{ "episodeId": "SLP397", "speakers": { "stephan": { "name": "Stephan Livera", "role": "host", "tag": "STEPHAN" }, "stack_hodler": { "name": "Stack Hodler", "role": "guest", "tag": "STACK" } }, "segments": [ { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "00:09", "start": 8.51, "text": "Hi, you're listening to Stephan Livera podcast, a show about Bitcoin and Austrian economics. Today for episode three hundred and ninety-seven, I'm chatting with Stack Hodler, and we spoke about money printing around the world, what's happening with fiat currencies, the USD, JPY and the Japanese bond market, why you shouldn't get on zero credit cycles, mortgage boycotts, as well as what's going on with With BRICS. Now, this show is brought to you by Swan Bitcoin. I work at Swan Bitcoin, and we are putting on a conference. It's called Pacific Bitcoin. So go to pacificbitcoin dot com. You can check out the speaker list there. There's so many well-known people in the Bitcoin world, people like Jeff Booth, Pierre Rochard, Lynn Alden, Guy Swan, Mark Moss, Alex Gladstein, and many more. I'll be one of the hosts as well. This will be a part of LA Bitcoin Week. So it's gonna be in November 10th and Opportunities to connect and network and meet like-minded people. I think this will be a fantastic opportunity for anyone who's interested to learn more about Bitcoin or maybe you wanna bring your friends along so they can get involved and learn about it too. So that website is specificbitcoin dot com and as usual for SLP listeners, the code Livera gets you a discount. For those of you involved or interested in the world of Bitcoin mining, brains dot com is the website for you. They have a range of educational Bitcoin mining content as well as profitability calculators that you can find over there. On their Insights dashboard, and their product also is the Brains OS Plus firmware. Now, this is firmware that you can install on a lot of different ASIC mining machines, so go to the website and see which models are supported. But if your model is supported and you're not using it, you are leaving Sats on the table. This can allow you to improve your efficiency by as much as twenty percent, and you can point your hash rate towards any pool, but if you point your hash rate towards Slush Pool, you get zero percent pool fees. And just note, they are changing the name Name from Slush Pool to Brains Pool, just to align all the branding. So that website is brains dot com, that's b r a i i n s dot com. Are you a Bitcoin builder or somebody trying to take Bitcoin as payment? Voltage can help you out. They can make it really easy to set up your Bitcoin node or your Lightning node or a BTC Pay Server node. So for those of you who are looking to scale nodes instantly by the thousands or get quality inbound liquidity, Voltage can help you with Their various suite of tools and products, and so they just make it really slick and easy. So even if you've never run a Bitcoin node before, and maybe you're in a situation where you are traveling often, or potentially you are a merchant and you don't wanna run that hardware in your actual premises, Voltage can run that in the cloud for you, and they make it really slick. So that website is voltage dot cloud. Just go there and check it out, it's really quick and easy to get started. And now onto the show with Stack Hodler. Stack Hodler, welcome" }, { "speaker": "stack_hodler", "time": "03:01", "start": 181.0, "text": "Thank you, Stephan. It's good to be here. Thanks for having me." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "03:04", "start": 183.74, "text": "Yeah, I have been enjoying some of your Twitter insights, and I thought this would be an interesting conversation, obviously just to, get a bit of your views on what's going on around the world in a macroeconomics sense and, and, you know, from one Bitcoiner to another. So, obviously don't dox anything about yourself, but, do you wanna just give us a little bit of your, at least what you're mainly interested in from a Bitcoin perspective?" }, { "speaker": "stack_hodler", "time": "03:28", "start": 207.52, "text": "Yeah, Like you're saying, I'm an anonymous investor in the Swiss Alps, surrounded by cows and, and beautiful vistas, et cetera. but I've been posting on Twitter, say, like the last six months, mainly about the big macro stuff. So as the price is plummeting and, and people are freaking out, I kinda like to just take a step back and say, \"All right, what is the bigger picture here? What is actually happening, and how does Bitcoin fit into all this stuff?\" so I've been focusing on that, and I think, That's what I've been focusing on, the big, big macro stuff." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "04:03", "start": 243.38, "text": "Yeah, for sure. And as I read you, you're, you're doing, you're more like, it's more like fundamental analysis around just looking at the news and how that plays into, let's say, the Bitcoin thesis, right?" }, { "speaker": "stack_hodler", "time": "04:14", "start": 254.45, "text": "Yeah, I mean, it's exactly that. And I think, I saw a tweet from, from Zero Hedge the other day, and I think it kind of sums it up, but they were saying like, \"Look, there's so many crazy things going on I'm trying to just honestly just stay on top of it and, and form my own understanding of what's going on, always with the question of, you know, how does Bitcoin fit into this? Does this change the thesis at all for investing in Bitcoin? And, and really the answer is, is kind of no. It's, it's this whole time we've been seeing a crazy thing after crazy thing happen, and I always ask myself like, is this gonna lead eventually to, more liquidity or less liquidity? And, and ultimately I think, I think the liquidity will return," }, { "speaker": "stack_hodler", "time": "05:00", "start": 300.02, "text": "That, you know, if, if you care about the Bitcoin price, it's really, it's really a reflection of liquidity in the system, right? So we kind of just have to monitor, what's going on, what's eventually gonna, you know, you've heard this phrase a lot, but break and ultimately lead to more liquidity entering back in. So that's what I've been focusing on, and that's, you know, everything from movements in fiat currencies and, and debt markets and, you know, tracking, tracking various entities that look like they might be on the verge That's what I've been paying most attention to." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "05:32", "start": 332.04, "text": "Yeah. And so as you were rightly saying, there's so many different things going on, perhaps the challenge then is figuring out what's actually the signal here in all of the noise. So what kinds of things are you looking at as the important things to pay attention to?" }, { "speaker": "stack_hodler", "time": "05:46", "start": 345.51, "text": "Yeah, I mean, well, certainly like fiat currencies would be one of the first places to start. I think the big story has been, you know, this whole time we were like, \"What's, what's gonna be the best store of value when inflation" }, { "speaker": "stack_hodler", "time": "06:00", "start": 360.02, "text": "Well, funny enough, it's been the dollar, right? The dollar has been absolutely murdering pretty much every asset and every other fiat currency really, maybe not the ruble, but we can get into that later. but I think the big story has been this, this dollar strength, right? And you've seen some people, you know, taking victory lap saying, \"Haha, all you idiots thought the dollar system was gonna die, and, you know, here we are, dollar stronger than ever, and, every other fiat's failing.