{ "episodeId": "SLP325", "speakers": { "stephan": { "name": "Stephan Livera", "role": "host", "tag": "STEPHAN" }, "planb": { "name": "PlanB", "role": "guest", "tag": "PLANB" } }, "segments": [ { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "00:08", "start": 8.39, "text": "Hi and welcome to Stephan Livera podcast, a show about Bitcoin. Today, for episode three hundred and twenty five, Plan B re-joins me on the show. Now, for those of you who don't know, Plan B is a pseudonymous quant who is famous for various models, mostly the S two F modeling approach. And so we're talking about whether the S two F model is actually still on track or whether it is not on track, because there's been some discussion about it recently, and the publicized target was this idea that if Bitcoin doesn't hit a hundred K by the end of twenty twenty-one, the model would be invalidated. Now, Plan B and I get into that, as well as spelling out the differences in the different models that he talks about and uses, the failure conditions for the model, and we also talk about his floor model and also his thoughts on the supercycle. Now, this show is brought to you by Swa- Swan Bitcoin, swan dot com, the easy way to accumulate Bitcoin while also learning about Bitcoin with various free resources like Inventing Bitcoin, twenty-one Lessons, and Why Bitcoin. So with Swan, you can start off with a lump sum purchase and then set up your Bitcoin savings plan. And so with your Bitcoin savings plan, that's an automated purchase that pulls the fiat from your bank account, purchases Bitcoin, and then you can order withdraw that to your cold storage also. Now, if you're a high net worth individual individual or a company looking to stack, or perhaps you're invest-- you're interested in purchasing inside your IRA, Swan Private can help you here. 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That's l e n d dot h o d l h o d l dot com. Bitcoin mining has become very popular this year, and for those of you who aren't sure how to get started, compass mining dot io are the place to go. With Compass, you can purchase an ASIC machine, have that shipped to a hosting facility that has been vetted by the team, and you then select a mining pool, you pay the hosting fees, and you are now receiving Sats, and this can be done Without KYC also, so that's also a benefit for those of you interested in non-KYC stacking. If you're interested to have that machine shipped to your home, that's also possible if you're in the US with Compass at home, and they've also got a range of mining guides and material that you can get on their website. So go and get started, it's compassmining.io. And now onto the show with Plan B. Plan B, welcome back to the show. So, Plan B, lots of things have happened since we last spoke, and I thought it was time to get an update and hear from you how things are going. I know there's been a lot of confusion around the different models that's going on, and people are having this whole conversation about whether everything's on track or whether it's dead, it's over, or is it maybe it's not on track anymore. Maybe you wanna just clarify for people, maybe for the newer listeners. What's the difference between the different models that you've put out?" }, { "speaker": "planb", "time": "03:58", "start": 238.18, "text": "Yes. So, the first model I, I published is the stock to flow model, and I, I guess that's where, people know me from. That's, that's, you know, Plan B is stock to flow, et cetera. So, so people are, are, are, are, are mentioning the stock to flow and, and, and are, connecting everything I say to stock to flow, but in fact, I use three kinds of models. And stock to Flow across asset model that, that, that came later, those are what I call fundamental models. They, they try to, yeah, on a f-fundamental level, not on a price level or, or, or based on something else, but, but based on some Fundamental thing, scarcity in this case, say something about the value of Bitcoin. So stock to flow is the, the center, the co-the core of all my modeling, that's, that's true, but there are other models and, For example, the well-known technical, analysis models, which are price driven, they're based on the Bitcoin price only, maybe, maybe some volume data, but, but I don't use that. So, so for example, a, an RSI, a relative strength index would be, a technical indicator or a moving average. So the two hundred week moving average is, is something that, I use a lot and tweet a lot about. And, yeah, my favorite technical analysis, thing is my, my floor model Model that got a lot of attention lately as well because, well, it nailed, three, three of the, the last months, to, to the dot, but, it's, it's a bit, a bit in trouble right now. We'll, we'll probably talk about that later. but that's a, yeah, that's the floor model and, and the third kind of models that I use is, on-chain, models. And, and that's something, yeah, very specific for Bitcoin because Bitcoin has the blockchain So everybody can, yeah, analyze all the transactions that, that, and all the blocks that, that come in every ten minutes and see if it's big, transactions or small transactions, old, wallet selling, new wallet selling, and, and those kind of patterns are very, very interesting. It takes a big computer, it takes a lot of, data analysis, skills to do it, but it's very exciting, and I must say, I spent most of my time, maybe eighty percent of my time in that In that on-chain data analysis, area. so yeah, I, I, I, I'm an investor, I like models, I use all those, three kinds of models, so a stock, a fundamental model, stock to flow for example, the, the technical models and the, and on-chain models. And, yeah, and I think that, that's where a bit of the confusion comes from, sometimes, but, but yeah, that's, that's how it is." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "06:55", "start": 414.9, "text": "I see, yeah. And so I think for people who get confused, they think everything is just stock to flow, where maybe that's, that's not true, right? So because you've got the different kinds of models. And I guess in terms of what is public or out there, it's probably fair to say you've put the most out there about stock to flow modeling, because that's probably what you're known for, that's your claim to fame, so to speak. Yeah. And your floor model obviously has been recently very popular amongst people out there. But I think the on-chain Maybe a little bit more of a private thing you're doing, even though arguably, as you just mentioned, that's eighty percent of your time." }, { "speaker": "planb", "time": "07:31", "start": 450.87, "text": "Yeah, that's right. oh yeah, yeah, those are propri- the things you find in the unchained stuff are so amazing and, and, so useful for, for investing and trading that I'm constantly in a dilemma, should I put it all out there like I did with the stock to flow or should I first use it and see if it's working and, And maybe, yeah, deploy it in the market instead of, publish it. So, yeah, I, I'd like to publish, later on some more about, about the on-chain stuff, but, for now it's, it's, it's pretty, Proprietary entity, indeed." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "08:05", "start": 485.15, "text": "Yeah, and in many cases it's like, as you, if these things were to be published out there, well then maybe everyone would, use it and price it in at that point. And so I guess that's-- and obviously we've all had the con-- that, that conversation about pricing in has been, a big one in years gone by, maybe not as much nowadays. also, I wanted to touch on one of your comments before we get into kind of, are we on track, off track? you That, price discovery on the open market and it, that it reminds you of a prisoner's dilemma. What were you getting at with that comment?" }, { "speaker": "planb", "time": "08:43", "start": 523.01, "text": "Yeah, well, it, it was the, the thought that, you know, in the prisoner's dilemma, the, the prisoners cannot talk to each other and then they have to make a decision, if they make the, if they both say the same thing, They go out free both, but if they, if they say the, the different things, they, they'll sit in jail and, but you don't know what the other is going to say, so, so you're, you're Yeah, sort of forced to, to say, to not trust the other, and, if, if they would, they would both win and go out free, and that's the same in the markets if, the sellers would, be able to communicate to each other and, and, And, and decide not to sell for a, not to sell, to sell at all, or if they must sell for a much higher price, then, the price would instantly go higher. So the, yeah, the fact, the, the, the very act of selling is I, it's influencing the price, and, and, and the fact that you're punching in a low number because, you know, if, if you punch in a, a too high a number, then, then, the trade won't go through and, and you won't sell it. So, so you punch in a low number. But if you, if you would communicate with all the other sellers like, like, okay, right now we're, we're not selling below hundred K, for example, then the price would instantly go to that hundred K But of course, yeah, sellers can't communicate with each other, so they're sort of caught into the going rate and not, not going too far from the, The, the current sell price. But yeah, it, it, the, the fact that you can influence it, that you, that you, if every, the theoretical, situation that if everybody, if every seller would decide, \"I will not sell below a hundred K,\" then the price would be a hundred K instantly. Yeah, yeah, of course." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "10:47", "start": 646.81, "text": "Yeah, of course. And I, I guess at the end of the day, that is a theoretical, obviously, because there'll be some people out there because, you know, some emergency has happened, they have to sell some, et cetera. But as an idea, yeah. And I mean, arguably that could apply on the upside and on the downside, and also I wonder the extent to which- The existence of modeling out there that people are trying to-- it's like a self-fulfilling prophecy that people think, \"Oh, okay, 100K, well, that's quote-unquote fair value,\" or that they're, they're thinking of it in that way. do you believe that any of your modeling is influencing the- Behavior of market participants out there?" }, { "speaker": "planb", "time": "11:29", "start": 689.48, "text": "Nah, it, nah, not really, not really. by now I'm, I'm a pretty large account, but, but not large enough to move markets. I, in fact, I could, I think I had more impact on the markets when markets were, a bit smaller Like, two or two years ago or something. But, no, I-- and I think it's, it's, much more fund-fundamental than just, an opinion or a model that, that someone, that the market follows. I think the, there is, greed and fear in people, that's just human behavior, and that will always be there. So it's very interesting to see that people like to buy Bitcoin when Bitcoin is going up. although prices are of course a lot higher than when, when Bitcoin went down, but when, when Bitcoin goes down, no, nobody wants to buy Bitcoin. so- Yeah, there, there's also, there, there's always greed and fear, and, and you can model that, right? You can, you can model that. And, and also there is, momentum in the markets. That, that's one of the Basic thing in, in, in all markets, also equity markets, bond markets, et cetera, that once a trend starts, there, there is momentum in that it, it goes, goes on and on, and that could be because there's a large buyer, in, in the market that, that can't buy, The exposure they want in, in one day or one week, so they need multiple weeks and months to, to build the exposure. and, and once, yeah, once that, that gets going, then, then it, it, it will continue. And so the momentum is a very real thing in markets, which of course, all the technical analysis is, is based, or a lot of technical analysis is based on. and then the, the really fundamental things for, for, for stocks, modeling, The, cash flows, the dividend flows is, is a very real thing for, for derivatives markets, for, for example, options, which, which is basically a volatility market. Modeling volatility is, is very real and very, yeah, fundamental. It doesn't change" }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "13:42", "start": 822.3, "text": "Yeah, and I think the momentum is a really strong point, and I think, you know, I've mentioned this before, I'm sure many others have, that humans are naturally momentum chasing. So we see the thing going up and we all run in, everyone's running in to buy it, and then we see it going down and then we're overly bearish. And so I think that is probably the most I think that might, might just be one of the best arguments against the supercycle, as it were, happening this time. But I'm curious, I'm sure listeners are curious to get your thoughts. I think you are also anti-- well, not anti, but as in, you think it's not the likely scenario. Do you wanna explain, I guess, how, how are you thinking about this idea of the supercycle, this idea that it's not going to be like a big drawdown or that, you know, it might-- the idea of four-year cycles might be gone? How" }, { "speaker": "planb", "time": "14:32", "start": 872.2, "text": "Yeah, I, I think you're, you're very right that, the, the greed and fear is something that, that, that maybe is the, the best argument against the supercycle, 'cause that won't go away. and, and indeed, I think we will not, have a, we, we, we will not have a supercycle this si- halving cycle, so, next year or, or until, twenty twenty-four before, before next halving, because Because of greed and fear, be-because there will be FOMO, once we hit the hundred thousand, maybe we'll go down a little bit, but, but once we really have crossed that hundred thousand, line, then, then I think the FOMO will set in and, and That people will just buy Bitcoin and Bitcoin will go up to unimaginable levels, but, but then people-- some people will start to sell, they, they, they're sitting on a huge profit and they wanna see some of it, in, in dollars or, they get scared or something happens that, that scares the whole, the whole lot and then, and then we go south again and then that, that will feed on each other, o-on itself, the fear and, and we'll have momentum, to the downside going to the next bottom. I, I think that's, yeah, something in, in markets that is so fundamental that will not go away. That having said, w- The most people that are proponents of the supercycle are, technical people or have some experience in, in investing in tech companies like Google and Amazon And what we've seen in those prices is that there is a lot of volatility in the beginning after the IPO, because there's a lot of uncertainty about, company, succeeding and adoption for the product kicking in. But once the adoption kicks in it goes, it goes up in an almost straight line with some volatility, but not the, the volatility, you see after the IPO. So, so I think a lot of tech investors have that mental picture and they think Bitcoin will do the same thing. I, I don't think that is true." }, { "speaker": "planb", "time": "16:47", "start": 1006.52, "text": "Because I don't think Bitcoin is a company like Google and, and, and Amazon. I think, the, volatility in Bitcoin, which has been very high and still is very high, if you look at option prices, the