American French Revolution, two hundred and fifty years before that was the Protestant Reformation, and both of those represent, the people rejecting centralization or rejecting globalization and moving to decentralization. So in the United States States, we rejected the monarchy, the centralization, the globalization of, of the, of the, of the crown, and set up a decentralized government. So the, the United States was set up as a republic, which was a decentralized form of governance, which was pretty amazing, when you look at it today. and I think it's pretty evident to anybody, I mean, if you're paying attention to these, what we're just even talking about here, these problems that we're just talking about as far as energy are the result of central planning or, or, you know We see that we're like literally at peak centralization. We have the World Economic Forum, the World Health Organization, the World Trade Organization, the World Meteorological Association, we have the UN, we have the IMF, and the whole world now like peak centralization, but at the same time, we're starting to see it all falling apart. So their policies are now starting to have massive adverse effects. And at the same time, we're seeing the population push back against that. Now, pre-pandemic, there was over ten Countries with over one million people each marching in the streets, the pandemic somehow made that go away, but it's all coming back pretty quickly. mainstream media won't, won't show that, but I know you're from Australia, and it's, it's, it's, it's breaking apart down there really bad, and what-- so we can see that peak centralization is here, we can see that the world is pushing back on it at the same time, and we can also see that central planning is felling in a spectacular way, like we're talking about And when peop-- the, the, the breaking point for every revolution, and we just go back to like the Arab Spring from several years ago or any other one before that, the breaking point is when people can't eat. Yeah. And with the energy supply chain problems that we're having throughout Europe, that's what's starting to happen. And so, I think that we're gonna hit peak centralization, and then we'll move back to a decentralized form of governance and this, this kind of globalization falls apart." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "25:34", "start": 1534.05, "text": "Right. Yeah, and so look, I think I broadly, I think a lot of what you're saying makes sense. Now, let's say the steel man, right? The, the, the, the person might counter argument to you here, and I don't necessarily believe this, but they might say, \"Look, Mark, it's transitory. It's, we've just had temporary shutdowns because of all the, the COVID shutdowns, and, you know, once things open up, then, you know, the prices might come back down, and" }, { "speaker": "mark_moss", "time": "26:02", "start": 1562.07, "text": "so it If you've ever ran a business, you would understand that once prices go up, they don't usually come back down. So that's one. But two, what I'd say is that I don't believe they're transitory. Larry Fink from BlackRock doesn't think it's transitory, most of the Fed doesn't think it's transitory either, and the reason why is because these are being done by policy, as I've just kind of broken down with the energy, for example. So they are artificially-- I shouldn't say artificial, but man-made pushing the prices of energy up To reverse their policy. And so, you know, I just talked about, in China, they're literally shutting down factories because they don't have enough energy, which is only gonna make supply chain issues worse, not better. So one Watch the policies. If the policies magically reversed, okay, back to a free market, then potentially, yeah, prices could come back down and there'd be, there'd be some, transitory of that. The other thing that I'd say though, too, is then this kind of gets into the next, piece, which is the financial side, the financial revolution. but the big problem that we have is that we don't have a free market, and the way that a-- the way that a market, so the central planners think that A market is like a machine that could be built and managed, but it's not. It's organic, right? It's made up of people that are irrational, that have wants, needs, and desires that change all the time. And so how do you coordinate an economy in the US of three hundred and thirty million people or, you know, seven, eight billion people in the world? And how does the exact product I need show up on the shelf at the exact time I want it at the price I need it? Well, it's done through coordination, through the price signal, and the price signal has Eight trillion dollars in the last year, and so it's distorted the price signal, and so people don't know what's going on anymore. And so, normally in a time when supply chains were backing up, and now prices are sky high, and people think, \"Oh, well, just, you know, it'll, it'll find its equilibrium.\" Well, it, it could, if there was true price discovery. So what would happen is, the prices to unload ships would go way up, so people would go build more facilities to unload ships, and then that increased supply But because of this price signal so messed up, it's preventing that from happening. So because inflation is so high, it's too expensive for me to go build a new port to pull the ships off. So the regulations are too high, the costs are too high because of inflation, the materials are in short supply, so I can't go alleviate that need. And so, that's why it's not transitory in my opinion." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "28:37", "start": 1717.2, "text": "Back to the show in a moment. Have you thought about improving your security with Unchained Capital? With number go up, it's time to think about upgrading your Bitcoin security beyond custodians or even single signature wallets. With Unchained, you can create a two or three multi-signature vault, so you hold two hardware wallets and obviously keep them in different locations, and Unchained hold the third key. So if you're not sure about all this stuff, Unchained make it easy for you. They've got a concierge onboarding package, or there's also a free consultation option. So just remember, you wanna eliminate single points of failure, because no matter how careful you are, sometimes things can go wrong, and when they do, you want to be confident that your savings aren't going to zero. So with the Unchained Concierge service, you can have hardware wallets shipped to you, and you'll have a video call done so you can get set up, even if you have never held your Bitcoin private keys before. 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It offers very high security at such a relatively low price point, and it has all sorts of security features and new, abilities like the ability to use seed X or, or the ability to have an address explorer to view the addresses on device. There's all sorts of features, so go and explore at coinkite dot com and use the code Livera to get a discount on your cold card. Now, don't forget about backing up your coins. CipherSafe dot io are creating metal seed backup products like the CipherWheel, and they've got a new product Coming called the CipherGrid. This has two plates for all twenty-four seed words, and you get an automatic center punch, so you go there and you stamp in for those words, normally four tiles or four letters per word, in this case, and you can lock this one with a padlock, and you get a tamper evidence seal provided. This product is fireproof, rustproof, and waterproof. So when you're securing and backing up your Bitcoin, make sure you can recover it if something happened to your hardware wallet device, and don't just trust that piece of paper, and make sure you and your And your loved ones can recover those coins if something happens, so go to ciphersafe dot io and use the code livera to order yours. Back to the show. Yeah. very, very well put. And I think it comes back to the Austrian story and explanation around malinvestment, and that what's happened is cheap credit has created a world where people get the wrong signal, they get sent the wrong signal and think, \"Oh, look, I can go, these resources are available for me to use,\" but actually, when they try to go and use them, they're not there when they Because what's happened is the capital that was needed is just simply, it's not, it's not there. Like they've been sent the wrong signal, and that's very unfortunate. And so whether it's because of that, that aspect or they're being politically stopped because of, again, the virtue signaling the politicians who stopped them from producing cheap and reliable energy in that example, and it can have such strong knock-on effects as well, because if energy costs go up, the cost for all these other things goes up as well, because you gotta, you gotta produce things. How, how else you produce? So it's a very and transport, yeah. Yeah, exactly. How do you transport the goods to where it's needed? And so it's such a difficult thing. And so I guess how are you thinking about it in terms of what people can do about this, right? So let's say Maybe you're not necessarily like really rich, but you're kind of, you know, you're cognizant about some of these things, you're concerned about these things. What are some steps that you can take to try to protect yourself?" }, { "speaker": "mark_moss", "time": "32:33", "start": 1952.91, "text": "Well, I think, what's interesting when you look at these three revolutionary cycles that are converging right now, so at a time when, like, the, like politically, socially, culturally, like I said, the world is kind of peak globalization and the pendulum's about to swing back the other way, what's interesting is that typically solutions You know, imaginary things, but typically solutions come to problems, and what's interesting is, we have this fifty-year technological revolution cycle that's hitting at the exact same time. And, these aren't new technologies, not like an iPhone or Uber or Airbnb. I'm talking about a, a technological revolution that literally changes the course of humanity So there's only been five, just run through them real quick, but we have, we had in the 1700s, we had the, Industrial Revolution, which literally changed the whole world, brought people from farms and cottage industry into cities and factories. then we had approximately fifty years later, we had, steel and steam engines. So all of humanity, we had manpower and horsepower, and now we have steam engines. That was a massive invention, and steel allowed us to go from a two-story brick building to skyscrapers and bridges and things like that Later we had electricity. Now, at the time, this is an important piece, at the time, electricity was kind of like a digital candle. Like, do we need that? I mean, candles work pretty good, they've worked for five thousand years, right? Do we need a digital candle? But electricity was so much more, and it enabled us to do what