\" And I think that's fair. John Johnson, I think's his name. Yeah. He deserves so much credit for calling this out, you know, I mean, he was, he was on this, he, he understood how the system works and, you know, when there's a demand for, dollars, 'cause there's all this dollar-denominated debt, the dollar's gonna be the thing that performs best. So, you know, kudos to him. But I, one thing I would say is like, look, this, this dollar strength really is, in a way, it's its weakness," }, { "speaker": "stack_hodler", "time": "06:56", "start": 415.74, "text": "because what Right? I mean, if it's crushing all of these economies, emerging markets, et cetera, that's just the biggest incentive in the world to find something else to trade in, and I think that that's what we're starting to see. That's been a huge, huge thing happening, and, and we can talk more about that later as well. But the other fiat currencies I'm keeping my eye on are, you know, number two and number three, which are the, the euro and the yen. and I think, you know, a lot of people have talked about the" }, { "speaker": "stack_hodler", "time": "07:27", "start": 447.08, "text": "yen It's lost something like thirty-six percent of its value in the last year, and that's really just a signal of the debt crisis that they're in. I mean, you're talking about Japan as a country with something around two hundred and fifty percent debt to GDP, and they can't let ten-year yields rise above point two five percent, which is just pretty, it's, it's pretty insane because if, if it rises past that point, then they're, essentially their economy implodes. And the reason for that is they have all of these conservative Japanese debt holders, people like, You know, pension plans, insurance funds, things like that, and they hold tons of Japanese debt, and any decrease in that value is essentially gonna make them insolvent. So their, their, their economy can't afford yields to go above point two five percent. And so as the Fed has been raising, it's essentially just been putting pressure on Japan and on those ten-year yields, and the Bank of Japan has had to step in and, and change their policy to, okay, we're, they're already doing yield curve control, but they would kind of do it selectively as needed, but now At the point where they're like, \"Look, we will buy unlimited Japanese government bonds daily, you know, with yen printed from the sky, and frankly we don't give a damn if the yen is devaluing. All we, all we care about is that we don't go past point two five percent on the yield.\" so that's pretty crazy. I think seeing that is, it's almost like looking into the future of all of these central banks, you know, whether it's the, the ECB or the Fed. Because they're all kind of in the same problem, right? There's too much debt, there's no hope of paying it off through growth, and at the end of the day, what's gonna suffer is gonna be the currencies. and so with Japan in particular, the thing that I find very interesting there Is they are the largest foreign holder of US Treasuries. So I believe they have, they have like one point six trillion in US Treasuries. And so if they can't, they can't let rates rise above point two five percent, and the result of that is the yen getting crushed. Well, they can keep that going as long as inflation doesn't get too bad in Japan. But if it does, and then there's, you know, popular demand for them to change this policy, one of the only things they could do, one of the only moves they could make at that point, would be to start dumping, you know, US Treasuries on mass, at the same time that the Fed is talking about doing quantitative tightening. So that's not a situation that the Fed wants to see happen. So, you know, would the Fed essentially, at that point, step in and say, \"Hey, like, why don't we help you buy these JGBs, these Japanese Easing for, Japan, which is kind of crazy, but yeah, so there's just this, this large amount of US Treasuries that, let's just say they did sell that, they just kind of dumped that on the market, you would have the point where then the Fed is suddenly looking at massive yields skyrocketing, and they might actually be at the point where they have to start doing yield curve control too." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "10:18", "start": 617.7, "text": "Yeah, sure. And I think so just to walk through some of the thinking there, as you were rewinding a little bit, as you were saying, if US" }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "10:29", "start": 628.79, "text": "Japanese bond market. Is that basically because the competition, in terms of for investment, now more and more people are gonna try to buy USD and get into USD bonds on the margin, which sucks away people who are buying otherwise would be buying Japanese government bonds, and so that's causing this dynamic that you're explaining where basically the Japanese institutions, the central bank, has to enter the market more and print more." }, { "speaker": "stack_hodler", "time": "10:55", "start": 655.15, "text": "Yeah, that's, I think that's very well said, and I think that's what you're seeing, and- Not just in Japan, but, you know, in, in Europe with the euro as well, is like, you look at comparative, anytime there's like a policy divergence between these central banks, the one that's raising rates is the one that's attracting capital, and so that's just, it applies the pressure on all these other central banks to raise rates and try to keep pace with the Fed, because if they don't, exactly what you just said happens, and it, it, it draws capital over to, to the side that's raising rates." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "11:24", "start": 684.13, "text": "And it's a very unfortunate scenario This for a while is that the world is going to look like Japan, basically. Like if you wanna get a, a sense of what our future is in the, for those in the Western world, it's gonna look potentially like Japan does, which means an environment of low growth. I'm not sure what Japanese corporate tax rates are, but I know their personal income tax rates are relatively high, and so this is also another bad factor, right? Because if you're an individual in those countries and you're looking down the barrel of paying fifty, fifty-five percent tax rate at the top rate, then it's" }, { "speaker": "stack_hodler", "time": "11:59", "start": 719.17, "text": "Yeah, no, absolutely it's not. I think, you know, the world turning Japanese, we haven't even had to wait long because look at Europe, right? I mean, I actually didn't look at the news, I think it came out an hour ago, but today they're-- so for the first time since 2011, they're actually raising rates, which, let's give them a little round of applause. Raising rates to zero percent, very impressive from negative point five percent. So, that whole story was kind" }, { "speaker": "stack_hodler", "time": "12:29", "start": 748.75, "text": "It's completely decimated by the dollar. It's time for us to make moves. We gotta try to keep pace with the Fed, and yeah, we're gonna start raising rates too. And what happened? You know, yields went from zero or negative and just completely shot up, and, it, it freaked 'em out, right? Like they saw yields, Italian yields, German yields, all the yields going skyward. And, three days later, so they had a meeting, and then three days later, they had an emergency meeting. And in the emergency meeting, they, Raise rates without completely blowing up these, these debt laden countries, right? Like Italy with a hundred percent, hundred fifty percent debt to GDP. Like, how are we gonna raise rates without sending them into a debt crisis? And so they came out and they said, \"Okay, good news, guys, we, we came up with this brilliant idea. It's called a anti fragmentation tool. And bottom line there is central bankers are amazing coming up with silly names for money printing. it's the same damn thing, right? Like they're gonna-- This anti fragmentation tool, it's, But what they're doing is they're gonna be buying Italian bonds or, or basically buying the bonds of the pigs, the bonds that are gonna end up shooting up higher because, you know, they're high risk countries. the ECB is just gonna end