{ "episodeId": "SLP619", "speakers": { "stephan": { "name": "Stephan Livera", "role": "host", "tag": "STEPHAN" }, "sina": { "name": "Sina", "role": "guest", "tag": "SINA" } }, "segments": [ { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "00:11", "start": 11.17, "text": "Hi everyone and welcome back to Stephan Livera podcast brought to you by Bold, the place for you to buy, sell and store your Bitcoin using a two of three vault over at getbold.io, that is for American listeners. Now joining me today is Sina, he is the COO and co-founder of Twenty First Capital, he's a business professor and researcher on Bitcoin. And economics, and I, I've been, enjoying some of his explanations on things, I thought it'd be an interesting podcast guest. So first of all, welcome to the show, Sina." }, { "speaker": "sina", "time": "00:39", "start": 38.57, "text": "Thanks, Oskar," }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "00:39", "start": 39.17, "text": "I'm excited to be with you today. Great. So, I know, you've been talking a lot about the power law and doing some statistics and some analysis on this. So I think that'll be an interesting one. I haven't done an episode on this yet, so, do you wanna just give us a bit of an overview on the power law and how it applies or, you know, the concept of power laws and how they apply to Bitcoin?" }, { "speaker": "sina", "time": "01:01", "start": 61.05, "text": "Yeah. So, just to give you a quick background, most of my, research focuses on, empirical analysis. So what I do is basically I find interesting business problems, and then I find data, and then I addre- and answer the question based on the data. So, essentially I'm a professional econometrician, but I haven't, I hadn't tried to do any of that for Bitcoin data, particularly because I saw, mostly in the last cycle, people were, over," }, { "speaker": "sina", "time": "01:36", "start": 95.62, "text": "I guess, overselling these tools, and, I saw so many of my friends, taking too much risks based on, weak models and so on, so I held off On that, but earlier this year, I guess I, I found, I found a solution, I found a model that appears to be doing well. Then I dig-dug deeper, I studied it myself, I checked a lot of the, you know, potential assumptions that are, that's behind it, and, and it, felt, reasonable and, robust, so I began working on it. Of course, I'm talking about the power law model. This is a, a model that demonstrates, a very, very simple equation that, describes the behavior of Bitcoin since day one. So essentially, power law. First of all, the name is a little bit confusing for someone who hears it for the first time. There's no law here. It's basically a power equation. So, you aren't-- you're modeling something not just in a linear fashion, you have a power curve, and it happens to be fitting the Bitcoin data very well. Just that law Forward has confused a lot of people. in statistics, there is no determinism. no one is saying that, the future of a complex system like Bitcoin is Determined by a line or something, we're simply trying to model the pattern. Now, what PowerLaw does is it finds a very interesting equation that shows the growth of Bitcoin. it fits very well, it passes a lot of the econometric tests, and it, it's a very good explanation for the average behavior of Bitcoin over the last fifteen years. Now, it doesn't, it doesn't say anything about bubbles, it only models the average, which you can think of a-average as sort of a fair value or some sort of a, you know, expected value, excluding all the bubbles. But, it also has good theory behind it, 'cause in econometric research, if you just show a model that fits the data, no one's gonna take it because there are many ways for a model to be fitting the data by chance. We have, issues like overfitting, for example, Plan B's model suffers from that one and many other issues that can happen. A lot of times you have, other sti-statistical challenges, you have indugenuity, you have all sorts of things that might make your line fitting the data very well, but not necessarily showing a systematic pattern. a very simple way, if you make your model super, super complex, it would be able to predict, match every fluctuation of Bitcoin over the last fifteen years, it's gonna have perfect predictive power, perfect R score on the, on the past data, but nothing for the future data. So, Power law, I have looked at this equation, for example, one of the simple things you can do is you can run, a partial data analysis, for example, you can build a model only up to 2016 data points, right? And then if you stop training the model there, g-- take the equation and try to, predict what was supposed to happen in the future, and then match that with the, with what actually happened, it's very, very interesting. It predicts with something within five or ten thousand dollars of difference the the model that you would get today. So it ends up exactly where we are today. What does that mean? It means that we are most likely not overfitting and, the model is just capturing something real. Now, what is that real thing? As I was saying, that's still not enough for me. I need to understand the mechanism. I need to understand the, the, the theory or the mechanism behind it. That, that uses logic. Like data itself isn't enough, you have to add logic on top of it. And then the power law as a theory, some of the work that Giovanni, for example, has done it, goes deeper into the, beyond just the price analysis and shows that all of this is actually happening because adoption is, is growing on a certain curve, and then price is actually a function of number of addresses as a proxy of adoption, following the Metcalfe's law. So, this all shows that it's actually adoption that's rapidly growing, and then network value is a function of adoption, and that's how it's, it, it's growing into the future. So, To summarize, if someone's interested in, in a model that shows the historical pattern of Bitcoin, the power law model is, is the best tool we have. Now, the second question is how, likely is this pattern to continue into the future? I guess that's where most of the questions, most of the, sort of discussion happens. There are some people who think, future is bound by this relationship. I think it's all probabilistic. I mean, if you want a base case, you can use this as a base case, but, there's p-plenty of variability around an average that you can model, and, some of the work that, that I've done also tries to model that variability around it and sort of- Come up with a reasonable boundary of outcomes. But as someone who does this for a living, data-- when you use data, you gotta be very Sort of careful and there, there are just avoid salesmen who try to use a model to sell you some trading tip or something like that. I see. Yeah." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "07:40", "start": 459.91, "text": "Okay. So, yeah, really interesting. I think A few things kind of come out to me there. As you said, there are times where maybe something fundamental has changed, right? Maybe something in the logic has changed. So I guess that would be maybe an example where hypothetically- There could be a change in the behavior of the growth of, you know, of Bitcoin, whether that is, use in terms of Bitcoin addresses or price in terms of obviously the exchange rate. so I guess- When it comes to assessing the power law or applying, you know, how we apply power law, how do you think about that? Like, what would be a breaking thing for you?" }, { "speaker": "sina", "time": "08:22", "start": 502.04, "text": "Yeah, so a, a bunch of things in there. first off, power law is, is modeling scale invariance. Essentially, it says Bitcoin's rate of growth Is constant as a function of age. For example, if age doubles, price should double. At least that's on average, again, without considering all the bubbles. So, the point is within the model, there is this, flexibility to account for accel- accelerating events, like some people say, \"What if, nation states adopt it?