we're doing today. it changed humanity. About fifty years later, we had the age of oil, automobiles, and mass production, assembly lines, and so again, all of humanity, people walked and rode horses, and now we have cars. Now we can transport materials, now we can tr- you know, transport things. then about fifty years later, nineteen seventy-one, we had the age of the microprocessor, which brought us personal computers, which brought us telecommunications, which Today, 1971 add 50 years puts us at right now today, and we're witnessing another technological revolution, not a new technology, a technological revolution that will literally change the course of humanity. And what's interesting about that technological revolution is, again, the solution comes to the problem. Well, the problem is peak centralization, peak globalization. That's the problem. The solution that we have, the next tech-technological revolution, is giving us decentralized technology. It solves the problem that we have, which is, which is pretty important to understand. So, I think how do people navigate through this? I think one is to understand that we actually have a tool now that can solve that problem And it can solve that problem in a number of ways that people, can take advantage of. So one, it can help us store our, our money. So during these technological revolutions, massive wealth is created, massive wealth transfers. If you go back and study just the last couple, like the, the, the, the, you know, computer age or information age boom, or you go back to the automobile boom or go back to the steel age, you'll notice that each time it was different groups of people that got rich. It wasn't the same people over and over. the old people go out, the incumbents go out, creative destruction, and the new wave ushers in a new pe- whole new, you know, set of people. And so this is a massive opportunity for people to understand this technological revolution and can jump into it. And, we're gonna need money to navigate this because as prices go up for everything, we're gonna need more money for that. but the other way that I think it really helps is it literally solves the root of the problem. The root of the problem is centralization, right? The central planning, that's the root. And so, you know, for years I've listened to the libertarians and the, the anarchists and these people, and they, you know, they, they understand the problem, and rightfully so, you know, they're correct and they're, they're angry about it, but they don't have a, they don't have a solution for it. And, and, and this decentralized revolution, Bitcoin, the technology, the platform, the network solves that, right? So one, it can help" }, { "speaker": "mark_moss", "time": "36:30", "start": 2189.7, "text": "Solves the problem of centralization." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "36:32", "start": 2192.25, "text": "Yeah, yeah, and look, I think it's interesting as well. So obviously Bitcoin is massive, it's a huge part of this. Obviously, you know, regularly saving into Bitcoin is, is, I think, a big part of the answer. I also am seeing more and more of an appetite for this idea. People frame it in different ways. Some people have said it like it's a national divorce or it's a devolution of power down from the federal down to the state levels, and we're starting to see that come into the conversation, and Actually, people on the left as well, and so it's, it seems to be, there's a little bit more of a conversation around that, at least as I read the conversation in, in the US. And so, yeah, this is something that libertarians and, you know, my friend Jeff Dye, over at the Mises Institute, has done a talk called \"Smaller is Better,\" and this idea of trying to, wherever you can, push that power closer to where that individual is. So instead of federal, have it at state, instead of state, have it at local, instead And we're going to see more of this idea of different, you know, people move to just be in the places that actually support freedom. Maybe that's, that's really where it's going to go." }, { "speaker": "mark_moss", "time": "37:38", "start": 2258.05, "text": "Well, it's, it's, it's massive, and so I think it's, it's e-evident, to anybody paying attention, like the world's trending towards totalitarianism, authoritarianism, or whatever you wanna call it. And, not only is it trending that way, it's even more scary than that in a sense where technology is giving these authoritarians Social credit score and your CBDCs and your health pass and your global ID and all these things into one location that could be turned in on and off. And so the world is trending that way, and I just ask people the question, like, \"What do you think?\" breaks that trend. Does the government wake up one day and say, \"Ah, we have too much power, let's give some freedom back?