up buying those, doing a form of yield curve control just like Japan, at the expense of, say, you know, the northern countries like Germany or the Netherlands. So they're gonna be robbing Peter to pay Paul, and it's probably not even gonna help that much because, actually, you know, the one, one, one last It's interesting because in Italy right now, you can expect, all right, so if they're, if they're, if they're helping bail out the Italian bond market, it's gonna come with some strings attached, right, from the ECB. So you're gonna have, you're gonna have this supranational entity, the ECB, trying to dictate fiscal policy like they normally do, but they're gonna be trying to do that to a sovereign state like Italy, and it's at an interesting moment because, you know, once again, Italian government collapses, you know, what's new, but, it was Mario Draghi who was the central banker, and he's out now. The question is like, who comes in after him? And if you have the ECB dictating, you know, tighter fiscal behaviors, does that lead to sort of a populist movement of potentially Italians wanting to exit the EU? So one thing I was just, thinking about as I was thinking" }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "14:43", "start": 883.11, "text": "through this stuff. Of course. For years, many, even Austrians such as, Philip Bargas has written about the tragedy of the euro and s- pointing out there's just this systemic flaw, and we've seen obviously with Brexit occurring, are there other countries who are starting to look for the exit doors? And then that also could be a big problem in the case where debt is concerned, because there's always that question then of who's taking on debt for which one, right? And where does the debt go and what does that mean for the EU? breaking down. of course, that might be some time away, but this is-- these are the actions that are leading towards that. So the other interesting dynamic as well in Europe is that there are a lot of depositors who are just sitting there getting owned by negative rates, and that's just been the reality for years now. So I'm curious what your view is on those depositors and why they're staying in the ECB euro banking systems." }, { "speaker": "stack_hodler", "time": "15:46", "start": 945.81, "text": "Yeah, I mean, that's, that's a great- Great question, why are they doing it? I would assume it's just some sort of, it's a form of momentum, right? They don't really know any better and a lot of people don't really think about these things, too deeply unless it gets really acute. And I think if they enter a situation like, like Japan, where you're seeing an aggressive, again, J- yen thirty-six percent loss against the dollar this year, euro has been crushed as well, I think you might start seeing people start questioning that, hopefully, I would imagine, but at the same time, As Bitcoiners, we are in a bit of a bubble, and I think it's easy for us to assume that people will figure it out, but we're talking about questioning, you know, sovereign debt. In most people's minds, sovereign debt is like the safest thing, and even if it's negative yielding, like, okay, I'm willing to pay, I'm willing to pay to hold these bonds because, it's the safest thing I can hold. So I think breaking that, I don't know how that happens, and I think there's probably a lot more trust in the EU and" }, { "speaker": "stack_hodler", "time": "16:47", "start": 1006.93, "text": "question, I'm, I'm not sure why they would do it. Certainly, it, it seems a bit, it seems a bit masochistic on their side." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "16:53", "start": 1012.83, "text": "Yeah, of course. I mean, look, the obvious answers are, in some cases, they may be a regulated institution with no other choice. In other cases, it's the momentum, as you said, and in some cases, it's just that they don't see that they have an easy way out, because from their point of view, if you're a fiat person, you might just be thinking," }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "17:17", "start": 1037.05, "text": "Sort of like future euros, and maybe the idea is, okay, I'm going to-- again, I'm bending over backwards here to try to still man the case, but it might be like, okay, they're seeing it as like future euros. and I, I understand, for some people who are, let's say, bond bulls, part of the case that they would make, obviously I disagree with them, but again, they see it like, I'm holding these USD bonds because that represents future dollars, which I can use in the time of a crisis to scoop up some cheap On the cheap to get a good deal, or it may be for systemic reasons that they hold a lot of USD bonds because they don't have any other easy way to store value, because let's say the deposit guarantees at various banks only go up to, let's say, two hundred and fifty thousand or a hundred thousand, depending on that, if we're talking about high net worth, you know, people with a lot of money or institutions. And in, in that case, maybe that's why they're holding a lot of bonds. So I'm curious, is that-- do you agree, disagree with that" }, { "speaker": "stack_hodler", "time": "18:17", "start": 1097.01, "text": "Say I don't, I don't personally own any bonds, so it's, it's hard to, it's hard to put myself in those shoes, just knowing that we're at the end of a big debt cycle, and ultimately it's the debt holders that are gonna get crushed. I think ultimately we're gonna reach the point where the only people that wanna hold, or that hold bonds are, it's gonna be the group of people you mentioned, it's the ones that are forced to, right? It's gonna be the pension funds that have a certain forced allocation, and they're just" }, { "speaker": "stack_hodler", "time": "18:42", "start": 1122.18, "text": "gonna have to Three percent, maybe I can, I can see the, the momentum trade, you know, it's like, okay, maybe if I buy it three percent and it goes back to zero, then the value of those bonds is gonna shoot up and then I can sell them at that point. But I think, you know, holding to maturity, knowing that the, the currency that they're, denominated in is going to be printed to oblivion, I, I think that that's just kinda silly. So I don't know, I, I do think a lot of people probably look at them just" }, { "speaker": "stack_hodler", "time": "19:17", "start": 1156.97, "text": "And I'm happy to hold these bonds, yeah, it might be worth a little less in the future, but, you know, at least I'm not taking on any currency risk or, yeah, I'm not gonna buy Bitcoin because it's too volatile and I'm a retiree and I just wanna be guaranteed X amount of euros in ten years, right? And so maybe that's good enough for them. So, yeah, I think those are probably all valid reasons." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "19:35", "start": 1174.68, "text": "Yeah, sure. And I think maybe to some extent we're just underestimating the inertia, because then I'm sure there are a Engine fund, and that could be a government requirement in many countries, that is the case, and unknowing, you know, to them, that fund holds some allocation in stocks and bonds, and that's just, you know, and that's where a lot of them, a typical allocation, obviously the sixty forty stocks and bonds is, is a common thing. Other funds have different allocations of stocks around the world and maybe some, you know, a bond component, and reality is that they're the people who are holding bonds without really even knowing it, and maybe not having that much control over what precisely is in In that retirement account, so maybe that's, one component of it. And I think the other interesting part, and as you mentioned, I think it is that question of who takes the loss, because I think if we look historically, there are, I think in most cases, it's the debt holders, the bond holders, who are the ones who get wrecked. But, what's the possibility on the other side that, if, for argument's sake, if let's say governments start to default the honest way, as opposed to the inflationary pathway, I'm curi I guess if you have any thoughts on that." }, { "speaker": "stack_hodler", "time": "20:48", "start": 1248.09, "text": "Yeah, then I think everybody, I mean, everybody takes a loss in that case, right? Like if you're talking about default and they just let everything collapse, then okay, you're talking about a depression, right? And in that case, it's pretty much everybody collectively. I mean, people who have enough cash in that case will be actually be in the best shape, but collectively, I mean, people aren't gonna be able to get jobs and, it's, yeah, it's a complete disaster, right? And so, I mean Wealthy and, and sort of confiscate wealth. That's another way that somebody could take a loss. So no matter what asset you hold, but let's say you have a net worth above, I don't know, ten million or whatever the number will be, maybe you're gonna have massive confiscatory taxes, and that's, and that's one move that the government takes. But I think like, yeah, historically you see various moves. Typically it's, you know, the currency loses in the end, they, they debase the currency and, and they try to get money flowing again." }, { "speaker": "stack_hodler", "time": "21:47", "start": 1306.93, "text": "That are us. So, yeah, you kinda wanna be prepared, and I think originally one of the reasons we connected on Twitter was this idea of how do you prepare for, various economic environments? And, you know, at the time, I think we were-- this was in like November, we were tweeting similar things, but there was this whole like get on zero movement in the Bitcoin community, and, and I was- I think, and I think you were too, we were kind of cautioning people saying like, \"Look, like, yeah, this is great, it's, it's great to get on zero when everything's going up ten, fifteen percent a day, but, it's not so great to get on zero when they actually are tight and assets are selling off and we're in a deflationary spiral, and suddenly the only thing that everybody wants is cash, right? And in that case, you really wanna have-- you wanna have a cash cushion and you wanna make sure you have cash flow," }, { "speaker": "stack_hodler", "time": "22:38", "start": 1358.0, "text": "We're gonna go through and how I'm gonna make sure I'm not like stressed out to the max during any one of these stages. And I think, I, I like having mostly Bitcoin and with it, with a sizable cash cushion, and then also some gold. and we can, we can talk about that if you want. I, I, I hold gold reluctantly, basically," }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "22:55", "start": 1374.95, "text": "but I, I do hold some. you're a shitcoiner. Nah, whatever. but, I think the funny, I think the interesting, yeah, it is, On average, Bitcoin is going up, and you should just, you know, maximize that. But I think when you put it into practice, there are various steps and things along the way that might stop you. So quick example, what if you're running a business and, you know, or if you have staff to pay, you have certain liabilities that are just in fiat, in USD or whatever other fiat, that can be difficult. Or if you have, let's say, a big lump sum payment coming due in, let's say, six months or three months, well, you're not gonna go all So let's say we had this big drop from, let's say, sixty-nine thousand at the top down to, call it, seventeen thousand five hundred-ish at the bottom recently, which we hit maybe a month ago. You know, at that point, if you had to pay a fiat obligation of ten thousand dollars, you're paying over half a coin. Whereas, you know, I can, yeah, I can certainly appreciate where there's a little bit of a need to balance the cash cushion aspect with, yeah, a-and the other, the other important point to consider is what if you lose your job, own bear market, then you're just getting like double whammy negative on both sides. So I think that's where probably my principal disagreement with the get on zero, movement is, and of course, I wrote articles and I did podcasts about that too, but I think, of course, I'm, I'm very highly allocated to Bitcoin, but I, I don't, I don't quite believe it makes sense to go zero, but, you know, that's, that's kind of how I'm seeing it. What, what do you, what, do you have any other" }, { "speaker": "stack_hodler", "time": "24:38", "start": 1478.0, "text": "At the bottom of a, of a deflationary spiral. So if, God forbid, they, they let it just go all out into a depression, I mean, that's when it's gonna be hardest to have a job and, and have cash flow, right? And that's when, that's the moment you would have to sell Bitcoin. Let's say you lose your job, like, okay, you're gonna sell at the very bottom, as like a worst case scenario, right? So you just wanna, you wanna-- that's a non-zero probability, so you wanna, you wanna make sure Where we, we know it's gonna go, then, you know, the extra fiat you have, that'll be, you know, it's not gonna be worth a ton at that, at that time, but your Bitcoin's gonna more than make up for that loss. so that's, that's kind of how I think about it. I don't mind holding some fiat as a, as a way to just sleep well in moments like this. And if it ends up being, you know, worthless one day, then I know the Bitcoin, it's gonna, it's gonna more than make up" }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "25:31", "start": 1530.76, "text": "Back to the show in a moment. Now, if you're thinking about Bitcoin hardware security, my favorite in the space is CoinKite dot com. They offer the Coldcard. This is an excellent Bitcoin hardware signing device, and I really do believe it is the best overall because it just has the best overall blend of different features while offering such a high level of security. It looks like a little calculator, and if you're a beginner, you can just buy this and get a cable to plug it into your computer, and you can use it directly with wallets like Specter or Sparrow or Electrum, or if you're advanced, you can of course use this with multi-signature, you can use it with a passphrase, you can use all kinds of different features such as the Juris pin or the Brickme pin to tune and calibrate your security to your desired level. So that website is CoinKite dot com and use the code Livera for a discount on your cold card. Now, as we are still seeing the fallout at exchanges and lending platforms over the last few weeks, this is an important reminder for everybody to take control of your Bitcoin keys. Holding your Bitcoin with someone else puts you at risk, your withdrawals could be blocked, or you might be caught up in someone else's insolvency and waiting for years. So this is where Unchained Capital can help you. Unchained offers concierge onboarding, this is a service to help guide you through setting up your own cold storage and withdrawing from an exchange to keys you control. They ship you the hardware, they walk you through the setup over a video call, and they help you with withdrawal from the exchange and cover questions you have through the process. Once you're set up, there's some You've been putting off taking your Bitcoin off an exchange? Concierge onboarding is the way to do this sooner rather than later. So go to Unchained dot com slash Concierge and use the code Livera. Back to the show with Stack Hodler. Yeah, right. I'm also curious to get your thoughts on the credit cycles component of this, right? Because I think that's another thing that comes through in some of your threads, and I think you wrote one as well about this idea of why people are selling and people who sell because they have to and not because they want to. So could you elaborate on that idea?" }, { "speaker": "stack_hodler", "time": "27:32", "start": 1652.2, "text": "Yeah, of course. Yeah, so I think first of all, you have to understand like when we had ne- when we had negative or, or zero percent interest rates for so long, like for, you know, ten years plus Mother is taking out debt, right? Like money's free. We, we saw it on Twitter all the, all the time. It's like, \"Oh, take out debt, buy assets, it's all free money, right? Why not do it?