implied volatility is around hundred percent, so between ninety and a hundred percent, which is huge. That's, that's Yeah, you, you can't see that in any other market. So a lot of risk slash volatility in Bitcoin market, and that is also of course where the, the return is coming from. You can't have a high return without, the volatility. So I think it's something so, so volatility is something that isn't found in, in any o-others markets anymore in the, in, in the same way it, it used to be. So for example, equity markets seems to be going, they, they seem to be going up without any volatility, which is also logical because of an em- all the money printing, same for, real estate prices, up, up, up. But, the volatility has to go somewhere, the risk has to go somewhere, and central banks can't print the risk away, so we're seeing the risk, sort of Coming back in a concentrated way in, in Bitcoin, that's how, how I see it, and that's why we have this, this, yeah, extremely high returns as well, if you can stomach this volatility, yeah, you can reap the profits of the, What is it, to, to a hundred percent, returns almost, on average, for Bitcoin annually? So yeah, I, I think the supercycle is very interesting con-concept, but it's, yeah, the, the greed and fear stance, in, in between. And what I do see, by the way, is that, once Bitcoin, hits a stock to flow, a s-a scarcity level of Of, yeah, higher than, than anything else on the planet, higher than, than, real estate with a stock to floor ratio of 100. once we hit that and, and Bitcoin becomes the most scarce asset in the, on, on the planet I think that could be the moment when hyperbitcoinization or the supercycle will kick in in, in a way that, yeah, it's, it's so much better than real estate and gold and, and, and all the other assets that, that everybody w-will buy it and, and it will probably be the de facto money at that time, So, so, so we're probably, if you look at the, for example, the stock to flow model at the moment, it, it uses Bitcoin prices, expressed in dollars, 'cause dollar is the, world re-reserve currency, everything is expressed in dollars. But once Bitcoin hit that, hits, that, that, that hundred, stock to flow ratio of hundred And, and becomes the best money, in fact, in the world, I guess, it's time to price everything in Bitcoin and, and the role of the dollar will Will, will, will be less at that time, but, but that, that's after the next halving and probably not before twenty twenty-five, twenty-six or something, but I could see a Hyperbitcoinization in that sense, a, a supercycle in that sense, that Bitcoin becomes the de facto money and the denominator of all things valuable, I could see that," }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "20:21", "start": 1221.03, "text": "but later on Yeah, I see. So you see it more like, not this cycle, but potentially next. But then what about this idea that maybe four-year cycles are gone, and actually we might still have cycles up and down, but just not four-year ones? That, I guess, now to spell out or flesh out that argument, it might be that, okay, the number of new coins coming in now isn't that big of a deal, and it's actually more about what the OG or older hodlers or longer time hodlers are doing with their stack than it is It is about the incoming new coins that are coming in as part of the block subsidy every ten minutes. What's your view on that?" }, { "speaker": "planb", "time": "21:01", "start": 1260.84, "text": "Yeah, I, I don't agree with that view. I, I think that's the-- I, I understand the view as in, and, and, and most technical people are having that view, and, and indeed the, The, amount of, of new bitcoins or the percentage of new bitcoins is, is getting less and less and less of a factor in the market, but I, I don't think that is the, you have to look at it from the other way, and that's also- in line with stock to flow view of things, that you have to view it like an investor, and an investor has, alternative investments, gold, real estate, equities, et cetera, and Bitcoin, and the fact that when Bitcoin halts, it's, it's the, the stock to flow ratio will double, and it will put Bitcoin Well, next to, next to real estate, by then, and, and, and next to gold by now. So people are really comparing it to gold right now because it's as scarce and, as gold. That's, that's how I view it. So you, the fact that it's only a cup, yeah, very little new bitcoins coming in the market and less and less, by the way, every halving, and that the impact, for example, of exchanges selling their, their fees is bigger than that or miners, not even Even selling, but, but, being fully funded through, their shareholders and not, not, not having to sell their coins for elect-electricity costs. Th-those are all, yeah, maybe bigger factors in the market. But I look at it from the other way, so from the investor way, they're, they're just counting for scarce, assets, and right now Bitcoin is comparable to gold, and it will be comparable to real estate, and that will, that will be a big change in the eye of the investor." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "22:49", "start": 1368.68, "text": "Back to the show in a moment. Now, if you're looking to start self-custodying your Bitcoin or you wanna upgrade your Bitcoin hardware, look at the Coldcard by CoinKite dot com. 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So if you're interested to find out more, go to brains dot com, that's brains with two eyes. As the The price of Bitcoin goes up, it's time to think about security, and with Unchained Capital, you can create a multi-signature vault. So with Bitcoin security, we want to remove single points of failure, and this can be an exchange, it could be a single hardware wallet that you haven't backed up. There's all sorts of ways that we could fail in our security, and with Unchained Capital, you can create a vault, a two or three vault, where you hold two keys separately and put them in different locations, and Unchained holds the third key, and they can counters If you need that. Now, you can actually set this up and create the vault for free. There will be a fee if Unchained have to countersign for you. Now, if you need assistance, there's a concierge onboarding program where they will ship you hardware wallets and teach you how to do this, even if you've never held your keys before. So if that's appealing to you, go to unchained dot com, select the concierge onboarding program, use the code Livera for a discount there. Now, back to the show with Plan B. So I guess historically, if we were to look at it, there were times where there was essentially a multi-year bear cycle. So 2014 and 15 and part of 2016, and then obviously 2017 was a big run up, and then you could, you could arguably say 2018 and maybe 2019 and 2020 was sort of like a bear-ish years, and then obviously this year, 2021 has been a huge, big bull run, and I, I guess the end of" }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "26:14", "start": 1573.63, "text": "If we were to see, like, are you essentially arguing then that we could see a similar thing happen, that we may see a, a huge, huge momentum come in, and then again, the cycle turns at some point and we have potentially a multi-year bear again before the next bull run?" }, { "speaker": "planb", "time": "26:32", "start": 1591.95, "text": "Yes. and I don't know if it's multi, multiple year, it could-- all the bulls and bear markets are different always, they're never exactly the same. But yeah, I think we, we go up, yeah, the, the bull run, run isn't, finished yet. And, I will go, beyond the hundred K level towards, I mean, two hundred, three hundred, you know? And, and, in, in last bull markets, the, The, the, the, the Bitcoin price went up, two x or three x or, or sometimes even more above the stock to flow levels. So, yeah, we could, we could see three hundred k Bitcoin, that, that, that wouldn't surprise me. But after, after the next all time high, we will, fear will kick in and we will see lower Bitcoin price, and I, I guess that will lead to there, there will be a trigger that, that triggers that fear and that downward movement, and there could be, a government thing, it's mostly a government thing, there could be, it could be anything, but Yeah, I didn't, I wouldn't be surprised, but it could also be just a very short, bear market this time, only half a year or one year, it, it, it doesn't have to be multiple year, but yeah, it could be It could be that twenty twenty-two is a, a bull year, twenty-twenty-- I'm sorry, twenty twenty-two is a bull year, so next year, another, another bull run. twenty twenty-three is a bear market, twenty twenty-four is, will stay in the bear market, and twenty twenty-five will go up again. That I wouldn't surprise, be surprised to see that happening like that." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "28:12", "start": 1692.25, "text": "I see, yeah. And so the way I'm, I'm seeing it or thinking about it is that, so as we were saying, this whole momentum chasing idea that Up, there's all these people who are chasing the, you know, they're seeing the number go up and they haven't really studied this thing. And then eventually, as it turns, we fall to the level of the, quote unquote, DCA army or the Bitcoin Savings Plan, that sort of is the level who are holding the support. So I guess maybe that's where the, maybe the supercycle people are saying essentially that there's gonna be such a phase shift or such a step change in the way people think about Bitcoin that there will just be all these new people who are accumulating Bitcoin. And And therefore, that's why this kind of idea that the supercycle is gonna happen, and therefore it, it won't be a huge, huge drawdowns coming, because it'll just be steady continual adoption. So I'm wondering your reaction on that." }, { "speaker": "planb", "time": "29:04", "start": 1744.19, "text": "Yeah, I, I hope that were true, but, that's how it felt last, last two, bull markets as well. Like, oh, this time it's different and, and we won't go down anymore. And, and that's why you have to protect, I think, you have to protect yourself against that feeling, 'cause I know how that feels. you think it will go to a million straight up, but, Yeah, but I like the, your argument, it's the, the DCA army or the, the, the, the hodlers, the army of hodlers that's constantly adding and not selling. you could, for example, see the two hundred week moving average, that's a four year moving average, That go, that's, an indicator, technical indicator that, that sort of, yeah, measures the, the average price of the last four years. And, and that, that measure goes up it go-always goes up, it never goes down, and, and Bitcoin, monthly closes never fall below that two hundred-week moving average line, so it's a very interesting indicator, And, and I guess that's indeed the, that, that's how I long term would, would see Bitcoin. it always goes up and, and there's some, a, a lot of volatility above that two hundred-week moving average, which you should ignore And, and, and it goes up, in, in the long term, it all goes up, but it, it, it already did that, right, last, last ten years, and I think next ten years, yeah, could, could be like that, not necessarily an a- an acceleration of that two hundred week moving average, so th- which would be the case in the, if there was a supercycle." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "30:48", "start": 1848.02, "text": "So I wanted to turn now to the question of evaluation of these models, because I think there's a lot of back and forth. People are saying, there's some people out there who are saying, \"No, it's S2F modeling is dead,\" and there are others who say, \"No, it's still on track.\" How do you think about that? How do you think the model should be assessed? And I remember, one of our earlier conversations, you were saying, put in short terms, in simple terms, if Bitcoin is not over a hundred K by the end of That you would then say, okay, that model is probably failed. Are you, do you still hold that view or has your view shifted here?" }, { "speaker": "planb", "time": "31:26", "start": 1886.09, "text": "Yeah, and that, and that's a bit of a short, A measure, a bit of a simple measure, but yeah, I, I still hold that view. I think stock to flow is tracking very well since it was published in, March 2019. when Bitcoin was, below, four thousand. So it's, yeah, it, it tracked really well, and it, it mainly predicted that the, the halving would trigger another, was not priced in and would trigger another bull run, which we saw. we're now sitting at, well, a bit below sixty, what is it? Fifty-seven or something, thousand. So, if you look at the charts, for example, this, bot of Bitchdeen, which can be found on Twitter, it's a stock to flow multiple called S2F multiple, and it tracks the, performance of the model, on a daily basis, and you can, you can see that it tracks very well, Within, most of the time within a one standard deviation band and, and, and it went a little below the one standard deviation, band into the two standard deviations band, lately, but, but came, came back up from there and we're now smack back in the, in the one standard deviation band. So, and, and going towards hundred K. So yeah, I, I think it tracked, well, as, as advertised, And I'm very, yeah, even I, I, I am a bit amazed by that, 'cause the model shouldn't work at all, in fact, right? The efficient market hypothesis, you, you can't model the market but, but I think the, the proof of the pudding, the real, well, victory lap or how do you call that, is, is when we, we cross that hundred K, barrier. I guess that's the The thing, and I, I guess it's good to explain that, that, that when, when you read the article, when you see how the model is made, it's just a normal regression, analysis. It's, it's nothing spectacular, nothing exotic, it's very, very simple, one input variable, but what it basically says is After the, the twenty twenty halving, the price level should be on average for that, that halving period, so until twenty twenty four, should on average be a hundred thousand dollars. so that, that is the real, proof or validation, if you will, if, if, if we track, if, if, if the data still fits that very simple linear regression, then it's all okay. but since technical analysis, people- Somehow don't, don't really understand the average, linear regression thing and are really, used to thinking levels and price targets I'd, yeah, shouldn't say dumb that down, but I, I simplified that into, yeah, well, if, if, if it should, if, if it, should be hundred K on average, then, well, one and a half year into the halving cycle, so one and a half year after the last, halving, it should at least cross that average of hundred K, 'cause otherwise it will be very difficult to be hundred K on average, we should spend a lot of time above hundred K to even make that average. So yeah, it, at some point we should cross that line, and I guess historically looking to, last two bull runs, two thousand and seventeen and two thousand eight, thirteen that point is, well, about one and a half years after the halving, so that's how I came up with, end of two thousand twenty-one, it should be above hundred K, which is very short and snappy, and, And, and technical analysis people understand it. So, so it's, it's not, so, so it's really the average that we should be looking at, but the hundred K is, well, short and, and, and, and simple." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "35:41", "start": 2140.56, "text": "I see. So just to summarize then, the idea is, let's say we're looking at the stock to flow model, the idea then is that the price of Bitcoin should be We can sort of say oscillating around a hundred K, just as an example. And so the simplified version that you gave was that the price should at least cross a hundred K by the end of this year, and you said that, I think, last year. And so- You're also thinking of that as like a average over the cycle. So another, I guess, important thing to note is that Bitcoin can really move a lot in a short period of time. So it could very well spend most of the year well under a hundred K and then just at the end, run really high. Or I guess the other aspect would be if the model, or let's say, if the price of Bitcoin goes, you know, well over a hundred K Next year, then it can spend also a lot of the time above a hundred K. So, I'm curious then, are you-- is that how you're seeing it? Are you just essentially seeing it like there could just be really big price moves towards the end of this year or start of next year?" }, { "speaker": "planb", "time": "36:48", "start": 2207.93, "text": "Yeah. Well, if you go for the supercycle, it could be like that, right? We could be below hundred K and then, maybe a half next year, go to, to a million and spend and, a-and beyond and then still hit that hundred K average, But I don't-- if theoretically that could be, but that's, that's not what I expect, But yeah, it, it-- so basically you can only say, until next halving, really? Well, but, i-if the model is, is that, if the hundred K average is, is, is reached, but, yeah, I think, I, I think on average that should be, and, and there's another argument by the way against that, We spend, for example, three years below hundred K and the last year far above a hundred K, maybe, maybe at a million or something. And that is the fact that if you look at a stock to flow model, I f- and I find that very Important, it then the Bitcoin price is above and below the model value each and every year. So it really oscillates, like you call that, around that That, that model line, it really stays close to the model line, and that's a very important thing. And, you know, there was a whole co-integration discus-discussion when the model came out in 2019, which is very interesting, and that sort of hit on that, on that The fact that the Bitcoin price stays very close to the model and there were also some sorts of, formal tests for that co-possible co-integration, which in the end we couldn't, we couldn't apply because stock to flow isn't a random variable, but, but it's a very, very important thing nevertheless, that, in my opinion. That the price of Bitcoin goes i-is below and above the model line each and every year last ten years." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "38:41", "start": 2320.77, "text": "Yeah, right. So in your point of view, that's not-- that shouldn't be seen as like a coincidental thing or, not, not relevant. In fact, for you, in your, in your mind, that's quite an important point. No. Just, yeah." }, { "speaker": "planb", "time": "38:54", "start": 2334.4, "text": "Yeah. Yeah. And, and it means that, that we, we shouldn't stay below a hundred K, for example, next Next year, and then shoot up to a million in two thousand twenty-three, and make that, and still make that, that, that average of, a hundred K, because we should-- We, yeah, well, we should go above a hundred this year, but at lea- we must, if we don't go above a hundred K next year, then, then for sure, the model, failed. Yeah. In my eyes. I" }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "39:22", "start": 2362.04, "text": "see. and so- There's been a lot of talk around, you know, Kaga, right, Compound annual growth rate, and so the, that two hundred number gets thrown around, and as, as we speak today, as an example, the, the ten year version of that number, it's about a hundred and seventy percent, although of course, I, you know, I think it's only fair to say that that should taper down over time, and it's not, maybe it's not fair to say it's gonna be two hundred percent every year going forward, 'cause it's just not gonna sustain that" }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "39:55", "start": 2395.31, "text": "Something in that sixty to seventy percent range is what we might realistically see for the next coming years, and then it will taper down over time, and then eventually the model has to fail, as, as, you know, I think you've mentioned as well. What's your thought on that idea, like this idea that it has to taper down and that eventually the model has fa-would have to fail?" }, { "speaker": "planb", "time": "40:14", "start": 2413.94, "text": "Yeah." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "40:15", "start": 2414.6, "text": "What, what, what, and how would you know?" }, { "speaker": "planb", "time": "40:18", "start": 2417.86, "text": "Well, th-those are two points. so first, the f- indeed, it's, it's, the annual rate, if you look at the, the last ten years of Bitcoin, is, is a hundred and seventy percent, growth or, or profit, and, and that is high, of course, and it's a lot higher than, than you would expect from the, for example, capital asset pricing model. That's a Nobel Prize-winning, model that, despite all its critics, is, is still used a lot, in, risk and return, point of view. So given, the risk of some asset, the volatility of some asset, there should be a return that, that, that sort of ma-makes up for that risk. And, the risk of Bitcoin is high, but the return is much higher. And, you know, the, well, I mentioned the, the risk, the volatility of Bitcoin is, if you look at option prices, employed volatility, it's, it's about a hundred percent, but the return is a hundred and seventy percent. So the return is higher than To see in the market. So, so all other assets, bonds, gold, equities, real estate, all other assets have, returns that are lower than the volatility and, or the drawdown, depending how you measure risk, but, and that's a very distinct thing from, from, from Bitcoin. That's, it, technically it means the Sharpe ratio is higher than one. So the, the Sharpe ratio is the return divided by the, volatility, the, the, the risk. So it's, 100 Seventy divided by hundred for, for Bitcoin, and, and that is very distinct, and I don't know if that will fall actually. I think the current central bank policies and the weird stuff we're seeing with the money printing, and even negative interest rates in the part of the world where I live, is, yeah, putting financial markets upside down and making price discovery almost impossible. And, and you can't kill risk. You can't-- It, it seems like- No company is allowed to go bust, defaults are, are, are not allowed, 'cause the central bank will come in and save the bank or save the, airliners or whatever, and, and, and the same we're seeing right now with the whole COVID, the, people aren't allowed to die, and we're, yeah, doing everything to, even the most stupid things to, to prevent it. But the thing I'm, I'm, I'm getting at is that that risk isn't going away because, because, The, the government say it's going away, that risk, especially in financial markets, just goes somewhere else. And I have the feeling that Bitcoin is the new frontier, the, last place in the world, if you will, where risk and, and return can be truly, present and, and, and, and Yeah, where, where true price discovery can, can take place. And that's a very fundamental thing, very, very, yeah, new, new way of looking. But so the whole question then boils down to