\" And I would say the answer is no, that doesn't happen. and I don't think it's really through guns either. I think the answer is kind of to your point, competition. Competition is what breaks that trend, and so in the United States, we saw, Texas and Florida outcompete New York and California, and massive people came, or left those states, productive people left, and then both governors found themselves on the chopping block we saw, and, and I think it gets even bigger when, so when states can compete, cities can compete, or when nations can compete. And so, you know, I grew up under the Cold War, the, the Russia and the Berlin Wall fell when I was in high school, so I kind of grew up under that. I had lots of friends who had moved from oppressive countries in Europe to the United States. When they came, they came penniless. They couldn't get their money out of the banks, they couldn't carry their gold bars, they couldn't bring their real" }, { "speaker": "mark_moss", "time": "39:11", "start": 2351.29, "text": "What does it really matter to the country if you leave, but they keep all your wealth, right? But now today we can like take our wealth with us, which I think speeds that competition loop up, and I think, that is what breaks that trend. and then ultimately, I mean, the point of, of what you just said, you know, smaller governments, I'm, of course, I'm a hundred percent into that, and that's been the goal of the, the libertarians or specifically more the anarchists for a long time. The problem is, how do you Grip from the central planners in order to be left alone at your state or city level. And so that's where there wasn't that practical application, and I think that's kind of where Bitcoin, fits in." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "39:52", "start": 2391.8, "text": "Yeah, that's right. And I think we might potentially see some smaller states with an incentive to go that direction, as an example, Texas, right? They've got their own energy grid. Obviously, we've been talking about energy as well, so that's an important part. they have historically a culture of being very more independent, more of a discussion around se so I think that is-- that's an example, right? And maybe elsewhere in the world, there might be other countries that perhaps, though not perfect, have developed a lot compared to what people's conception of those countries was, say, twenty, thirty, forty years ago. Of, of saying we might have looked at those countries and thought, \"Oh, that's really too-- just not developed enough, I wouldn't go and live there.\" But really now, twenty, thirty years on, they've developed up a lot, and although they wouldn't necessarily have the exact same, very high standards in the West of, you know, the typical US, America, UK, sorry, Australia, Canada, they, they could have more of a viable alternative for people, and so maybe that's something that people will really start to think about more, and it's something But, yeah, I wonder what your thoughts are on that, that kind of international aspect and the countries that have come up a lot recently." }, { "speaker": "mark_moss", "time": "41:04", "start": 2464.01, "text": "Yeah. So one, I mean, just back to what you, you said, the succession or some sort of, divorce, I, I think at this point it's kind of the only way forward. The, the two sides are just so far apart, and not just, in the US, but Canada, Australia, same thing. and so, I mean, you need to kind of-- there needs to be that separation. And to your point, internationally, you may have to go and do that. I'm a surfer, so I've been traveling the whole world, going surfing all over the world, and, and typically we go to very remote places 'cause we're trying to find places where people don't go, so the waves aren't as crowded. and so I've been to a lot of very remote places all through Mexico, all through Central America, and, To, to your point, I mean, yeah, they're, you know, they have made massive improvements, but they're still not anywhere near what, what you might expect in Australia or, or the US or Canada. and so unfortunately, we're kind of at this point, I think, where there's nowhere in the world that you can go to have it all anymore. And so you need to figure out what's most important to you, and then you have to optimize for that. And so for me, like, freedom is the number one, value at the top of my list convenience in order to get more freedom. And so, I've been down to El Salvador a couple of times, throughout the year surfing. I've been down there since they did the Bitcoin beach thing. And, it's a beautiful country. The weather's awesome. I could live on the beach and surf and fish every day. I could live pretty free. Because, because those countries are so underdeveloped, there's a lot of just being left alone there. But at the same time, you don't have any of the conveniences or, or most Those. but the one thing that I think has really changed and at least even the plane filled out is that you pretty much have internet anywhere now. And I think as long as you have internet, like that seems to me like it's kind of like a, a base level. Like if I can get food, I can have a nice shelter, and I can be on the internet, like, then I'll definitely optimize for freedom. And I think, what we'll see is, and, and unfortunately this is gonna probably play out over a number of years or For example, has now opened up this program to attract investment into the country, just by making Bitcoin, legal reserve, or tender, it's brought all this investment in, and now they're encouraging it. If you invest three Bitcoin, you get, residency, et cetera. And so, you know, we'll see it develop, but it's, it's definitely gonna be a" }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "43:35", "start": 2615.0, "text": "slower road. Yeah, yeah, that's it. And I, I think it's, yeah, it's an interesting point as well around priorities. What's your priority? Because even there, you might think, well, it-- there's things like freedom against, like, all the restrictions and freedom from, so taxes, like, so, and then thinking about how, like, what's most important for you. And I guess that And, managing that process of transitioning your life out of the country that you once knew and loved, and maybe it's gone downhill a bit, and it's time to get out, or maybe even get out and take your family out with you. So I think those are things that freedom lovers are all thinking about at this point. And I'll tell you what, I'm getting a lot of messages, even from my listeners, and followers, who are saying, \"Oh, how'd you get out? How'd you do it? I'm, I wanna get out too.