\" Well, that's all well and good, but then if they do start raising interest rates, then the next thought in somebody's mind who's holding debt is, \"Crap, I'm not gonna be able to service this debt at higher interest rates. So what I should do is, let's say I, let's say I bought assets on You know, pocket the difference, I, I made some profit, no worries. but as they're doing that, the asset prices start to fall, right? And then more and more people are looking at their, their balance sheet and they're saying, \"Well, actually, I have all this debt, I should probably sell some assets for cash, too.\" or I'll move into, you know, something like bonds that seem safer that I can sell at a later point. And so that's what happens, it's like people are, people are essentially selling assets to be able to pay" }, { "speaker": "stack_hodler", "time": "28:39", "start": 1719.31, "text": "Cash cushion, so all your short term obligations are covered, you have, really you have zero reason to worry at that point, right? Because you don't have to sell an asset at a depressed price, you can kind of ride it out. but I think the thing to know is like the way these credit cycles typically end, at least at this stage in the, in the big debt cycle, which is when we have tons and tons of debt in the system, essentially what happens is eventually, there's some leveraged entity that has tons of debt and they're a massive entity and, and Close to default, or they, or they actually default. and at that point, essentially central banks have to slam on the brakes, send rates down to zero, print a bunch of money, and then bail out that entity that has the bad debt. So Basically the two things to know are like, number one, just have enough cash and have a job like during that deflationary period where you don't have to worry and sell assets, and don't take on too much debt so you're not one of the people that's like scrambling to sell assets. And then number two is just, you know, be positioned for when that turnaround comes, you're holding, an asset that number one, can't be debased like the currency's about to be. And number two, I mean, this is what I love in particular about Bitcoin moment when you have, let's call it a globally systemic institution, close to default, that's the moment of maximum risk, right? And that's when you wanna hold something that doesn't have that counterparty risk. So that's the way I think about it. That's thinking about credit cycles that way kinda, it helps me wait until that moment. It's like, okay, something eventually's gonna break, so all you have to do is" }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "30:11", "start": 1811.0, "text": "make it through to that point. Right. And so as Bitcoiners are very naturally bullish on Bitcoin and therefore bearish on a lot of fiat," }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "30:22", "start": 1822.27, "text": "This cycle to play out and in the short and maybe even medium term, certain fiat currencies will do well, like the US dollar, obviously, objectively has done well in that short to medium term because maybe we've seen this dynamic of high inflation countries where they are running to the US dollar. So Argentinians are running to the US dollar because they don't-- because they, they've, you know, they've, they've seen this movie before, they've seen it every few decades or every decade, so they sort of have that cultural, I guess, knowledge That they might just go and do that because they saw their dad do it or their granddad did it, and other countries are doing that. And so in a way, in a sense, the US and the USD and government, US government bonds, they have a lot more bagholders around the world just because things are priced in USD and people run to the USD, at least in the short and medium term, of course, long term we see everyone's running to Bitcoin. So it's kind of a, an interesting question for a Bitcoiner about how to navigate these waters when it's kind of like Short term bullish for USD moment." }, { "speaker": "stack_hodler", "time": "31:25", "start": 1884.75, "text": "Yeah, and I think, I think one of the other interesting things to, to understand there is like, yes, people are running to USD because it's, you know, the best performing fiat, there's also the aspect of, well, there's so much dollar-denominated debt around the world, and there's not actually that many dollars. so once that debt, people are scrambling to pay off that debt, it's just a race for scarce dollars, right? And so that's just driving demand." }, { "speaker": "stack_hodler", "time": "31:51", "start": 1911.07, "text": "so that's Some other podcasts I've heard, basically you have all of these loans that are offshore, that are denominated in dollars. but the banks that made those loans, they, they can't issue dollars, right? So like, if people are trying to pay those loans off, they're gonna have to try to sell assets, and really there's just a scarce amount of dollars, created in the US that everybody kinda has to fight over. And so that's why you see the Dixie shooting up and all these other fiats getting, destroyed and-- And then one of the interesting things" }, { "speaker": "stack_hodler", "time": "32:22", "start": 1942.33, "text": "Inflation, right? Like when do you, so how do, like when do these credit cycle busts end in something like a hyperinflation? And, and typically it's, it's when you have a lot of debt in a currency that you can't print. And so that's why you see it in places like Argentina, where, okay, they might have a lot of dollar-denominated debt, but they can only print pesos. And so that's, that's a situation where you're gonna end up printing pesos and you're not actually gonna get that much closer to paying off your debt. Dutch marks, or whatever they were at the time, and, so that, that's, that's what happens there. But typically, if you, if you can print your currency, so let's say the US or Europe, you have a lot of debt, but you can print your currency, typically they can manage without causing a hyperinflation. I think that that's probably a, it's probably a mechanism that a lot of Bitcoiners aren't familiar with, is just like when, when these credit cycle, deflations happen, and you get a deflationary period Taking a bunch of money, they sometimes can actually balance it out, right? Like they're putting money into the system, but there's money being taken out in the form of credit, and so that's kind of like a, it's a complicated fiat mechanism that doesn't always make sense intuitively, but, as long as you can print your own currency, you can sometimes avoid that hyperinflation pretty, pretty easily." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "33:41", "start": 2020.88, "text": "I see what you're saying. So it's, it's sort of like saying there's two countervailing forces, and of course, in all of this," }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "33:52", "start": 2032.33, "text": "potentially able to benefit in some sense because they're able to print enough that they can take command of the real resources out there in the world, because they've managed to print while this credit deflation was occurring, or they were able to, let's say, bail out the politically connected, as we saw with two thousand and eight and two thousand and nine, where they were basically bailing out the politically connected while letting the everyday people suffer. And I- I'm also curious to get your view on this as well, because there's been a view, I think, for some time in the investing world about, okay, it's, it's the long run, right? Like, oh, just keep buying equities because it's just gonna go up in the long run anyway, and, you know, and people might even make the historical examples of, oh, look, two thousand and eight, there was a big drop, but in two thousand and nine, it was a big relief recovery. So if you sold out then and you weren't in in See that as a trap this time? how are you looking at, equities and how, you know, will people get tricked? Basically the question I'm asking is, will people get tricked by pattern matching of what happened last time?" }, { "speaker": "stack_hodler", "time": "35:03", "start": 2103.26, "text": "Yeah, I mean, I, the short answer is I don't, I don't know. I, I don't know. I don't wanna say, you know, this time's different or anything like that, 'cause I, I don't know, but My gut tells me it's actually not different this time. I think that it all comes down to, in my opinion, it all comes down to like a liquidity play, and I think that, you know, equities are more-- are gonna be more scarce than the fiat flood they're gonna send our way. So anything that's denominated in fiat will probably go up over time. To me, I'm like, okay, well, I wanna hold the thing that's gonna reliably go up the most. that's why I'm more interested in, in holding Bitcoin than equities. I mean," }, { "speaker": "stack_hodler", "time": "35:40", "start": 2140.06, "text": "You know, you could make smart, intelligent investments, but one thing that's interesting though is I think you can, you can kind of make the argument that people treat, at least in the US, but, well, actually, I guess around the world, but people treat the S&P 500 index kinda in the way that bitcoiners would love people to treat Bitcoin, right? They treat it as a store of value. So everybody knows, like, okay, don't just put cash in the bank, you're gonna get, you're gonna lose long term. so just buy" }, { "speaker": "stack_hodler", "time": "36:10", "start": 2170.14, "text": "To adopt about Bitcoin, and I think, you know, we see the advantages of Bitcoin over something like the S&P 500, now to steal men their argument, they would say something like, you know, equities are backed by cash flowing businesses, there's, there's real, you know, property, plant, and equipment on the ground, there's, there's tangible things tied to these, to these equities, but on the other hand, we could say, you know, look like Bitcoin is more portable, you can take it with you to any country," }, { "speaker": "stack_hodler", "time": "36:40", "start": 2200.22, "text": "It's not in any one jurisdiction like the United States where, if Saudi Arabia buys a bunch of S&P 500, do they get it seized one day? Like that's just not a thing with Bitcoin. and honestly, you know, tying yourself entirely to the future of the United States, I don't know if that's something I'm comfortable with these days, given the, debt situation. So, but I- I did, I do think it's interesting how people treat the S&P 500 and, and it's actually reacted pretty well during this, during this ini-- at least this initial drop. Now, does it, does it drop further? I think, I think one of the things you're alluding to was like, well, like when a bubble pops, you know, people are in the buy the dip mentality and the S&P 500 goes down in price and it still, it still looks appealing, right? It looks appealing to buy because in your head you're thinking about Eventually what happens is like that initial bubble bursts, people lose a bunch of wealth, so their portfolios get smaller, and, and when that happens, people naturally just spend less money. And when they spend less money, eventually that leaks into the earnings, and once those updated earnings with less, the lower earnings come in, then the share price to book will fall after that. So, yeah, buy the-- people who buy the dip can kind of lose at that point, but I think ultimately it's probably just gonna-- once the money printer turns on, all of this stuff goes back up again." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "37:57", "start": 2276.59, "text": "Right A stock melt up situation, yeah. even if the price to earnings ratios are getting into crazy levels, right? Because historically they've been, you know, at much more lower levels than they are today, but they, they can definitely, just get back up there. so another angle that was interesting is this whole idea of mortgage boycotts, and maybe this is touching on a little bit around that idea of who takes the loss, because there's been a little bit of news coming out of China with- Let's say certain, I think residential mortgages where people were just basically boycotting because I, I don't know the full detail, but as I understand, there were some property developers who went under and stopped building the buildings, so then the people on the other side who have the mortgage are like, \"Well, I'm not paying that then.\" So I'm curious, do you have any thoughts on what the implications of that will be? Like, will we see that in other places?" }, { "speaker": "stack_hodler", "time": "38:50", "start": 2330.39, "text": "Yeah, I would imagine the implications are pretty big, but I don't know. one thing I Pretty quickly I'll get, you know, replies from, from, not bots, but they look like accounts that are maybe funded by the CCP. So that's, that's an interesting thing. It's like, it's telling me that, clear-- clearly they don't want me talking about this. So I'm gonna talk about it anyway. essentially they have the Chinese real estate market, you know, it's, it's massive, right? It's the largest single asset class in the world, so bigger than US equities and, and US Treasuries, et c Store their wealth, right? Like they store their wealth in real estate instead of, you know, like the S&P 500 index. but the thing is, like, a lot of this isn't even necessarily finished real estate in the sense that people are buying kind of these concrete boxes and these giant towers, and nobody's really living in them. It's like they, they made some money, they need a place to put it, and so they'll buy, you know, \"quote unquote\" real estate, but half the time it's not even hooked up to electricity. So it To a place to store their wealth and, and, you know, some concrete box is what they, they all kind of collectively settled on. But, yeah, and so there's been, I mean, a lot of people listening to this probably remember this whole Evergrande default situation last year. One of the largest property developers in China, defaulted on their debt last year, and turns out there's a whole bunch of these developers that are-- they were overleveraged and ran out of money, so they're essentially insolvent at this point, and they don't have any money to finish Where you start paying your mortgage on your apartment before you even have the apartment, right? So the apartment doesn't exist, but you're paying a mortgage on it, which is kind of crazy, but, now people are realizing like, okay, there's no way our developers are gonna be able to finish this project. so why don't we just stop, like you said, why don't we just stop paying the mortgage, right? Like it's a form of protest. So apparently there's three hundred and one projects in ninety one cities that are now seeing these protests pop up. And the" }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "40:59", "start": 2459.08, "text": "no, I didn't hear about this. So they're, they're doing this also?" }, { "speaker": "stack_hodler", "time": "41:02", "start": 2461.66, "text": "Yeah. So essentially, it's these suppliers that, you know, they were supplying, raw materials to the developers and to, to, to make the supplies, they essentially took out loans from the bank as well. and now they're refusing to pay back their bank loans. so they're like, they're like, \"Look, Evergrande stopped paying me, so I'm gonna stop paying you.