\" Okay, that's exactly how the cur- the upward sloping curve will continue. That's part of it The only reason, and a massive change that can happen to kind of derail the model from the historical pattern is if it's like massively more influential than, than we think, because for example, if you, if you follow a power law pattern, you are hitting a million dollar per, per coin by sometime around twenty thirty How, how is, how is that supposed to happen? By continuing the adoption as it's, as it has happened before. So far, we have a bunch of corporations, Wall Street, at least one country. The re- the way we get to one million is if more countries join and as if US builds this strategic reserve and so on. So some of these, some of these massive events are actually part of the pattern that Bitcoin has followed. we all expect hyperbitcoinization at some point, and these are all part of it. Now, if- If this ends up being massively more impactful, then you might see a deviation, but, at least for the past 15 years, we've had so many massive events, and they all kind of fall within the same Same pattern, of, of the explained by the parallel. Now, when would it fail? Failing is sort of a, again, a probabilistic thing. There's no point at which you can say something absolutely fails unless the model is Incorrect. It just gets less and less accurate, and you can measure accuracy by, by just looking at how, you know, the deviation between the line and the prediction, and you can use statistical metrics like R-squared. You can also use the, the, the test that I explained, earlier. So next year, for example, we can use the model that we have right now. We shouldn't really use new data, like we go and, Essentially fix our model now, wait until next year and see if the pattern of price followed what the model said last year. So, that, and again, follow is a pr-- again, i's a relativistic thing, right? It's all a matter of the percentage, right? So PowerLaw right now gives you an R score of ninety-five percent or something. well, if that drops to seventy percent, I'm just gonna say Power is only seventy percent accurate, so it just goes down further and further. And then with, with, with the wider band that it has, if the accuracy goes down again, you can say it, it's just not usable for any decision anymore." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "11:37", "start": 696.65, "text": "I see. Yeah. So as I'm reading you then, as an example, if the R squared drops below a certain value, then you might say, \"Okay, it just has a lot less explanatory power now compared to before.\" But I guess up until now, it has had relatively high R squared, and that's why you're talking about it and you believe it's, you know, at least Yeah, if it, if it, if" }, { "speaker": "sina", "time": "11:59", "start": 719.04, "text": "our score goes down to seventy percent, you're gonna say it's only seventy percent accurate, right? And then that thirty percent could, could lead to massively different outcomes, right? So, But it still doesn't mean it's useless at that point, it's explaining seventy percent, but seventy percent may just not be enough for the, the observer." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "12:20", "start": 739.93, "text": "I see, yeah. Okay, yeah. And you made some interesting points there as well that- Despite the fact that there could-- there, you know, have been these big events, whether that's, you know, government actions like China mining ban or, you know, the shutdown of Silogate and so on, or, FTX and all these various events that have occurred a-and I guess some of these events can happen on the, let's say, on the positive side and, and on the negative side. Nevertheless, it still, stayed, i-in, in, in those kind of averages, let's say." }, { "speaker": "sina", "time": "12:55", "start": 774.85, "text": "let me tell you why that happens. Because, you know, from someone I know, you are very, very deep into Austrian economics and, a-and we-- I, I kind of, I'm with you on that. We, we believe human behavior is very difficult to model. However, the reason some of Some patterns like this happens is there are physical boundaries in a system. For example, if you think about a city, for example, cities actually are famous for following a power law pattern. The reason is that, you know, at another ten percent, Growth in the size of a city is, is, it, it means completely different things over time. And, how can I say, like, adding ten thousand more people, is a lot harder when the city is small versus it's big. So as a city gets bigger, its ability to grow even grows faster, and it's all a proportion-proportional to the existing size. And if you actually draw a math model that, assumes growth Is a function of existing size, that's when you get a power law equation. And these are are basically explaining that in our world, you know, there's just how fast you can grow, there's a limit on how fast a system can grow because it needs to absorb resources from the outside, and that typically tends to be a function of its existing size. If you work out the ma-- all of that math, what comes out of that assumption is a power law behavior. Viruses behave like that. There's a lot of, you know, solar, the solar system objects in, in, in the cosmos behave like that. Human, some of the human systems, like a city, as I said, you know, individual people are un-unpredictable, but the pattern of growth of a city follows, You know, physical source, physical resources as well. Those resources put a boundary on how fast or how slow the system can grow." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "14:51", "start": 890.77, "text": "Yeah, really interesting. And, this is something I've been, I've been actually reading. I know Giovanni has been recommending this book, Scale. I believe the guy's name is Jeffrey West, and he, he mentioned some of those, examples you made. And the interesting one I found was as well, I think it comes back to what you were saying, that there's only so much, or there's only so much that it can grow by, and I guess that ha- maybe that just, there are certain natural limits or certain outside limits in terms of how many humans are gonna adopt this thing at one time. And so while we have these kind of crazy bubble and bear, seasons in Bitcoin, as we've seen, kind of these cycles, nevertheless, there's only so fast you can grow. so I guess- This, here's another question I'm, I'm curious to get your view. Does that-- does power law essentially imply like a diminishing returns, right? Like we should anticipate that the, you know, bitcoins, let's say Kaga is gonna taper down. Like that to me seems just very logical and intuitive that it should taper down over time, right? Like in the early years maybe it could grow like two hundred percent a year, but now it's gonna, it's gonna have to, you know, come down over time. Curious your view there." }, { "speaker": "sina", "time": "16:05", "start": 964.57, "text": "Yeah, I mean, go back to what we discussed earlier. What comes out of the model is, if the age doubles, price-- not double, price goes up by a certain factor. So the, the, the return, if you look at price return, is a function of age. Okay. And age, one, ten percent increase in age right now is about one year and a half, but previously it might have been a couple months, right? So if you look that way in, in terms of age, then the growth is actually constant. But if you look at the linear time, the annual return gets weaker and weaker every time, and this makes perfect sense because, latecomers join when the asset is larger and so it's more mature and there is just less potential as it grows because there is just a limited number of people you can, have joined the network, and as more and more people join, well, of course, the future potential is, is weaker, but that doesn't mean it's bad or less powerful. It's, it will still remain as the fastest horse. It's just not as fast as it was, and you can simply look at historical data Volatility has been going down massively, you can just feel it, plus you can also test it. You know, some of the work I've done actually, I've created graphs that shows how well and actually methodical volatility is coming down. And again, we all expected when Wall Street and all those passive buyers and all the, all the, you know, non-degen investors join, you should expect a lot less volatility And, and so Bitcoin will keep growing, but just more methodical in a more mature way, and that's actually a really good thing. That's what will attract many of the bigger, bigger participants." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "18:02", "start": 1082.49, "text": "I see. And it could also be that, you know, to your point about volatility, there will be certain investors, the bigger they are, the less volatility they are able to tolerate or handle. And so over time, Bitcoin's gonna grow obviously, and as volatility comes down, there'll be larger and newer investors who are able to deploy their capital in now because the volatility has come to a certain level that they are- You know, psychologically comfortable with or maybe their policy, you know, for various reasons, it makes them more comfortable now to invest. If you," }, { "speaker": "sina", "time": "18:34", "start": 1113.81, "text": "if you remember, Michael Saylor also c-c-introduced his own models. His models actually explicitly assume that the rate of return goes down. Perhaps his thing is like, right now we are at forty-five percent a year, in, in like twenty years from now, he's assuming we go down to twenty, twenty-five percent a year. Still at that point, I mean, consider- Sure, everything else, twenty years from now, we still are gonna be the best performing asset, and, that's just the data, but psychologically people wanna think next year we can go to one million. I'm fine with it if we do, but, I, I try to be realistic and then if it, if it happens, that's awesome." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "19:16", "start": 1155.58, "text": "Right. And so I think this is perhaps it, it can temper people's expectations for the bull run, because instead of people thinking, \"Oh yeah, we're going to a million for sure,\" or whatever, And look, some of that is just social media, it kind of exaggerates and it goes to the extremes. But in terms of what is a realistic expectation, what is a baseline for people to think about in terms of coming back to what we were saying, there's only so fast that it can grow, then maybe that's a more interesting way to look at it. Now, I know you've done some charts. Let me add one thing, go" }, { "speaker": "sina", "time": "19:46", "start": 1185.9, "text": "on. Just complete what you said. If you went back to the last cycle and say begin modeling Bitcoin when it was, at six So even before the beginning of the last bull run. A power law model would have predicted a top at, seventy K or something like that. that's pretty good then, 'cause it hit about sixty-nine K, right? It, yes, if you use a quantile model actually, yeah. So the ninety-ninth quantile would cross seventy thousand. Average would cross if I'm not, just calling from memory, with something like thirty or forty. Which the average actually ended up being thirty-two, but other models would have said, say, one eighty or two eighty or three hundred, five hundred. Sometimes, you know, you remember, like, two hundred thousand price target was considered like you were a bear if you said two" }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "20:39", "start": 1239.29, "text": "hundred thousand, right? In those days, like four years ago or whatever. No, do you wanna," }, { "speaker": "sina", "time": "20:43", "start": 1242.65, "text": "do you wanna be, excited and, feel great or do you wanna be right? It's all-- It's, it's, I, I guess Whatever works for people, but if you wanna be right, you gotta follow the data. And again, following the data doesn't-- shouldn't be dogmatic. It's all probabilities. You're just thinking, \"This system has behaved like this for the last fifteen years.\" Well, it's not impossible to change, but if you wanna begin at from a base case, this is a good place to start." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "21:09", "start": 1268.99, "text": "Back to the show in a moment. This show brought to you by CoinKite dot com, the creators of the best Bitcoin hardware security devices, such as the Coldcard Mark IV and the new Cold Use Bitcoin hardware security devices to keep our keys offline, our private keys offline. Now, the way these work is you can do that setup, write down your twelve or twenty-four words on those, the seed word cards, and keep that secure. Now, you can use this device to interact with the Bitcoin network using software such as Sparrow Wallet, Electrum, or Phactor Desktop or Nunchuk as a few examples. Now, you have a range of security features that you can use with these devices such as As passphrases, you can use seed x or, or my favorite is multi-signature. Now, if you're starting in a basic way, just start with the device and the USB-C cable, plug it directly to the computer and use it that way, and then later improve your setup. But I believe these devices are great at helping secure your coins, especially as you start to migrate up into multi-signature security. But don't be disheartened or don't be, scared away, they are accessible, and I think you actually do learn about Bitcoin in the process So to get yours, go to coinkite dot com, use code livera to get a discount on your cold card. The lead sponsor of this show is Bold, the best place to buy, sell, and save Bitcoin. For listeners in the US, Bold lets you secure your financial future with complete peace of mind by integrating a low fee Bitcoin only brokerage with next gen multisig vaults. With Bold, you can smash buy Bitcoin or set a DCA plan for only zero point nine nine percent fees and seamlessly deposit the Bitcoin direct to your Bold Vault. The Bold Vault is a two Four three collaborative multisig where you hold two keys and bold holds one as a redundant backup protecting against loss or theft. You can use Trezor, Ledger or cold card hardware wallets to spin up a bold vault in just a few minutes and the bold vault is the only collaborative custody vault available with zero monthly fees. They're also offering zero fees on your first ten thousand dollars of bitcoin buys and twenty five dollars of free bitcoin when you buy a hundred dollars of bitcoin or more. Try bold today and upgrade your stacking experience over at getbold dot io. And now, back to the show. Yeah, I think it makes a lot of sense to me. it is something I've, I've been sort of watching what you guys are saying and, Giovanni and, Plan C and a few people. I do, I actually do, I will be getting, Plan C, on as well, and I'll probably invite Geo on as well to talk to him at some point. But, I'd, yeah, if you could ex-explain a little bit on," }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "23:44", "start": 1423.76, "text": "this quantile model and 25, can you give us just an overview there? What, what is it showing or what are your, you know, what is the expectation roughly?" }, { "speaker": "sina", "time": "23:57", "start": 1437.43, "text": "So if you, if you begin with a power law model, it gives you an average value. average value goes through the middle point of the data, right? So in the top of the bull market and the bottom of the bear market, you go significantly around it. So, I began thinking about this deviation, and it again turns out that that deviation follows some rules. It just can't go an unlimited number higher or lower. However, the problem is just because volatility is coming down, in the original cycles, we could have gone massively higher than the average at the top and massively low- Or at the bottom, and each cycle that deviation has shrunk in the percentage terms. So, essentially the distribution of prices around that average is getting narrower and narrower, in percentage term, of course, in dollar value is getting wider So, our