risk, is, is risk, going to, go away for Bitcoin? Because if that is the case, yeah, yeah, well then the returns will come down gradually from hundred seventy percent to hundred to maybe sixty, which would be in line with other assets. But I don't know about that That's, that's not what I see at the moment. it could also be that the very distinct exponential trends and the non-normal, distribution of returns of Bitcoin, very, very much following power law, distributions, that that characteristic stays for Bitcoin" }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "43:58", "start": 2637.5, "text": "I'm also curious to ask around Bitcoin and how it fares during a crash. So as an example, people might say during March 2020, everyone was trying to go to USD cash, right? So that's where basically a lot of things all went down, and obviously Bitcoin at that time, I think it was maybe nine or ten thousand, and it crashed to maybe three or four thousand, something roughly like that. and so the argument might be, now again, I'm obviously, more orange-pilled and Bitcoin-huddling myself, but hypothetically, people might argue, \"Look, people have US dollar-denominated debts or obligations they need to make rent or payroll or various other obligations, and that's in USD, so that's why there's this big sell-down.\" And so I guess that's the question that people might be thinking is, \"During a big crash, during a big financial crisis?\" Could that also happen to Bitcoin? Or do you actually believe, and maybe that's like the bull argument, that people are eventually going to see more safety in SAT than they do in the US dollar? What's your reflection, thought, thought on that?" }, { "speaker": "planb", "time": "45:06", "start": 2706.39, "text": "Yeah, that, that would be nice. It, it-- but indeed, twenty, March twenty twenty, the COVID, crisis, everything went down, right? The bond market, the equity markets, the, and even Bitcoin went, went down with. So people have to sell Everything because they, they lose their job or their company is in ba-bad, bad shape, they need money and indeed they need the money in, in dollars or, or, or other fiat and they need to sell their assets. So I g- I guess, yeah. That sort of stays. On the other hand, like you say, personally, when I, when I sell Bitcoin, then I have this, this cash on, on my bank balance sheet, on my, on my bank, and, yeah, it feels like more risky than having it in Bitcoin, 'cause, yeah, the, the, the inflation is eating the, purchasing power, of my euros away. The banks can, can block the account, freeze the account, can do everything with the account. It's, yeah, it's much better feeling to, to have it in Bitcoin and going up all the time. Instead of, having it in fiat. So, so I'm personally selling only what I need for, for, for food and, and, and stuff, but, but not more than that. So I, yeah, I could see But, but the, the counter argument of course is that if you keep it in, in Bitcoin, you should be okay and at ease with all the volatility in fiat terms, of your stash, right? That's- you should be okay to see it, half, in, in, in, in, in dollar terms, and, l-like we saw in, May and June when the Chinese ban, was there. and if that's okay, then, then Because you know that it, it, it, on average, it, it will, jump back again and, and average there will be this hundred seventy percent, growth rate annually, then, this is the most perfect, investment there is. So yeah, I'm, I'm also very hardcore in that I'm okay with the volatility and, and, and keep it in Bitcoin rather than turning it to cash. But, but in these very distinct crisis situations like March 2020, some people don't have a choice, they have to sell and, and, and of course, leverage is playing a part here as well. So, The one of the reasons that there was a big sell off in Bitcoin, a very steep sell off by the way in Bitcoin in March 2020, was because of all the leverage, because of all the leverage longs that were killed and liquidated, and those people have their stop losses put in, see the price go against them, go, go down, and they don't wanna sell, 'cause they hope, they, they know it will go back up again, but the exchange will sell it for them. They will be liquidated by the exchange. And, Yeah, there, there's so much leverage in Bitcoin, which I think is very stupid, for people to do, to, to do naked, naked, longs or, or shorts, without having the underlying." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "48:22", "start": 2902.03, "text": "So I think-" }, { "speaker": "planb", "time": "48:23", "start": 2902.89, "text": "Yeah, that example, that," }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "48:25", "start": 2905.25, "text": "yeah, yeah, that makes it worse. I think coming back to what we were saying earlier around momentum and how people are thinking when they're in the euphoria phase of the bull run, that's when a lot of people are levered up, and so that's typically when, you know, you Big, big deleveraging moments where the price comes down a lot. And so at least historically, the way it sort of moves, it's almost like a two steps forward, one step back dance. And so it kind of comes up a bit and then back, and then comes up again and back. And so, but eventually, that dance is over and it's the end of the, it's the end of that kind of, overarching cycle. And so at that time, and to use an example of twenty seventeen, the twenty K was the top, right? But what happened is after that Say fourteen K or whatever, people were still wondering, \"Well, hang on, are we gonna do another two steps up? Or is that it for this, you know, round?\" And it took some time for them to know, \"Oh, yeah, actually, we are done for this time, and we're gonna have to wait until the next big overall cycle.\" But i-in the minds of people out there, they might still be confused because you're not clear whether that was the top or whether we're still about to go back up again." }, { "speaker": "planb", "time": "49:34", "start": 2973.84, "text": "Yeah. And it's always interesting, to go in March 2020, did you, were you close to selling or did, did, did, didn't you feel anything? Were you trying to stack hard, switch off the monitor and go sailing or running? Yeah, yeah. And that's by the way why I say when the price goes down, I just switch off the monitors. I, I, I do a tweet like I'm sailing or I'm running, 'cause that's, that's really what I'm doing then. I'm just, I'm just go, switch off the monitors and go away from the Into nature to, to, to not have to look at, yeah. 'Cause, 'cause you might, you might be overcome by fear and sell, and, and you have to protect yourself against that if, if, if you have the confidence and, and opportunity of course to sit it" }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "50:22", "start": 3021.62, "text": "out. Yeah. And so This whole conversation around macro and Bitcoin and broader conversations around nation states and their adoption of Bitcoin or their response to Bitcoin, I'm curious around your thoughts there. Do you see this like there will be nation state level mining or do you think it makes more sense for them to simply accumulate without mining and either purchase or even print and purchase? What kind of adoption? Do you see making sense for nation states?" }, { "speaker": "planb", "time": "50:58", "start": 3057.57, "text": "Yeah, I, I think they'll have the same, decision to make that all of us have made individually, earlier on, and that investors have to do, and, and, and institutional investors have to do right now, to be-- to buy Bitcoin now would mean you're, you're one of the first people or, or countries to do it, like El Salvador did, and they get all the, the, the flak for it and also all