\" So at the end of all of this is these Chinese banks," }, { "speaker": "stack_hodler", "time": "41:29", "start": 2488.84, "text": "Big bank, the government's probably not just gonna let them fail, so what's really gonna happen is China's gonna have to do, I mean, most likely, in my limited knowledge, they're probably gonna have to do some form of a bailout but it's a very, very tricky situation because, you know, if you do a bailout, do you encourage other people to stop paying their mortgages? You know, I mean, if this is a widespread problem, that could, that could kind of encourage that behavior. So, and they have their, you know, they have their party congress coming up in, in the fall, so they wanna avoid all bad optics, and this is certainly not, not great optics." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "42:01", "start": 2521.03, "text": "Yeah, it's fascinating to think about because there's so many different angles of how things could go, but as you're In many cases, and not endorsing this, but just neutrally recognizing what are the likely or possible outcomes, if the government does a taxpayer funded bailout, well then taxpayers are paying. If the, if the government prints, well then all currency holders are getting debased. you know, if they do a bail-in, then the current depositors of those banks get wrecked. So it's kind of Th-th-there's someone somewhere is gonna bear that loss of the non-performing loans that have been made in these overly exuberant times, and so it's really just pointing out that there's really not any good options or nice ways this is going to play out, and unfortunately, there have been, from an Austrian perspective, there have been malinvestments made, and the only way out now is to liquidate them and have those resources go elsewhere, and so that's, the unfortunate reality of what's- It's going to happen, and it may not just be restricted to China. And I think maybe the broader point here is that people were using properties as their store of value, and perhaps there's also a cultural component to this as well. Like from what I talk to Chinese people as well, as I understand, it's seen like if you are a man looking for a wife in China, you need to have a property and a car, otherwise, you know, you're a loser kind of thing. So that maybe there's a cultural component of that over time because it's seen like, oh, property is Property is the thing you do, and in various countries, this exists, this property culture. So this whole culture of using property as your store of value, maybe that has to change, and people, will slowly, learn to use Bitcoin as their store of value." }, { "speaker": "stack_hodler", "time": "43:46", "start": 2625.64, "text": "Yeah, I hope, I hope it does change, and I think that, you know, storing your wealth in a concrete box that doesn't have electricity is, is far from ideal, right? And for various reasons that, that Bitcoiners know well, but, you know, how much, how much liquidity you know, it's not exactly divisible, it's not super portable, not that Chinese governments want you to, you, have your wealth be portable, but yeah, it's just, it's, it's far from an ideal store of wealth, and it is probably, yeah, it's a cultural thing, but it's nice to know that now there is this thing called Bitcoin that is just, it's engineered as a store of wealth, right? And I, I think about it often and how grateful I am to hold it, right? The fact that I can take my wealth with" }, { "speaker": "stack_hodler", "time": "44:32", "start": 2671.61, "text": "Think about it, the, the more you just kinda fall in love with this asset, just from a practi-practi-practicality standpoint. and then the, the other thing I would say, and this is, this is far more speculative, but if we're talking about, you know, what are the, how does it play out and, and what are the consequences of this? I would say that it's in times of internal struggle that countries often lash out externally, and we obviously know that China has their sights set on Taiwan. Is this the type of distraction that" }, { "speaker": "stack_hodler", "time": "45:02", "start": 2701.55, "text": "I think certainly if they have some form of a real estate collapse, or a banking crisis, before the party congress, they might, you know, want to deflect by, invading Taiwan. So hopefully that doesn't happen, but that could also be something that this leads to." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "45:15", "start": 2715.44, "text": "Right. And it's these times in history when the extremist leader, can come up and say the- Things that agitate the population and a- direct their anger and ire at somebody else and then use that to, as you said, distract from the problem. So we're also seeing this idea of the BRICS nations, right? Brazil, Russia, India, China, et cetera, some of these other countries who are almost trying to make moves outside of the US and the Western nations to sort of do their own thing instead of the, the Western world thing. I'm curious if you have any thoughts. Thoughts on these shifting alliances?" }, { "speaker": "stack_hodler", "time": "45:56", "start": 2756.1, "text": "Yeah, I think it's one of the most interesting things happening in the world right now, and again, it's one of these signposts of, okay, if I see this happening, how does it make me feel about my Bitcoin investment? It makes me feel pretty damn good, 'cause it's like things are changing in very unpredictable ways, but holding a neutral reserve asset that can't be debased or confiscated, I think it's a perfect time for that, and I, I, I think that ultimately these nations are gonna be looking for something like Bitcoin, In the process of, again, going back to one of the original points I made, they're in the process of figuring out how to get out of this dollar system, right? The dollar reserve currency has been, you know, bad and good, but it's been really bad for a lot of these countries, and in particular, they don't like the idea of the US bailing themselves out every time by printing a ton of money and then turning around and buying scarce, you know, commodities with that printed money. so why should the US have the, advantage of just" }, { "speaker": "stack_hodler", "time": "46:53", "start": 2813.12, "text": "Come out of Putin recently, he was essentially saying, \"You know, me and all these other countries are, are done with trading scarce commodities for infinite paper.\" I think it comes down to that. Now, one of the things I find most interesting is, it's crazy to hear all of these things being said, just, you know, in, in the broad daylight, right? 'Cause in the past, I don't know if you remember, but, you know, Gaddafi wanted to set up a, sort of a Pan-African gold-backed currency to replace the US dollar on the continent murdered. So I would say that the fact that these countries are so emboldened to be now openly talking about ditching the dollar is a pretty huge signpost. and they are just out in the open, you know, making deals with each other in various currencies. I saw a deal between, Russia and India for oil being paid in, oddly enough, UAE dirham. I've seen Turkey and Russia talk about trading and using the Turkish lira. but that, that's a funny one to me, right? 