existing models, m-as like a regular regression model, can only model the average and, it's assuming equal variance over time. And so you can come up with some ba-bands that tell you, like, well, what's the expected range of values, in one sigma around the mean? But that has a big assumption of equal variance over time, which is clearly violated. So what I'm trying to do with the quantile model is, is just relaxing that assumption and coming up With lines, with, with fi- with, regression lines that, are optimized such a way that they capture, say, the top per- top five percent of the data or top ten percent or the bottom five percent and so on, and you can use all these quantiles to get a full view of the possible, distribution over time. Now, so you can run that now and then ex- and then extrapolate it into future and see what are the po-potential values that we might see next year or next cycle and so on. For example, something like that would tell, would tell, would show that next, at by the end of next year, we are looking at numbers between the lowest absolute thing is fifty-five K and the maximum is two eighty-eight. So that, like, if today we completely change our course and go down to a bear market, pattern, at least if we- Follow historical pattern, huge if, if we follow that pattern, we go back to fifty-five, the, the worst, and then if we, no, if we continue bull market like previous cycles i-i-it's possible that we get, we, we get to two eighty-eight, but all those numbers have some probabilities around them. So like probability of getting to one fifty is a lot higher than, getting to two eighty-eight. and so on, and, and probability of getting more than two eighty-eight also exists, it's not zero, right? There is a probability of getting to five hundred thousand, it's just too small, right? And I'm cutting it off at, ninety-nine percent, so, so essentially anything that's less than one percent likely, I'm not including it, but it's not technically impossible. Does that make sense? So it gives me a range of probabilities, and probability is very important. I mean, it, it helps me move away from single targets like which are really hard to, to understand and nail. And I actually don't like single targets because that gives, people who are less familiar with statistics the wrong idea. Like, just this guy says this number, so let's go open a leveraged trade that relies on that number, and then we get all liquidated if it doesn't happen. so but a probabilistic view is much more honest because anything is possible, right? It's just you can do your best to come up with different likelihood of those events." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "27:40", "start": 1659.96, "text": "I see, yeah. I, it makes a lot of sense then. So I guess what it, i-- is it right then to say the power law trend line sort of for the, for the end of next year, for the end of twenty twenty-five is approximately one hundred and fifty thousand, and is that roughly what y-you were saying as well, because that's kind of the most likely, or the, the, yeah, the most likely outcome based on that quantile analysis?" }, { "speaker": "sina", "time": "28:06", "start": 1686.16, "text": "Yeah, I mean, the, the average will be there, right? But if you are-- but that's just the average, right? average basically you can think of it as combining the bull and, and the bear together, that should give you the, average. But a lot of people are interested in the top. Top could be significantly more than average, right? But again, if the pattern continues, you will touch that top and then you will come back down to the average line, and then further, if it-- if you get into a bear market, you go below Right. So I'm much more interested in the average metric 'cause that to me is the real growth of the network minus the FOMO. But, what gets people excited is, is that maximum price typically, which is Going to be much higher than one fifty, I believe." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "28:52", "start": 1732.47, "text": "I see, yeah. And so, I guess there's also a few assumptions we're kind of baking into this as well, because that is, again, we're kind of baking in the assumption that, oh, we're gonna hit the top end of next year. Like, what if it goes longer? Like, what if we don't do that, or what if we hit the top earlier and then we go into a bear cycle? You know, like, we don't, we don't, none of us knows these things, but we're Our, our brains are patternning off past cycles where it was kind of happening towards the end of the year." }, { "speaker": "sina", "time": "29:21", "start": 1760.79, "text": "And that's a huge, huge assumption because, it is possible that we don't get si-exactly similar patterns, of cycles. a lot of things are changing. Cycles have been typically happening in the past because of the massive effect of havings, right? And if you look at the having, the way I like to think of it is a new buyer coming in and just doubling the, It's buys, right? So it's like a permanent seller now sells half, so it's a constant bid. And of course, it's, it's, it's kind of a smaller amount every day, but it adds up. So after several months after the halving, you will begin to see that rise. And then that rise begins a flywheel of the self-perpetuating cycle. Price goes up, more people learn about it, more people join, more money comes in, expectation goes even higher, and then it just goes higher and higher and faster and faster until it saturates all the resources. Remember we said there's just so much resource you can attract at any point in time. It all saturates that, and then there's just no more new people that are likely at the, at this moment to join, and that's when all the, last, latest people who joined, assuming that They're gonna get a Lambo next week, they, they see oh price actually not going up and actually beginning to turn. They, they sell, new other people sell, more people sell, and then the bubble breaks. So, but that, that may not happen, exactly like that moving forward because first of all, the asset is much more mature, so the, latecomer, latecomers may not have that much of a Effect causing the price to go massively higher or lower, if you remember last cycle, just one tweet from Elon would, would move us by ten thousand dollars. now, it's, the asset is a lot more mature and it's going up very methodically, if you've noticed in the last few weeks, we aren't getting we aren't getting the corrections as much as people would have expected. It's just a very slow growth. it's a lot less volatile, a lot of people are waiting for a crash or correction at one hundred, we will see, but so far the, the market just doesn't let you, get an, get a, get a correction, it's quickly bought up. And, it is possible that mining effect is loses its importance moving forward, 'cause every cycle it's actually also getting less and less influential. And instead, who will have an impact is, you know, big, big Wall Street, investors and, and nation states and other big actors. If you look at the ETF action this year, in some of the days, one day of purchase of ETFs accounted for one month of the supply coming from miners. So they're just getting less, relevant. And I think it's actually the psychological effect is what's left." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "32:12", "start": 1932.16, "text": "Yeah, I think that could be right. And I, I, I think maybe people are now making too much of the mining factor, or at least the halving effect now, because I think we're reaching a point where- You know, in the early years of Bitcoin, it was, you know, fifty Bitcoin per block, right? And then it was twenty-five Bitcoin per block after four years. And so the, a lot of the supply was, let's say, issued in the first few years of Bitcoin. Now it's less of a factor now. So I think what I see is a lot of people just kind of assuming, \"Oh, the miners are the only natural sellers, and that's it, and, you know, that's, that's, that's done, right?