the compliments But from the traditional world, and, and the IMF for example, they get the flag. So, so, yeah, it's, it's a first mover advantage, but it's also, a first mover who gets all the critics. So, yeah, you have to have balls, you have to have, probably, have to have a small comp- country with a, a leader that can, that can do, such a change, such a big change. And, and, but I guess it makes a lot of sense, right? It makes The alternative is to be, rescued by the IMF continuously, and eternally, for, for smaller companies, but also, yeah, for, for the bigger companies. The central banks play such a large role at the moment. They, they save all the banks. In, in two thousand eight, they saved all the companies after COVID, March twenty twenty. It seems that, that even the very big countries like US and, and all the countries in Europe cannot operate without the, The money printing of the central bank. So yeah, it's either that or, or hatch a little bit in, in, into hard assets like, like Bitcoin or gold or, well, I find it very interesting what the Chinese are doing at the moment. So they're buying, they, they, they of course have a lot of the US debt, the, a lot of the US treasuries, and if, if something were to happen with the US dollar, as in high hyperinflation or, a debt rescheduling, then of course- Of course, the Chinese treasuries would be hit, and what you see is the Chinese are buying a lot of stuff in real stuff, right? The gold mines in Africa, cobalt mines, all the commodity mines in Africa, all the, strategic important, infrastructure like harbors in the Middle East and, Europe And even in, in the US. So it's, it's very interesting to see the, the Chinese government buy real stuff, hard assets, and of course, the hardest asset in my view would be, Bitcoin, Because it's, it's, it's better than gold, scarcer than gold in, in a few years and, and more portable, more divisible, etc. It's, it's thermodynamically the best thing there is, and, and some governments will figure that out, like El Salvador. Which is of course small country, but I guess that will, that will see some, some, some other countries following that up, and then it becomes easier and easier for other countries to adopt, 'cause they're not the first mover anymore. But, I'm quite sure some countries are in that-- are analyzing it now and are, are making plans to, to add or to add Bitcoin to the reserves or switch to legal tender, which, which El Salvador did. which is very ballsy move, but, but yeah, it, it, I think it, it brings great, great, wealth to, to a country. And, but it is high risk. And" }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "54:24", "start": 3263.9, "text": "speaking of El Salvador, so they have made Bitcoin legal tender, and you, I'm sure you've seen the recent announcement about Bitcoin City and the use of a- Specially structured bond that will actually be giving out Bitcoin dividend. So I'm curious if you've had a chance to look at that Bitcoin City idea and Bitcoin bonds, and whether you have any reactions to it or any analysis you've looked at." }, { "speaker": "planb", "time": "54:53", "start": 3292.59, "text": "Yeah, I, I didn't look at the city bond as much, but I did look at the volcano bond. Maybe that's the same thing, but, the mining, I, I think they are one and the same. okay, okay. So yeah, the, the mining bonds are very interesting, and it's, of course, mining is a very profitable thing, and, and, and giving notes or, or, bonds, on that operation is, is a very, a, a, yeah, a very logical thing to do with," }, { "speaker": "planb", "time": "55:22", "start": 3322.11, "text": "The nodes, the, the blockchain mining nodes, where you can participate in an otherwise, very capital intensive, a very, very large capital investment, you can now Buy small parts of that, of that investment and still earn, earn that, that, quite huge, returns. So yeah, no, I, I think that's a very logical, very nice thing to do and a, a method of making it ac-accessible to, traditional investors, because bonds and notes are- They have ICN numbers, they're, they can be put in the, investment administration sys-systems, just like a normal bond and, or, or, or, shares. And it's, yeah, it's a very, very smart thing to do. I think we'll see a lot more of that." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "56:06", "start": 3366.38, "text": "Yeah. Yeah, to your point about, easy coding and putting into the system, it's crazy how much inertia there is. I, I recall at the announcement President Bicella and Sampson Mao of Blockstream were saying it would be, the code would be EBB1, right? And that was the, El Salvador Bitcoin Bond 1, and that, I think that'd be the first of, a range of, of these to come. So it, it might just be that it makes it accessible to people who are otherwise stuck in investing in the more traditional world, and potentially even for the retail investors, there might be a reason for them if they are getting, permanent- Residency in El Salvador with the track to citizenship, but I, I guess that is the question for some people, because for many people it might just be like, \"Well, I could just be holding Bitcoin, why do I wanna hold this?\" And so I guess they would have to think about why they would wanna do that, and in some cases it might be access, in some cases it might be they want the permanent residency, it might be they want to, retain some exposure to Bitcoin as opposed to, buying. property or they, they might want some level of Bitcoin exposure. So I guess those are some ideas that I'm thinking of. Do you have any, anything to add there or do you, agree? Yeah, yeah, no," }, { "speaker": "planb", "time": "57:24", "start": 3443.96, "text": "I, I agree. And, and of course, the, the bonds and the, and the mining nodes, th-th-those have very different risk profiles than Bitcoin. They don't drop fifty percent, in, in, in a week, for example, like Bitcoin. So the return would be a little bit less, but the risk is, is much less than Bitcoin and, but still, and, and especially for traditional investors that, that are a bit scared of the volatility of Bitcoin, which, which is logical. I mean, hundred percent volatility is, is just too much for, for all banks and insurance, companies. But, yeah, so the, the, the risk, risk return profile is, is different than Bitcoin, so it makes a nice, very nice addition to, to To, to, to Bitcoin the asset." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "58:10", "start": 3489.67, "text": "I see, yeah. So in my mind, I'm sort of thinking of that tension or the clash, because I'm sure some listeners are like, \"Screw that, why are you, why are you talking about mining Bitcoin mining stocks or Bitcoin mining notes and Bitcoin bonds, like just hold Bitcoin.\" But then on the other hand, it's- The right tool for the job or for the right person, right? So of course, the retail highly convicted stacker and hodler is thinking, \"No, I just wanna hold Sats, I just wanna hold Bitcoin.