'Cause that, that It makes me laugh, it's like, okay, Russia wants to stop accepting dollars, but they're gonna accept Turkish lira, which is, I mean, it's garbage, right? So, ultimately, I think, yeah, maybe they'll accept Turkish lira, but they're gonna wanna convert that pretty immediately into something that's, you know, a lot more scarce than that fiat currency in particular. or if they hold Turkish lira, like, okay, now you have this coincidence of wants problem. You gotta hope that Turkey has stuff that you wanna buy with their, with their and what, what they're ultimately gonna end up on will be, will be interesting to watch. But, yeah, I mean, what are your, what are your thoughts on, on the bricks and all this stuff that's happening?" }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "48:31", "start": 2910.67, "text": "Yeah, so, the way I'm seeing it is they will only have limited power to try to change away from the US dollar. Of course, we wish they would go straight to Bitcoin, but we know Bitcoin is, perhaps a bit young and a bit small for that right now. The current market of Bitcoin is something like four hundred and fifty billion Realistically, go into Bitcoin openly at least, and so I think we will see some of these countries try to make moves to at least build their own alternatives, like there was this whole, like with the whole Russia Ukraine war, there were moves and discussions about alternatives to the Swift payment network. So yeah, they're gonna try to build out their own little payment networks, but I think in terms of denominating contracts, that might be difficult in a world when people are running to the USD. So it'll be interesting to see what happens with that. Maybe they'll try to make more of like commodity Plays. Yeah, I, I, I guess I don't have any special insight into, what the BRICS would do though. So, yeah, I think, I think at the end of the day, it just comes down to enough people being patient and recognizing, like, if you're a Bitcoiner, just having that patience, and not expecting everything to happen tomorrow, because there will be times when, you know, Bitcoin takes a, takes a dump, right? It takes a drop. as we saw, as we've seen recently with Tesla, sell-- Bitcoin. So even companies in large, you know, companies who are buying Bitcoin may be in a position where they have to sell it, and so that's just part of the reality. And I think for Bitcoiners out there, whether you are an individual or part of a company, or a, a part of it is about being financially in the right place and stable enough that you can actually hold onto your stack, because, you know, you don't wanna become a forced seller. It's the, probably the key idea." }, { "speaker": "stack_hodler", "time": "50:19", "start": 3018.52, "text": "Yeah, I, I would agree. That, that kind of sums up Lightning's probably best. just real, real quick back to the, to the BRICS though, we're seeing, so like you said, Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, but we're seeing other countries, talking about joining as well. So this is kind of a growing coalition. And yeah, they're not gonna be able to move away from the US dollar immediately, but they are starting to denominate some trade in various currencies. But, some big movements here, Saudi Arabia is talking about joining, Argentina and Iran, and I think" }, { "speaker": "stack_hodler", "time": "50:54", "start": 3053.94, "text": "and there's, there's two things to know about them. Number one is a lot of them have commodities that are needed by the Western world, and so that right there is a source of, of real power, right? It's not, it's not fiat debt power like the West is used, it's, it's real power 'cause you need these commodities to function in the modern world essentially. so they can wield that power over, you know, fiat indebted countries. And then, yeah, I mean, and then the other thing is like they're also large holders. Of, foreign exchange reserves. So in particular, US Treasuries. So like Saudi Arabia, their whole thing for a while was, \"We'll sell oil in dollars, and then we'll store profits in US Treasuries.\" Well, the big thing that's happening there is, is that's, that's now changing. If you look at treasury flows from Saudi Arabia, they're actually selling some and not buying any more US Treasuries. so they're-- I think what happened was like, like Russia, three hundred billion dollars in, in foreign exchange reserves were frozen by the" }, { "speaker": "stack_hodler", "time": "51:53", "start": 3113.14, "text": "And I think all of these countries were like, okay, well, that pretty much put an end to that sort of value, right? And so when you think of the US dollar, you can't really separate it from the debt that underlies it, and if there's not demand for that debt, you know, public demand for that debt, then it's essentially gonna have to be, purchased by the Fed via printed US dollars, a la Japan. So that, that is kinda, the thing that I'm also keeping an eye on is like, how do these countries stop? China, fell below one trillion in holdings, so they're kinda letting their, their US treasuries fall off as well. so those are, these are big, huge changes, right? Like into how the world, world trade works and what's being used as a store of value, et cetera. So those are things I'm keeping an eye on." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "52:38", "start": 3157.75, "text": "Yeah, so in a way, we could maybe summarize it as the different countries and governments around the world are just gonna have to engage in a lot more money printing. So it's just money printing around the world is almost the Into increasingly this, they're in between a rock and a hard place, that they're in a bad situation and arguably, I guess arguably, the least bad thing from their point of view is to print, and so that's what they're probably going to do. So I think that's essentially the view if you're looking out in the world as an investor, as a, you know, looking, assessing the macroeconomics of it, it's to see that they're going to have to print, and so we all have to think, what are we gonna do in response to that? Well, what things" }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "53:23", "start": 3202.88, "text": "Mentioned, it's things like equities, maybe a little bit of the property market, but also we think Bitcoin is going to be the actual long-term sustainable answer here. So I'm curious your view on that, and, I guess from your perspective, why would you see Bitcoin as the longer term answer?" }, { "speaker": "stack_hodler", "time": "53:38", "start": 3218.39, "text": "Yeah, for me, it's, it's pretty simple. It's, you know, the finite twenty-one million, growing network, more people being aware of it, versus the infinite fiat that we know is essentially going to have to de-be, debase over His debt problem, and that is also growing in awareness. People are figuring out, like, oh crap, these, you know, fiat bonds aren't, aren't the ideal place to hold wealth long term. there's this thing, Bitcoin, that's finite, that, also, I, I think going into a world of, more chaos, less cooperation, you, you really want this neutral, reserve asset that sort of step, steps back from all of these, conflicts internationally. So I, I think that, to me, that's, that I love that it's finite, I love that there's no counterparty risk, and I love that it's outside of any one jurisdiction. To me, that it makes it step, makes it stand apart. Maybe it's, it's there with gold, in a way, but we know how much easier it is to use Bitcoin, and how much more portable and divisible, et cetera, it is. So that's, yeah, that's why I love Bitcoin, and that's why I think it's a thing to hold long term." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "54:45", "start": 3285.31, "text": "Fantastic. Well, I think that's" }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "54:53", "start": 3293.14, "text": "Yeah," }, { "speaker": "stack_hodler", "time": "54:54", "start": 3293.72, "text": "I would just say, stay solvent, stack sats, and, be patient. You know, like Stephan said, things can take time to play out, and, expecting Bitcoin to go straight up to the moon is probably not the, not the expectation to set for yourself. But if you set your expectation of, \"I'm gonna hold this finite asset that has zero counterparty risk,\" and, you know, in the meantime, maybe I'll hold a little cash cushion so I sleep well at night, I think you'll be in great shape. So if you, yeah" }, { "speaker": "stack_hodler", "time": "55:23", "start": 3322.88, "text": "This" }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "55:23", "start": 3323.2, "text": "is really fun. Fantastic, thank you. Get the show notes at stephanelivera dot com slash three nine seven. Thanks for listening, and I'll see you in the Citadel." } ] }