\" It's like, it's too rough of an analysis, and I think what would be better is to actually think more about, well, hang on, what about long-term holders? Because there's like a massive amount of long-term holders who maybe some of them are gonna be selling pieces of Bitcoin as it goes up, and this is also where maybe we're get-getting more into like the- The, you know, on-chain analysis sort of work where they look at, okay, when was the la-- when did this coin last move and what's the realized price instead of the, you know, these kinds of metrics, SOPA and Nupol and these kinds of things, where they are looking at some of those other metrics, and I think that is a much more, much more detailed analysis and much more, let's say, high-resolution view instead of just saying, \"Oh, the miners are only selling half what they could before.\" Yeah," }, { "speaker": "sina", "time": "33:35", "start": 2014.97, "text": "yeah. A very simple way to think of it market of fifty people. If you had two permanent sellers, they would be important, but if you, you put those two people in, in a market of a thousand buyers and sellers, they just get less relevant, you know, if they sell more or sell less, all of that will be diluted by the other action from everyone else. So, and, and again, that's a sign of maturity of the market, like it just gets much more liquid, one seller, one buyer, a bunch of sellers, bunch of buyers don't really matter much unless you have a global factor." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "34:10", "start": 2049.89, "text": "Now, I guess one other big question that a lot of people will have is, okay, so Assume we accept, you know, the power law and Bitcoin, applying, you know, for Bitcoin price. What about the underlying denominator? What about if the fiat-- if something happens on the fiat inflationary side, if, you know, the US government were to print a lot more money over the next- Ten or twenty years. Do, do you think that could change it, right? Like if the idea is the underlying denominator were to change dramatically?" }, { "speaker": "sina", "time": "34:42", "start": 2082.5, "text": "Yeah, that's, that's a really good question, and we hear that a lot. I'll, I'll give you a, a few answers. One of them is like my, my good friend Sminston with on Twitter just did an analysis yesterday showing that if you adjust for inflation, the just w- as an example, the time you get to one million coin moves, three years back. So that's all the effect of adjustment for inflation could have had. So that's one approach. The other approach is what I would say is like the power law model is created on, on the debasing fiat. So the, the, the target is just the dollar. So the, the debasement is already part of the trend. Now, if that debasement significantly increases or decreases, of course, things will change, and, Smitson analysis shows that it can move away, it can move the targets by a few years, but it wouldn't completely Destroy the pattern. The other thing I would say is the, the whole theory and logic and the mechanism goes through the adoption, right? So if fiat debases or other things happen, You are basically finding a certain adoption pattern. If inflation of fiat goes from seven percent to ten percent, you're still looking at the value of a network as a function of adoption, and if dollar is, you know, significantly less valuable, it just it doesn't change the value of Bitcoin itself, it's just gonna nominally change what you see on the chart. So still Bitcoin is still gonna be a function of the, adoption and number of people and inflation might impact it, as I said, but I don't see like massive, change" }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "36:27", "start": 2187.28, "text": "Interesting, yeah. And I guess in the" }, { "speaker": "sina", "time": "36:29", "start": 2189.02, "text": "last fifteen years, we've already included, I think, yeah, I think if you go by Saifedean's measures, fiat is devaluing by seven percent, that's already there. Now it suddenly that becomes much different. Well, you just can't use dollar to value Bitcoin anymore, a-and a power law pattern could also be shown a bit against gold or something else." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "36:52", "start": 2211.73, "text": "I see, yeah. and it's probably also fair to say there was a lot of money printing during the COVID era, and, you know, the power law was still, it's, it's, you know, from what you're telling me, it sounds like it was still, you know, maintaining a high R squared or still, still showing, a good explanatory power. So I guess, we might, we might see the same again and, and, you know, maybe there are other elements there as well that maybe, there are other explanations as well" }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "37:21", "start": 2241.25, "text": "There's not gonna be like this kind of extreme hyperinflation of the dollar, but rather less fiat credit will be, will be issued such that there, you know, the money creation won't necessarily be that crazy, and then maybe it kind of, it all balances out in a way. Maybe there, there are kind of countervailing forces there. So for all we know, right? but it is interesting, that, I think the power law, it might also allow us to, as I said, temper our" }, { "speaker": "sina", "time": "37:46", "start": 2265.83, "text": "expectations. No, you know, it's just like we pattern. But inflation would just make your, ruler, dysfunctional. So that doesn't really matter for the pattern of growth of your system, right? It's just your measurement gets destroyed that way It's another way to think about it. Yeah," }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "38:09", "start": 2288.85, "text": "but I, but I guess it would just mean, it would, I guess the point would be sort of like, okay, yes, that, that could happen, but it would just mean Then, you know, the-- if something fundamental has changed, then maybe it changes the logic, you know, that, that, that would be-- that maybe i-i-in the going forward, maybe it's not as applicable, you know, that, I guess that would be the way I'm thinking about it. I would agree with that. I would agree." }, { "speaker": "sina", "time": "38:33", "start": 2313.37, "text": "If we get into a hyperinflationary phase, I would agree fundamentals of Bitcoin changes. Yeah. So suddenly, like the, the use case, the benefit, all that just gets known or much more acceptable to many more people. So that's a, that's a huge change, I would say." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "38:50", "start": 2329.92, "text": "Yeah." }, { "speaker": "sina", "time": "38:51", "start": 2330.52, "text": "But, I mean," }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "38:51", "start": 2331.1, "text": "nevertheless, despite all the crazy events, and I mean, there have been many, right? Whether we're talking exchange failures, government, you know, either bans or adoption events, you know, there have been so many big events, and despite all these, what, what, over the last, whatever, fifteen or almost sixteen years now It still maintained this high R squared, so I guess it, it is kind of an interesting, yeah, to me it is interesting. I just, I guess I have a fascination about it now. I'll tell you after," }, { "speaker": "sina", "time": "39:19", "start": 2359.45, "text": "after like twenty thirteen, after eleven years of, professional data analytics on business datasets, this is the first time I see some, something like this. I still had, I had a hard time to believe that a financial system can, can kind of follow a pattern like this. And that's why I spent so much time trying to kind of r- rationalize the, the logic and understand the logic. But the pattern is crazy, honestly. in the bottom of the COVID crash, remember it was a fifty percent crash, right? It, it only went down to quantile one, so it didn't actually, if, if you did have a, quantile model at that point, th-all that crash would just get you down to quantile one, essentially the minimum that it would have predicted. And these models aren't created after the fact, these, they would-- this would be the same model that you would have created a few years back. And, again, I just did a test, a few months back. a model that you would have created in twenty sixteen would have predicted an average of seventy-five by a, a few months back, which was exactly the price we were at. So something h-is happening here. Again, my best explanation is just the way each one of us are one node in the network, as in the social network. Each one of us are, are orange peeling a few people, and we just- We can't, you know, double our productivity or cut our productivity. We are-- on average, we are operating at a certain level in terms of our effectiveness to spread the word, and that just causes Bitcoin to follow a certain pattern in its growth." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "40:59", "start": 2459.46, "text": "This show brought to you by mempool.space, the world's leading Bitcoin visualizer, and now they've got an accelerator program. So if you have a transaction that you sent at a fee that was too low to get confirmed, now you can fix this with the mempool accelerator. The way it works, you can go and search your transaction, scroll down, click accelerator, and you don't need an account, you can pay with Lightning, and then it'll show you it's now in the process of being accelerated, and then after a few minutes, it's confirmed. And so this is a great way" }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "41:29", "start": 2489.2, "text": "And this can happen where maybe your wallet doesn't have RBF or CPFP, or it might help you in situations where it's impractical to go and re-sign, so for example, multi-sig with keys in different locations. And thirdly, even in some Lightning scenarios, perhaps a forced close, you might not be able to use RBF, and so in this case, the Mempool Accelerator can help you out. So keep it in mind, and you can find out more over at mempool.space/accelerator. Yeah, fascinating. Yeah. So I think, It's a good overall guideline, but, certainly I'm not saying, everyone go and bet your life on this or trade on it or anything like that, but, I just find it interesting, to sort of understand a little bit about, okay, what is the range of kind of within the probability, what's kind of a realistic thing that could happen versus kind of crazy, outlandish ideas. I mean, if you own a business," }, { "speaker": "sina", "time": "42:23", "start": 2543.01, "text": "if you own a business, you would look at the growth of your demand in the last four- Five or ten years, and you see, okay, our demand has grown by ten percent a year and so on. And that's a great base case if you wanna have an investment in the future in your business, that's a wonderful base case, but that definitely doesn't mean dramatic change can't happen." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "42:42", "start": 2562.24, "text": "Of course. Yeah, and that's, yeah, it's important for people to, know that also. So I guess switching up a little bit, there's been a lot of discussion about MicroStrategy. I know you were commenting a little bit here and there, so I thought it'd be good to get your some of your thoughts. I guess- Let, let me just sort of set the, okay, so just, you know, so people know when we're recording this, it's November 21st, 2024. Bitcoin price, as we speak now, it's about ninety-eight, actually kind of getting close to ninety-nine thousand, but, and MicroStrategy is about, four hundred and sixty-six. Let me just quickly check the exact-- about four hundred and forty-four dollars as I, you know, speak right now. If you checked" }, { "speaker": "sina", "time": "43:20", "start": 2600.22, "text": "yesterday, it would be like five hundred and forty or something, but Right." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "43:23", "start": 2603.42, "text": "Yeah. So it's quite volatile right now. and so there's been a lot of kind of, I guess some people are really bullish on MicroStrategy and other people are sort of really critical of it and saying, \"Why, why is there this, you know, multiple or premium?\" so do you want to just offer any of your thoughts? How are you thinking about this" }, { "speaker": "sina", "time": "43:44", "start": 2624.05, "text": "Yeah, it's fascinating. you know, go-- reminds me of, s-- sometime in twenty twenty-one, early twenty twenty-one or late twenty twenty, I was considering to buy some MicroStrategy. I ran the numbers, I realized that, okay, I'm paying a lot more for every Bitcoin that's in this bucket, so I passed on it. And it actually turned out to be a great, choice because after that we entered, actually, MicroStrategy couldn't keep that spread. It actually, went back down Down to a, net asset value of almost one, fluctuating around that, and also kept all of that during the bear market, so it ended up like feeling the theory that MicroStrategy should have, should be valued according to the Bitcoin they have made sense. S- at some point earlier this year, net asset value was, was higher than what the market would have priced essentially what the s-the market had was, was assigning a negative value to the rest of the business, right? And that, would have been a great, great buy opportunity, but, Other than that, people have really hard time understanding why MicroStrategy would trade at a premium, and I had, as I said, I had that issue too, but I never thought about it. I'm a hardcore Bitcoiner. I, I just moved out of everything fiat, everything tradfi after I learned about Bitcoin, and I'm just, I haven't, I haven't looked back except very recently. Or maybe for buying a new house or something like that. Otherwise, most of my wealth is, all the time in Bitcoin. And so I just ignored it, but recently I looked at it and I began, began to understand it, more and more. so essentially what's happening is," }, { "speaker": "sina", "time": "45:33", "start": 2733.14, "text": "yes, if you buy MicroStrategy right now, you're paying three times, more than three times the value of Bitcoin per share So that sounds like a bad deal. However, there are some reasons for this. At least there are reasons for, a little bit of premium, and then you can debate whether premium of three is fine or ten is fine or two, but there should be a premium for a few reasons. First of all, MicroStrategy is offering something that is- That TradFi investors don't have access to otherwise, like many of the institutions, like based on just rules and, and their charter and so on, they can't buy Bitcoin itself, they can't buy any commodity, some, some even can't buy an ETF, but they can buy a company, right? So That is some co-kind of, a friction or e-inefficiency in our tradfi system, right? It's, it's, it doesn't make sense from a pure economic perspective. It's kind of a, it's kind of an artificial limit that government regulation has created or even institutional, rules, but that causes MicroStrategy to trade at a premium 'cause it's, it's benefiting from an arbitrage opportunity that, some of the TradFi create, they create for TradFi, participants. Other than that, they also, come up with this super interesting oil refinery analogy, and they say, \"Okay, we take Bitcoin and securid- securitize it, and we turn it into a variety of products. So one of the products they make is a convertible note. So convertible notes allows you to buy MicroStrategy bonds that guarantee, you know, your money's not gonna be lost, whatever happens to Bitcoin. You're gonna get a, a, a very small amount of, return on your money, but the downside is eliminated. But because it's convertible, your upside is also unlimited because after a certain amount of time, you can convert your bond to MicroStrategy shares. So to some investors, this is massive. If you- You are not as, as much sold on the value proposition of Bitcoin itself, but you wanna bet on the upside. This isn't a bad thing. You're, you're buying bonds which, is, is very attractive to, to many institutions, but you're also allowing yourself to benefit