\" But then maybe some of the institutional investors or other people who are thinking, \"Well, you know,\" as an example, they might be buying MicroStrategy because they want Bitcoin exposure and it's easy for them, or they might be buying Grayscale, or they might be, you know, doing the GBTc thing, or they might be looking at ways to get exposure by holding the By holding the mining node, or in this case, the Bitcoin bond, because they're not at the level yet of being able to sustain or take that volatility of just simply holding Bitcoin. So I guess that's maybe an exploration for the different kinds of people and the different kinds of reasons that people would, yeah, buy these different things." }, { "speaker": "planb", "time": "59:13", "start": 3553.37, "text": "Yeah, yeah. And, and, and of course, we have fallen in love with Bitcoin, and, and Bitcoin is so much more than an asset. It's a way of living. It's, it's a culture. It's, it's, yeah And a new, new geopolitical thing, it, it's much more than-- but an investor, of course, a traditional investor, he's very, and, yeah. A, a, a, a, a big institutional investor, he doesn't mind what, what he's investing is. He, he looks at all the investments at the same Through the same scope and that, that is risk return. So if it's better in risk re-tu-return terms and within his mandate, which Bitcoin isn't at the moment, but then, then it's okay. If it's better, they, they go there. If it's, yeah, they, they'll, they'll add it to the, to the portfolio and, but they will never fall in love with Bitcoin like, like we do." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "01:00:03", "start": 3603.68, "text": "No, I see. And I guess a similar kind of idea is other vehicles of investing, so there might be other people who are more comfortable with the likes of an ETF. So Of course, while that might not be appropriate for those individuals who want direct exposure, I'm curious your thoughts there. Do the ETFs represent some kind of centralization risk to Bitcoin if, let's say, all the coins end up in the hands of one big ETF custodian, or are you looking at it maybe, maybe another way to look at it is it's just inevitable, it was coming anyway, and so it's time to, like, it, it will just exist alongside the- Let's call it the more open peer-to-peer Bitcoin world." }, { "speaker": "planb", "time": "01:00:49", "start": 3649.11, "text": "Yeah, it's less peer-to-peer, but I don't see the concentration risk as a big problem or, or, I see it as a big opportunity, a logical thing. you know, a lot of people, especially through pension funds and, and normal investment schemes, can't buy Bitcoin because the, the asset manager can't hold the Bitcoin, th-there systems aren't adapted to, to, private keys and/or don't have links to custodian services. So, but, but they c- they can of course buy futures and, in, in, in, in gold, in everything, and also in Bitcoin. So it's very easy way of acquiring some Bitcoin, exposure for traditional investors and And, and that's no problem at all. Also, also not if it's just a future E, ETF. It's, it, it just means that, that there is a counterpart that takes the first, ten, twenty percent annually for, as a reward for having the spot exposure and, and going through the trouble of, of, of, having the keys in the ca-ca-custodian, services right. but, but the traditional investors and the E, the, the future ETFs are willing to give that ten percent And twenty percent contango premium up and, go for the other, well, hundred and seventy minus minus ten is a hundred and sixty percent, which is still a good deal and fits within their systems and, and legal framework. So no, I think it's Just a normal, yeah, situation how things should go." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "01:02:20", "start": 3740.29, "text": "Right. Yeah. So I guess just to summarize some of the other points we were talking about earlier. As we were saying, around the hundred K by the end of the year. So essentially with stock to flow model, essentially the simple way was hitting a hundred K before the end of the year, but the other way could just be, sustaining a number well above a hundred K for, let's say, the next Two years after the end of this year, something like that. and then in terms of the floor model, I think you got, was it two or three months in a row pretty much on the number, but it might be a bit difficult. As we record this, we are the twenty, it's the 25th of November, and the price is about fifty-seven K, I believe. I can't recall off the top of my head, but I believe your stock, your floor model had it something like ninety-eight K, meaning we've got about thirty K to go in, what is it, seven days or something, six, seven days?" }, { "speaker": "planb", "time": "01:03:15", "start": 3795.98, "text": "Yeah, I, I, I won't say we're still in play. I guess it's pretty, yeah, almost impossible to reach that goal. So I guess that will be your first miss, after those three hits, which, which doesn't impact the stock to floor model, but it is going on because, this hasn't happened in the last ten years. The, the floor model is, is a technical model, like I said, bu-based on price, of the last ten years. And this is just an extrapolation of that, and the fact that it didn't hit the ninety-eight is, in my view, yeah, i-i-an outlier, a black swan event. I don't know why, by the way, I have no idea why the price, went down, last couple of, weeks. Could be the Mount Gox, thing, could be just technical, a technical issue, so, a consolidation after a big rise, It could be anything, but I, I, I couldn't point exactly what it is. But it, it, it, my eyes, it's, it's an outlier. So in fact, I keep the hundred and thirty-five K, prediction that the floor model gave for December. I keep that, I still keep that, up and I ex-expect this as a, the, the hit or the fail, sorry, of the ninety-eight, if If, if we fail to hit ninety-eight in five days, probably will. But I see that as an outlier and probably a V-shaped recovery after that, and then if, if that doesn't happen, so if we also miss the December, yeah, then the floor model is, Out of the window and, and broken. But, but a, a model, I think that's a good point to make, a model isn't broken by the first miss. So, a model isn't ever 100% right. It, it can't be, 'cause it wouldn't be a model, a simplification of, reality. So there will be misses. This is a miss, it's a big miss, but it should be a one-off. If it keeps missing, if it's, if it's not continuing, it's, Nailing the other month's, track level, track record, sorry. Then, yeah, then, then it's, it's not okay, but missing one month is, is, is not a problem for me at least." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "01:05:38", "start": 3938.78, "text": "I see. And, you know, it could be that in the next five days we see a bit of a run up, so it's not as much of a miss. Who, who knows, right? So I guess, that's probably a good spot to finish up. Any closing thoughts that you wanted to leave the listeners with, Plan" }, { "speaker": "planb", "time": "01:05:53", "start": 3953.93, "text": "no, well, I, I, I have got a lot of new followers lately, it's, it's about, four hundred thousand, last month and the month before that, so it's, it's really a, a large number of new followers. I would urge those followers to read my articles, the original old articles from two thousand, nineteen, two thousand, two thousand twenty, because a lot of the questions that I get are, are all answered in those, in those Papers and, and of course, there's a lot of interviews that I did, going into depth, to, for, for all the questions that, that are, are asked, currently, and all the- Previous podcasts and, and interviews are on my website, planbtc dot com, the articles are there as well. So especially for the new followers, go to that website, planbtc dot com, and you'll find, and, and, and make sure you read the articles and listen to one or two of the latest, interviews. That, that would, yeah, that would certainly" }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "01:06:59", "start": 4019.09, "text": "give a lot of insight. Fantastic. Well, pleasure chatting with you, and, thank you for joining me, Plan B. Thank you, Stefan. I hope you enjoyed the show. Make sure you subscribe using your Podcatcher application, search Stefan Livera podcast, and the show notes are over at stefanlivera dot com. Thanks for listening, and I'll see you in the citadels." } ] }