\" And" }, { "speaker": "mark_moss", "time": "44:29", "start": 2669.07, "text": "yeah, Sovereign Man, Simon Black, for like over a decade, and, he's really helped shape my worldview kinda to where I have today, and, and I've been waiting for this to happen for like over a decade because I've been, I've been reading his stuff, right? And, I've always, I wanted to check out on politics a little bit, but I've been paying attention almost selfishly, waiting, 'cause I knew at some point those walls were gonna close in, at some point I was gonna have to leave. I wanna get out before the doors close" }, { "speaker": "mark_moss", "time": "45:00", "start": 2699.75, "text": "days where decades seem to happen, and so like for the last decade I've been waiting for this to happen, and like nothing has been happening, and then all of a sudden, like in a year, it's like, whoa, it's like, it's there. And so for me, you know, I see all these people, like you said in Australia that are stuck there, I get messages from them as well. And my goal, like, I don't wanna get stuck inside my country, and so like I would leave before that happens, but that's again my, is because I can live free there. And so everybody just, I guess, has their different levels that they're looking for." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "45:35", "start": 2735.06, "text": "Yeah, I think that's a good point. I mean, you, it might literally be worthwhile in, in this world where if you just wanna be able to live a normal life, and I think that's ultimately what a lot of people want. They're not necessarily very politically engaged or active, they just wanna be able to live and raise their family and grill and, you know, do those typical family things, right? And so it just forces a lot more people to start thinking" }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "46:00", "start": 2759.71, "text": "The narrative and the messaging, it just seems like the authorities and the, the powers that be have this way of controlling how everyone thinks, because the average person is just watching TV, and then anyone who's trying to speak out against it, they get censored, and, you know, for all we know, this, this conversation might get censored off of YouTube, who knows? But, yeah. It just, it, it, it is a bit concerning. And so in my mind, here's a couple of things I'm thinking about, like, so of course, yeah, there are some of Text, blogs, whatever. But then the issue is reach. You can't reach as many people. And so it's, it's, it's a unfortunate trade-off that we have to all really think about more carefully. I mean, I'm sure you think about this as well, right? You have a, a big audience on YouTube, and yet you don't wanna just say goodbye to that, 'cause obviously that's, you know, you need that. But I guess at the same time, you're trying to build onto other platforms, or is that, is that something you're looking" }, { "speaker": "mark_moss", "time": "46:55", "start": 2815.33, "text": "at?" }, { "speaker": "mark_moss", "time": "47:00", "start": 2819.71, "text": "If we're in a war, and you have to kind of learn the techniques for that, and so what I'm doing, what my plan is, is, there's a lot of new technology that's actually being built on the Bitcoin protocol, and so I'm looking at setting up some, some of my communities on that. I'm afraid if I go, you know, there's several communities right now. I mean, there's like Library, which, my YouTube videos go over there, and that's like this decentralized blockchain kind of thing. I'm not super confident in their Also, I spend all this time putting my audience over there, and then that gets shut down. and so there's a couple of communities that are opening up that I'm looking at, setting up that I think could be there long term, but to your point, you don't have the reach. And so this kind of art of war is like, let's use the enemy's weapons. and so let's continue to use YouTube, let's continue to use Twitter, let's continue to use the tools that they have. But I think we have to unfortunately, you know, toe Deep with them and, and give them the information that we need. And so that's my plan, that's what I'm working on right now, to continue to use YouTube and Twitter to get as close to the line as I can without going over it, but continue to pull people and then push them into a community that I can control. So one, I have an email list, so I kind of control that, but two, I wanna set up these communities, where then we can really talk about the things that we want, Anyway, that's, that's my, that's my plan for now." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "48:24", "start": 2904.32, "text": "Yeah. Yeah, and I think that's useful for, like, a lot of listeners of my show as well, because they might have their own content they're trying to make and put out there, and it's just useful for us to have these ways. And I think, I think you're right, because it would be silly to just kind of give up, cede that turf, when we've already spent time fighting to build up an audience or build up a, a brand. Yeah." }, { "speaker": "mark_moss", "time": "48:45", "start": 2925.2, "text": "You can't just cede that Up, and I don't wanna get banned either. Like, let's use their weapon against them. And I think if you're smart enough, it's easy enough to get your points across without getting banned, at least for now. Eventually we'll probably get there. but while we can, like, just use their tools and, and, and harvest people, you know, as much as we can. Yeah." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "49:09", "start": 2949.15, "text": "I think that's the cl- I think that is a clever approach and something we, we all have to think about because whether we're Bitcoiners trying to get our Bitcoin message out there Libertarians trying to talk about liberty, all of these things are going to get shut down eventually, like, at least that's, that seems, that's the current track we're on, so we have to be wary with that. But of course, there's also live events, and I know you've got a live event on soon, so why don't you tell us a little bit about that?" }, { "speaker": "mark_moss", "time": "49:37", "start": 2976.83, "text": "Yeah, I am having a live event while we're still able to have 'em. I thought about pushing it till next year, but at the rate we're going, I mean, who knows if Going to probably change the course of the world, I think we'll see the end of this giant centralization. Of course, the World Economic Forum says by twenty thirty, you'll own nothing and you'll be happy. Mark Carney, head of Bank of England and Bank of Canada and UN, et cetera, he says that you need to be prepared to have a worse life, you need to make-- you need to be prepared to not be able to fly, not be able to drive, not be able to eat meat, et cetera. And so they have a" }, { "speaker": "mark_moss", "time": "50:17", "start": 3016.72, "text": "plan for our That at probably the end of the decade, we'll see the end of the giant nation state, and I think there's massive hope and prosperity on the other side. The problem is, how do we get from here to there? And I think things unfortunately probably continue to get worse for the next several years, before we start to see things getting better. And so while I do have a message of hope, like I said, I wanna stay alive to, to survive and thrive that. And so I'm having a live event to kind of focus specifically on that, bringing some of the best people" }, { "speaker": "mark_moss", "time": "50:52", "start": 3052.1, "text": "Over the next couple years, and most importantly, kind of what you're doing or, or how you think you would survive that. You're a perfect person 'cause you're literally living it, as a refugee from your own country today. but that's what we're gonna talk about, and we're gonna look at it from like the political side, the, the financial side, tools that we have, financial tools that we have, and even getting into, you know, sustainable living, passports, Plan B, asset protection strategies 'cause I don't wanna own nothing by" }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "51:22", "start": 3082.14, "text": "Yeah, yeah, and I'm excited for it. I actually, yeah, I think it'll be a great event. I'm looking forward to it myself. So it'll be, November twelfth to fourteenth?" }, { "speaker": "mark_moss", "time": "51:30", "start": 3089.52, "text": "Yeah, yeah, November twelfth to fourteenth in Miami, which is, you know, Florida and Texas are those two states holding it down, so we wanna go bring them some business. So yeah, November, November twelfth to fourteenth in Miami, Stephan, myself, a bunch of, bunch of good Bitcoiners, bunch Knowledge, but also you need to build a community, and the community is just such an important piece that people, I think, really overlook. And so getting to events like this where you can actually meet people and build relationships and build rapport and have people to talk to and have people to lean on is also gonna be a massive piece of navigating this. And so, you know, I know you and I, we get to talk sometimes online, but like getting to hang out in person, and all the other people that can come and meet other people, it's a really important piece." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "52:19", "start": 3139.22, "text": "Yeah, For really, at least for the action-taking people to really meet up and start planning things and doing things, whether that is, you know, learning a bit more about Bitcoin or learning a bit more about what you're gonna do about it, learning how to protect your assets, I think there's a lot there, that people can learn and share their strategies on that. So, yeah, I think it'll be a really cool event, so I'm looking forward to that. I think that's probably all we've got time for for today. I've just, I've got to pack up and run" }, { "speaker": "mark_moss", "time": "52:52", "start": 3172.22, "text": "I'm all over YouTube, just search Mark Moss, or I'm really active on Twitter, one mark moss. the best place probably is just go to my website, just one mark moss dot com, one mark moss dot com, and you'll find information on the event and, and all my social media stuff." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "53:05", "start": 3185.21, "text": "Fantastic. Well, Mark, I enjoyed chatting with you, and I look forward to seeing you in person. Thanks so much, Stefan. Appreciate it. Get the show notes at stefanlivera dot com. Make sure to share the show so people can learn about Bitcoin, and I'll see you in the citadels." } ] }