from the possible explosion in price of MicroStrategy, which is actually happening. So those bonds are actually outperforming everything, and I, I think last time I heard, some of them even have outperformed Bitcoin itself. A, a bond. So, that's just because, you know, it, it kind of gives risk-averse participants a way to join Bitcoin. So, and then MicroStrategy has many other things, like they have very, very active, options trading market. Their options are, you know, some of the hottest, the volume is just massive. up until a couple days ago, you couldn't have options on, ETFs, so MicroStrategy was the unique tool for that. And, plus they also have a software business. Software business isn't anything stellar, it's not growing as fast as it should and so on, but it's operating and it's generating some cash flow and it's a good base. It's something, it's a good base to have. And, and then ano-the last thing I'll say is, MicroStrategy can do several things. Even if you're buying your Bitcoin at three times price, All the e-e-everything that I explained allows MicroStrategy to borrow a lot of cheap money. Like just recently, I think they were talking about the zero percent con-converts. If you get something like that, it's basically like you get five years of f-five or three, four years depending on the contract, five years of free money And then you're gonna get all the benefit, all the appreciation of the Bitcoin, and then the bondholder can only convert them to shares at a premium, like another thirty or forty percent premium to the latest price, so it's not really diluted for existing shareholders either. And this kind of financial engineering thing, which is, you know, an art-artifact of the way the fiat world works, ca- allows MicroStrategy to have more Bitcoin per share. So if you are today You know, overpaying for some amount of Bitcoin, it's not like you're buying an ETF, it's, you're buying a share of MicroStrategy's business, which means you own today's Bitcoin plus all the future Bitcoin. So depending on the way you wanna look at it, MicroStrategy will accumulate more and more Bitcoin per share. They can do all the things that I said, like cheap money borrowing and so on. They can also generate some, they can also build a business model on their Bitcoin and just generate more- Or more cash flow. They might get into lending their Bitcoin, us Bitcoiners may not like this, but they might do this for a yield of four, five percent. If you just compound all of these for like ten, twenty years You'll see, today's Bitcoin is actually gonna be so many more bitcoins per share in the future, and that's a basis for a premium. Now, you can argue whether three x premium is, is high or low, but when market is crazy, no one cares about valuation, especially like super, A super, you know, leveraged, speculative players, the kind of GameStop crowd, they don't care about these things for the short term, but over time we might come back to a more reasonable premium. But my argument is the premium isn't one to one, it, it must be higher because MicroStrategy is just benefiting from some- An arbitrage opportunity right now." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "51:21", "start": 3081.01, "text": "Yeah, interesting. And I, I think the way I would, let's say, summarize, you know, who is doing this, one, it's people who want levered exposure to Bitcoin. I think as Michael has, has explained, you can loosely think of it as like a one point five x or maybe a two x of Bitcoin to people who want leverage, levered exposure. And two, people who can't otherwise buy Bitcoin, right? So there might be people who have their funds caught in some retirement account. I know people in the UK have that issue, Might be bond traders or others who either have a fund mandate or maybe some kind of legal mandate that stops them, from directly buying Bitcoin, so this is their way in. And then, as you mentioned, they might want a way to get exposure that they can't otherwise, and then the other aspect is it's, it's zero fee compared to an ETF, so, you know, that, that's also a, a something there. But in fairness, people would argue that, Over time, it-- there's kind of an implied amount that MicroStrategy would be able to stack, and maybe once it gets to like ridiculous levels that they theoretically would cap-- would capture in the future, it's sort of like, well, they're, they're unlikely to reach that size. But then maybe the argument is, okay, well, we're just gonna see this, whatever we're calling it, premium or multiplier, sort of expand and contract depending on, let's say, where the market is, right? If we're in a crazy bull market, okay, yeah, maybe the, the In a bear cycle, it's gonna come back down. What do you think?" }, { "speaker": "sina", "time": "52:47", "start": 3166.8, "text": "Exactly, I think, well, it's empirically speaking, it's a levered play on Bitcoin right now if you buy it by the stock, it just, does better in the bull market and, at least what we've seen is it should do much worse in the bear market. So in a bear market, it might come back down to a premium of one or close to it. But in a bull market, there is just very difficult to figure out like how high it can go. Like I said, there is some fundamental justification for higher numbers, but it might just be much, much higher what, what the amount people will pay when the FOMO kicks in, you know, no one, no one cares about fundamentals. but, just use our imaginations. Like, imagination. MicroStrategy is already an AI and software business, right? What is it to stop them from developing some fascinating use case or business model based on Bitcoin they, they hold? Maybe they come up with a Bitcoin bank, maybe they, I don't know, they create a application and all that, that just can generate much more cash flow, much more interesting, business activity on top of their Bitcoin, right? So it's, it should- It shouldn't be understood as, as just a basket of Bitcoin. It's, it's a whole business." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "54:00", "start": 3239.98, "text": "Right. Yeah. And as you said, it comes-- and as I've said also, it comes back to, they have access to very, very cheap capital. That's not something everyday individuals like you and I have. So there's something-- there's some value to being able to do that and use this as part of their model. Now, I guess one interesting question I have you, obviously as you're also a-- as you're a fan of the Power Law. The power law, in terms of Bitcoin price power law, I guess it kind of coming to our earlier discussion, there's only so fast it can grow. And so, you know, on, based on, you know, let's say four or five years out, what if it eventually gets to a place where, you know, the, the- Let's say the price that the bond, traders, are buying that to get an option, you know, it effectively is like at a price that implies, you know, is implying much, much higher Bitcoin price than what the power law would allow Bitcoin to reach in five years. I'm curious if you, you know, if you, if that has played into, or if you, how you think" }, { "speaker": "sina", "time": "54:59", "start": 3299.15, "text": "about" }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "54:59", "start": 3299.33, "text": "that." }, { "speaker": "sina", "time": "55:00", "start": 3299.59, "text": "You're just, you're saying in terms of MicroStrategy's growth potential, right? Yeah. So, yes, I think- you know, one of the basic ways to think about that premium is, it's how, how much Saylor can accumulate over time, right? So, to justify a premium of three, you should assume that there's a Bitcoin yield of five or six percent a year for twenty-five years. So if Saylor can acu- can increase Bitcoin per share by five or six percent for a really, really long time, then the Bitcoin- That I buy today with my shares is just gonna be tripled. So a premium of three will be justified there. But that's only assuming if Michael Saylor can increase the Bitcoin holdings by, by that amount all, all the time. But that's just gonna be less and less possible over time And I don't know if that inflection point happens after ten years, after fifteen years, but a-after some point, price will just go so high and, The rate of return will, will go so low that you have to adjust some of these things. Now suddenly maybe at that point you'll say, okay, Sailor would only be able to add one percent B-BTC yield per year, and then that would just make the the discounted cash flow analysis that you, you could have run previously completely different, and then maybe at that point it was much smaller nav, nav premium is justified, yeah. So totally I agree with that. but at the moment, at least for the next couple of years, that's, that may not be in play. They're still in the, you know, in the very, very early stages of this whole thing. In the realistic range," }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "56:45", "start": 3405.48, "text": "yeah. And I'm curious your thoughts on if other companies start doing the same playbook? Will that, you know, hurt or help MicroStrategy, right? W-would it be that they're gonna start also tapping that same market that maybe-- but maybe Micro-- or do you think maybe MicroStrategy has certain things that make it unique even amongst, you know, the other companies that are also trying that same playbook?" }, { "speaker": "sina", "time": "57:13", "start": 3433.29, "text": "A bunch of things, so one part of the game is, yes, demand will be diluted, like, if, if you have a lot more access to a lot more ways to play Bitcoin, you may like MicroStrategy a little bit less. However, it's a very interesting dynamic because if more and more institutions do the same thing first of all, they can never catch MicroStrategy, and the more they buy, they're just pumping MicroStrategy's bags. So the gap will never close. They're just so far ahead of everyone else that other people can only just join, and then all they do is just pump MicroStrategy further. So I can see a scenario where just this marginally, it might get a little bit harder for MicroStrategy to acquire, new investors, but This will only happen after their, their price has pumped significantly because everyone else has joined, right? So it's, it's, it's a very interesting dynamic. It's not like regular competition where all your competitors take away from your power. Actually, more people join, Bitcoin gets more valuable. All that makes MicroStrategy more valuable and, people liking it more. And there's- there's also some value and scale they have. They, they will always be the much, much larger than everyone else, and that allows them to have much better, publicity, much better base. Again, if you think about like different business models that they, that they can, apply to their Bitcoin holdings, all that will be a lot more efficient when you have a lot more Bitcoin. So, I don't see that as a like material issue for MicroStrategy." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "58:56", "start": 3535.71, "text": "Yeah, and I think it's really fascinating, in terms of like how this is interplaying with Bitcoin and MicroStrategy. Now, I mean, the way I'm seeing it is, look, there might be a lot of new people who might first hear about MicroStrategy before they go and learn Bitcoin, and so maybe this is their pathway to also actually learn about Bitcoin. now, of course, maybe some people will kind of get wrecked, I don't know, like, I mean, it is Sword, so I'm certainly, not saying, you know, get rid of your cold storage Bitcoin. I think your cold storage Bitcoin, you know, should-- is the must, you know, for everyone who can afford to and technically achieve it. I think cold storage Bitcoin is the best way, so just an important, reminder for people, but I just find it an interesting discussion to see what happens there and will there be more news, as an example, if MicroStrategy gets included into an index or, you know, are there gonna be passive flows? I mean, there's just so many things that could happen over the next year or two that, make it really, really wild." }, { "speaker": "sina", "time": "59:56", "start": 3596.25, "text": "But I'll tell you a couple things. some of us Bitcoiners might, Might, get FOMO when MicroStrategy is going up so fast, but I have a good message, positive message for you. The higher MicroStrategy goes, and the more premium they have on the price, the only reason they have premium is that investors are counting on MicroStrategy to be able to use that premium to sell shares at a much higher price to investors to buy Bitcoin. So if that premium is so much higher, all that means is over time, that will f-- that will just pump- Your own Bitcoin, right? So, it's basically like MicroStrategy goes up first, but all that value ends up getting channeled back into the network and every one of us benefit from MicroStrategy's success. So if the premium goes higher, we'll experience the effect, it's just low-- slowly, much, much more slowly. Yeah, as you said." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "01:00:55", "start": 3655.09, "text": "So I guess in other words, as MicroStrategy's price, you know, pumps higher and higher, Saylor and the team at MicroStrategy have an incentive to go and do equity ATM at the market offering You know, issue more shares and then go buy more Bitcoin, which, as you said, yeah, raises the price of Bitcoin, obviously. And so that's, an interesting dynamic to watch, and it's kind of interesting that they've got two sides of the thing, of the game to play, right? They've got the equity side and the debt side, and they're, they're playing both sides of that. So as, you know, this recent, announcement, where they are gonna do a, I think it was twenty-one billion of equity and twenty-one billion of like on top of that as well." }, { "speaker": "sina", "time": "01:01:40", "start": 3700.17, "text": "Yeah, it's the first time the fiat Ponzi is helping Bitcoin. So it's, you know, it's, it's very famous for people who haven't done the research to call MicroStrategy a Ponzi, mostly like the traditional analysts, but in fact, it is a Bitcoin business connected, plugged into the fiat Ponzi. So, I mean, it's what you guys created for yourself, and, MicroStrategy is just leveraging it to buy Bitcoin, and it's a very interesting, it has changed the game. I mean, it's completely changed the game. Someone can issue shares and still make every share more valuable. It's, it's just crazy." }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "01:02:18", "start": 3738.72, "text": "Yeah, it's kind of mind-blowing to think about, really. so look, I think we're getting to the end of the time, but, yeah, I wanna thank you for joining and, listeners, go and check out Sina over at Twenty-First Capital and, also, y-you have a show, it's called Best, Best Bitcoin Data Analysis, is it? Or- Best Bitcoin Data Show, is it? Yeah. Yes. So, yeah, listen, just go and check that out." }, { "speaker": "sina", "time": "01:02:41", "start": 3761.85, "text": "You can look at our website, and, we are on YouTube and also on X, we have a community of best Bitcoin data. Mo- mostly what we, what we do there is like data analytics, but the core side of our business is also custody. So we talked about MicroStrategy and everything, but at heart, I believe, It's, it's self custody that matters, right? So we are offering self custody tools, as well. You can check that out on everything is on our website. Definitely check it. And you can also join our, mailing list where we send occasional, analysis and, and, updates on that. Fantastic. Alright, well, listeners," }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "01:03:22", "start": 3802.91, "text": "links will be in the show notes" }, { "speaker": "sina", "time": "01:03:24", "start": 3804.05, "text": "and see you now. Thank you for joining" }, { "speaker": "stephan", "time": "01:03:24", "start": 3804.97, "text": "me today." }, { "speaker": "sina", "time": "01:03:25", "start": 3805.87, "text": "Thank you very much. It was a fantastic chat." } ] }